New Hampshire Senate Polls 2022: Don Bolduc gains momentum, could he beat Maggie Hassan?

New Hampshire Senate Polls: Don Bolduc: 46%, Maggie Hassan: 47%
Google Search Share: Don Bolduc: 68%, Maggie Hassan: 32%
Social Media Sentiment: Don Bolduc: -53.4%, Maggie Hassan: -30.7%

CrowdwisdomLive Prediction: Too Close to Call

The election to elect New Hampshire’s next Senator will be held on November 8, 2022. The seat is currently held by a Democrat, Maggie Hassan, who has announced that she is running for a second term. She has been elected in 3 state-wide elections, twice for governor and then once for Senate.

New Hampshire Senate Predictions 2022: Who is Gaining?

  • NH Senate Polls: Hassan
  • Google Search Share: Bolduc
  • Social Media Net Sentiment: Hassan

New Hampshire Senate Polls: Observations and Insights

  1. Who will win the New Hampshire Senate Election? Current forecasts suggest that the election is too close to call
  2. Why is Maggie Hassan in Trouble?
    • Maggie Hassan was in a comfortable position in September but new polls released in October followed the national trend as the gap between Republican and Democrat candidates has reduced substantially.
    • The primary reason for the shift is the rise in Gas prices (Inflation) once again in September.
    • Bolduc’s Poll momentum data is supported by data from Google Search and Social Media
  3. Will Don Bolduc win the election?
    • Don Bolduc will win if the overall environment deteriorates further against the Democrats.
    • Don Bolduc will lose if he is unable to improve his personal image which is 5-10 points worse than Maggie Hassan

NH Senate Polls: Maggie Hassan vs Don Bolduc

Average of the PollsNov 7th
Maggie Hassan47%
Don Bolduc46%
University of New HampshireNov 6th
Maggie Hassan45%
Don Bolduc45%
Insider AdvantageNov 5th
Maggie Hassan48%
Don Bolduc47%
WickNov 5th
Maggie Hassan48%
Don Bolduc45%

NH Senate Polls: Google Volume Share Trends

Last 7 days

  • Maggie Hassan: 32%
  • Don Bolduc: 68%

NH Senate Polls: Social Media Sentiments

Last 7 days

  • Maggie Hassan: -30.7%
  • Don Bolduc: -53.4%

New Hampshire Senate Race: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

The last three Senate elections in New Hampshire were held in the years 2016, 2010, and 2004 and in all three elections, there has been a new candidate who won the Senate election. In the last 3 New Hampshire Senate elections, the Republicans have won twice and the Democrats have won once. The latest one was won by Democrat Maggie Hassan. Here are the details about the last 3 senate elections in New Hampshire:

2016 New Hampshire Senate Race: 2016 was the first time when Maggie Hassan was running for the New Hampshire Senate Race. She was up against the incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte who was running for re-election to the second term in the office.

Kelly Ayotte secured a magnificent win in the Primary election. She secured over 70% votes while Maggie Hassan was nominated unopposed by the Democratic Party.

Most of the polls for the New Hampshire Senate election in 2016 predicted a win for Maggie Hassan. Of the last last 5 polls, Maggie Hassan was ahead of Kelly Ayotte in four polls. The polls did predict a close fight between the two candidates.

The election result was in accordance with the polls. Maggie Hassan won the election but the polls failed to gauge the closeness of the fight. Maggie Hassan won the election securing 47.98% vote share while Kelly Ayotte secured 47.84% vote share which was just 0.14% less than Maggie Hassan’s vote share.

2010 New Hampshire Senate Race: The 2010 New Hampshire Senate election was held on November 2nd, 2010. The Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Judd Gregg decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term which lead to a vacancy for the election of a new Senator from New Hampshire.

The Republican Primary election was very closely fought. Kelly Ayotte and Ovide Lamontagne had a very close finish. Kelly Ayotte got a 38.21% vote share while Ovide Lamontagne polled 37.01% of the total votes. Paul Hodes was appointed as a candidate from the Democratic field.

The polls for the General election predicted a win for the GOP candidate Kelly Ayotte but most of the polls showed a very close fight between the GOP and Democratic Party candidates. However, the result was completely different from what was predicted by the polls. Kelly Ayotte did win the election but her win was massive not a close one as predicted by the polls.

Kelly Ayotte polled 60.1% of the total votes while Paul Hodges got only 36.8% of the total votes. Kelly Ayotte went on to become the Senator of New Hampshire for the first time.

2004 New Hampshire Senate Race: Democratic Party did not have a good election year in 2010 in New Hampshire. The protagonist for the election predicted the election to be one-sided in favor of the Republicans.

In 2004, the incumbent Senator Judd Gregg was running for his re-election to a third term. As an incumbent, he did not have any challenge in the Primary election and was nominated unopposed. Doris Haddock was the candidate from the Democratic Party.

The result of the election was as per the expected lines. Judd Gregg won the election magnificently as he polled over 65% of the total votes. Doris Haddock on the other hand got 33.7% of the total votes.

New Hampshire Senate Polls: Frequently Asked Questions

How long has New Hampshire been a Republican State?

  • In New Hampshire voters elected Republicans for national office until 1992. New Hampshire became a swing state. From 2006 control of the state legislature and congressional seats have switched back to Republican and Democrat.

How many legislatures are in New Hampshire?

  • The New Hampshire legislative branch is known as the general court. It consists of two chambers the house of representatives and the senate. There are around 400 representatives and 24 senators and making the general court the second-largest legislature in the US Congress.

New Hampshire Senate Race: Racial Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures, the voting age demographics of the state are as follows:

  • White: 89%
  • Hispanic: 4%
  • Others: 7%

New Hampshire is one of the whitest states in the country and had one of the larger swings in 2020 compared to 2016. In 2016, it was the closest state in the country by raw vote total as Clinton won by 0.3%.

However, Biden did 7 points better powered by impressive margins with White college-educated voters in the southeast of the state, which is considered part of the Boston Metro Area. The demographics of the state do favor Democrats, as it is irreligious, heavily urbanized and one of the most college-educated states in the country.

However, it remains politically quirky as its voter tend to split their tickets a lot. While Biden won the state in 2020, Republicans won full control of the state legislature, wresting it from Democratic control after they won it during their 2018 wave, powered by Governor Sununu’s popularity. Democrats will be hoping to avoid a surprising result like this again.

New Hampshire Senate Polls: Last Elections

In the last election that was held in 2016, Maggie Hassan contested against Republican Ayotte Kelly who was an incumbent running for the second term. Ayotte lost the election by very few votes.

In the Senate election, the contest between Ayotte and Maggie was very close. Maggie’s vote share was 47.98% and she won by 354,649 votes.

Read: New Hampshire Governor Race 2022 Polls

 

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