Kari Lake 2022: It Is Advantage Lake but Will Doug Ducey’s and Salmon’s endorsement of Robson Hurt Her Chances?

July 12th, Kari Lake 2022: Read our Complete analysis about the chances of Kari Lake winning the upcoming GOP Primary Race

The Arizona Governor Primary race has become a fight between Kari Lake and Karrin Taylor Robson after Matt Salmon ended his campaign and in the latest tweet that resurfaced on Twitter, Governor Doug Ducey has put his weight behind Karrin Robson Making this fight even more Close.

The GOP Arizona Governor Primary Race is scheduled for August 2nd and the General election to elect the next Governor of Arizona is scheduled for November 8th. The Democratic Party’s field does not have much competition and Katie Hobbs is well-placed to win the upcoming Democratic Party’s Primary Race.

However, the competition lies in the GOP Primary Race with a battle being fought between Lake and Robson for the GOP nomination. Kari Lake has had an advantage since the very beginning as she was endorsed by former President Donald Trump but Karrin Taylor Robson has been able to pull out a surprise surge in the GOP Primary Race. Recently she got a huge boost after Matt Salmon, one of the three top candidates in the upcoming GOP Primary Race ended his campaign and endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson.

It must be remembered that Matt Salmon, despite not being the favorite to win the Primary Race, consistently polled around 10-15% vote share in all the opinion polls. Therefore, Karrin Taylor Robson may have the support of Salmon’s vote base after she got endorsed by him.

Kari Lake 2022: Insights and Observations

  • The Average of Polls Suggests Kari Lake can win GOP Primary.
  • Matt Salmon and Doug Ducey’s Endorsement to Karrin Robson can hamper Kari Lake’s Chances, Who lost some Vote base after May.
  • Trump’s Endorsement makes Kari Lake more of a front runner, her numbers increase Exponentially when Voted based on Trump’s Backing.
  • Undecided person can play a huge role in a closely fought out Contest.

Kari Lake 2022: Latest

After Matt Salmon ended his campaign, no polls have been released, therefore, the effect of Salmon’s endorsement of Robson may not be gauged efficiently as of now. The polls released before have had Kari Lake leading but Karrin Taylor Robson has been able to narrow the gap as the date for the Primary election nears.

Poll sourceDate(s)Kari
Average of PollsJuly 6th34%29%20%
More Information GroupsJune 23rd, 202237%38%14%
The Trafalgar Group (R)June 16, 202239%27%17%
Data Orbital (R)June 3, 202227%23%31%

**Note: Matt Salmon ended his campaign on June 28th.

Kari Lake 2022: Latest Campaign Video

Kari Lake 2022: Latest Campaign Tweets

Kari Lake: Latest News

  1. Arizona Independent voters may have an outsized impact on Republican Governor’s Primary
  2. How the end of Roe could be pivotal in the midterms
  3. Arizona GOP governor candidates debate ‘feels like a spoof’
  4. Robson picks up key Yuma County endorsements

Kari Lake 2022: Latest Google Trends For Last 7 days

Google Trends has turned out to be one of the most efficient tools for forecasting an election. The latest trends are highly in favor of Kari Lake whose ratings are continuously rising on google Search Volumes.

DateJuly 12th
Karrin Robson34%
DateJuly 8th
Karrin Robson25%
DateJuly 7th
Karrin Robson21%
DateJuly 6th
Karrin Robson19%
DateJuly 1st
Karrin Robson17%

Social Media sentiments:

Social Media Sentiments for Kari Lake are Neutral. Karrin Robson’s Sentiments remain Negative.

DateJuly 12th
Kari Lake-2.3%
Karrin Robson-8%
DateJuly 8th
Kari Lake0%
Karrin Robson-16.7%
DateJuly 7th
Kari Lake+3.3%
Karrin Robson-22.6%
DateJuly 6th
Kari Lake-6%
Karrin Robson-36%
DateJuly 1st
Kari Lake-22%
Karrin Robson-33.2%

Kari Lake: Verdict

There is no denying the fact that Kari Lake is very much popular in Arizona. The polls have placed her ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson consistently and taking the average of the latest 3 polls, Lake leads by 6 points. When we add other indicators like Google Trend and the net social media sentiment, it is clear, that Kari Lake is well-placed to win the upcoming GOP Primary Race.

Kari Lake: Voting age Demographics of Arizona

The voting age Demographics of Arizona are as follows-

Population- 5.1 Million

Racial EthnicityPercentage
Whites only61.1%
Hispanics or Latino24%
Blacks only4.7%
Asians only2.5%
Native and other Communities7.7%

Gender Wise Breakup of Arizona Voting age Population:

Gender based DivisionPercentage

Age-Wise Breakup of Arizona Voting age Population:

Voting age BreakupPercentage
18-29 years old21.8%
30-44 years old23.1%
45-64 years old30.6%
65+ years old24.5%

Read: Arizona Senate Polls 2022

Kari Lake Polls 2022


Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.

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