Georgia Governor Polls 2022: Brian Kemp beats Stacey Abrams

Election Day Updates

Counting

  • Brian Kemp: 53.2%
  • Stacey Abrams: 46.2%

Exit Polls

  • Men: Kemp 59%, Abrams 40%
  • Women: Kemp 48%, Abrams 51%

Kemp outperformed Walker by 3% among women and 4% among Men.


Georgia Governor Polls 2022: The incumbent Brain Kemp is set to return as Governor of Georgia once again. In the latest poll, he is ahead of Abrams by 6 points.

Georgia Governor Polls (Average of last 3 polls): Brian Kemp 51%, Stacey Abrams 45%

Google Search Trends: Brian Kemp 44%, Stacey Abrams 56%
Social Media Sentiment: Brian Kemp -53.7%, Stacey Abrams -17.9%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Kemp to Win by a minimum 5% margin.


Georgia is one of the biggest battleground states in 2022, hosting an extremely competitive Senate and Governor races on November 8th, 2022. The Governor’s race is a rematch between a hard-core conservative governor Brian Kemp and a nationally reckoned voting-rights activist Stacey Abrams.

The two had a close contest in 2018 where Abrams nearly pulled off a historical blue flip in Georgia. Both Kemp and Abrams are poles apart in their ideologies and are now set to face each other in November midterms.

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on May 24, 2022. Brian Kemp won the GOP Primary defeating Trump-endorsed candidate David Perdue while Stacey Abrams won the Democratic Party’s Primary election with undisputed votes.

Georgia Governor Race: Prediction Table

Who is Leading?
PollsBrian Kemp
Google SearchBrian Kemp
Social Media SentimentStacey Abrams

Who is winning the Governor Race in Georgia? Observations and Insights

1. Recent Polling shows Abrams trailing behind her Republican opponent, incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp with a little more than a month until the November election.

2. Kemp and Abrams are campaigning against each other for the second time after their 2018 faceoff where the republican governor scored a narrow victory by 1.4 points. However much has changed since then, Republican Governor Brian Kemp has established a strong incumbency for himself through his swift COVID response. He won the Republican Primary by 50 points despite being on Trump’s bad side. Stacey Abrams on the other hand played a pivotal role in Georgia’s historic blue flip in the 2020 Presidential elections.

3. A detailed analysis of Polling numbers reveal that during the 2018 elections Abrams was somewhat at par with Kemp on an average of polls. While the polling numbers for the 2022 midterms are dominated by incumbent Governor Brian kemp.

4. Kemp has a net favorable rating of 5% among voters while Stacey Abrams stands at -4%.

5. A major challenge for Abrams in November would be to counter the incumbent Governor’s goodwill due to which she is losing even the democratic-leaning votes. This was quite evident in Georgia‚Äôs May primaries when a notable number of Blue-leaning voters had cast red ballots to help Kemp trounce his Trump-endorsed challenger.

6. Abram’s polling numbers are declining as November approaches and are not justifiable to her strong democratic image or her excessive spending advantage.

7. Stacey Abrams has raised around $49 million while the incumbent governor has raised over $31 million for his reelection campaign. According to the fundraising profile of Stacey Abrams, only around 14% of donations are made by Georgians, while most of it comes from wealthy coastal democrats, especially from California. While her counterpart Brian Kemp has raised over 83% of his funds from in-state donors.

8. The Republicans have been aggressive and their policies against crimes have been highly popular. As per the data, around 10% of voters experienced burglary and theft in a 4 year period. Abrams fails in this field.

9. One of the interesting findings of the survey is Kemp leads Abrams by 67%-31% among white women and among white men Kemp enjoys the support of 73%.

Strengths of Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams

To conclude, Brian Kemp is winning the Governor’s Race In Georgia.

Why It is Difficult for Abrams to beat Kemp?

Unlike the 2018 Gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams is up against an Incumbent Republican Governor with a healthy approval rating built on performance and clever politics. Second, unlike the election in 2018, Stacey Abrams is running against the Biden headwinds of Inflation and Immigration.

Third, Brian Kemp has survived repeated assaults from Donald Trump and is in a much more confident position than he was in 2018. He conducted himself with dignity during the 2020 election and will not be seen as a rank partisan in the mold of say Ron DeSantis or even Greg Abbott.

All of these make the 2022 election an entirely new game for the Democrats in Georgia. It needs new thinking and new tactics and the Abrams campaign so far seems to be struggling to come up with ideas needed to break through against Kemp.

What are the factors helping Brian Kemp?

In the new poll, Brian Kemp is leading over Stacey Abrams by 10%. Here are the factors working in favor of Brian Kemp:

  • Brian Kemp has the massive support of registered Republican voters. As per the poll, Brian Kemp is favored by 87% of the registered Republican Voters while Stacey Abrams has the support of 81% of the registered Democrat voters.
  • Kemp is ahead of Stacey Abrams among the independents’. As per the new survey Kemp leads Abrams by 17 points among the independents.  Kemp leads by 49%-32%.
  • President Joe Biden enjoys one of the worst approval ratings in Georgia. 51% of the Georgia voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president. 47% are satisfied with Biden’s job.
  • 85% of the Georgians are concerned about the economic condition of the country. A major section of these voters favors Brian Kemp.
  •  67% believe abortion rights will be an important issue in the midterms.

Read Coverage of Walker vs Warnock Polls here

Georgia Governor Race Polls: Stacey Abrams Polls

Date(s)Kemp (R)Abrams (D)
Average of PollsNov 8th51%45%
Landmark CommunicationsNovember 7th52%46%
Insider AdvantageNovember 6th50%45%
Research CoNovember 6th51%44%

Stacey Abrams Polls Conclusion

Stacey Abrams has been trailing Brian Kemp and almost all the polls have predicted a win for Brain Kemp. The latest Stacey Abrams Polls have Brian Kemp leading by 6% over Stacey Abrams. If the trends follow, Brian Kemp is heading for re-election.

Georgia Governor Election 2022 Predictions: The Issues

  • Abortion rights and the overruling of Roe v. Wade have been thrust into the center of the Democratic campaigns, especially for Governor elections. Gov. Brian Kemp called the ruling “a historic victory for life”  while his Democratic Rival Stacey Abrams opposed Georgia’s abortion laws and called the decision “draconian”.
  • The Democrats are trying to appeal emotionally to the women voters by connecting with them on a personal level. Stacey Abrams at one such event sat with 6 women in a basement to hear their personal stories of miscarriage. She tried to take on the uncertainty caused by the change in laws to connect with women voters and influence them.
  • Another major issue influencing the Georgia Governor election is the Crime Rate. Brian Kemp is leading Stacey Abrams by 12 points on crime. He continued to tie Abrams to the issue of Defunding the police and recently questioned her choice to have private security.
  • Stacey Abrams is replying back to Kemp’s allegations of being anti-police, by calling out the Governor for being weak against Crime. In her recent campaign Ad titled ‘Truth’, she is quoted saying “Brian Kemp wants you to be afraid of me. Why? Because he thinks it will distract Georgians from the truth.”, further she pledges to support and finance Law enforcement officers if elected to the office.

Georgia Governor Polls 2022: Brian Kemp Approval Rating

Brian Kemp defeated the Trump-endorsed candidate David Perdue and he defeated David Perdue by a huge margin. In other words, Kemp crushed Perdue in the Primary election despite Trump backing Perdue. The vote difference between Kemp and Perdue was 74%-22%.

After the victory of Brian Kemp, the Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changed from Toss-Up to lean Republican for the November 8th Governor polls.

Talking about the Approval Rating of Brain Kemp, as per the latest Approval rating by Quinnipiac University a little over half i.e. 51% of Georgians approve of Kemp’s performance as a governor while around 44% disapprove of the same.

Georgia has grown faster than the national average by a tiny margin on personal income growth, and by a wide margin in homicide mortality (a surrogate for a crime). It has performed decently well in terms of national average Health Insurance costs.

Abrams Kemp Polls: Google Search Trends

Past 7 Days

Brian Kemp: 44% (Gained)
Stacey Abrams: 56% (Gained)

Abrams Kemp Polls: Net Social Media Sentiment

Kemp: -53.7% (Marginally Improved)
Abrams: -17.9% (Deteriorated)

Georgia Governor Polls 2022: Latest Videos

Georgia Governor Polls: 3 Reasons why Stacey Abrams is struggling against Kemp

It is early in the campaign but Stacey Abrams is struggling on issues that matter to voters of Georgia today.

Figures in brackets indicate the lead they have over the other candidate

The Georgian Partisan Lean: How Georgia became a swing state

Before the 2020 elections, Georgia was predominantly a red state and it had been over 20 years since democrats won any senate, governor, or presidential elections there. However, the state has emerged as a crucial political battleground for democrats. The democratic party has established a strong base for itself over the last 14 years.

The factors contributing to the partisan lean are:

  • The Atlanta metro area is one the fastest and most rapidly growing regions of the country and democrats are winning a majority of the new voters here. That widens the voter base as 2/3rd of the Georgians call Atlanta their home.
  • The black and Latino voter population are casting votes in higher percentages before 2020. This is an added advantage for the democrats especially in the midterms since Stacey Abrams is campaigning for the governor race.
  • Asian voters now make up a considerable proportion of the electorate and they have a favorable image of democrats.
  • The democrats have made considerable progress with white college-educated voters. In 2020 democrats lost 55% to 44% which improved from a loss of 69% to 28% in 2016 elections.

Stacey Abrams Polls: Primary Results

Georgia Governor Polls 2022: Frequently Asked Questions

  • Who is running for governor in 2022?

For the upcoming Georgia Governor Race, the Republican Party is represented by the incumbent Governor Brian Kemp while the Democratic Party is represented by Stacey Abrams.

  • How many terms can a Leader be Governor In Georgia?

In Georgia, a Governor serves for 4 years. After the end of 4 years, the incumbent can choose for re-election and if the Governor is able to win the re-election, the Governor serves for 4 more years. A Governor cannot serve for more than 8 years in Georgia.

  • Has Georgia ever had a female governor?

In the United States, a total of 19 states are yet to have a female Governor. Georgia is one of the 19 states yet to have a female governor.

  • Who was first black governor of Georgia?

The first black governor of Georgia was P. B. S. Pinchback. He was the 24th Governor of Georgia and was elected as the Governor in the year 1872.

Georgia Governor Polls 2022: What Happened In the Last Election?

In the last Georgia gubernatorial election held on November 6, 2018, the Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp was up against Democratic former State Representative Stacey Abrams.

The election result was quite close as Brian Kemp got 50.2% of the total votes while Stacey Abrams won 48.8% of the votes. After the election result, Brian Kemp went on to become the new Governor of Georgia replacing the Republican Nathan Deal.

Georgia Governor Polls: Demographics of Georgia Voters

The rapid diversification of Georgia has made it a battleground as many educated professionals populate the Atalanta metro area which has boomed in population this century.

The suburban counties (Gwinnett and Cobb) around Atalanta are now extremely diverse and have swung Democratic giving Biden nearly 20-point margins after voting for a Republican as President as late as 2012. These form a part of the “New South” and will likely decide this race.

Read all the latest US Polls here

Georgia Governor Polls: Will Lower inflation help Stacey Abrams beat Brian Kemp?

Subhash

Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.

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