PA Governor Polls 2022: Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Race

November 9, 2022

Election Day Update

Counting

Josh Shapiro: 57.0%
Doug Mastriano: 41.2%

45% Of the Votes Counted.

PA Governor Polls (Average): Josh Shapiro 52%, Doug Mastriano 43%.
Google Search Share: Josh Shapiro 50%, Doug Mastriano 50%.
Social Media Net Sentiment: Josh Shapiro -24%, Doug Mastriano -27.4%.
CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Shapiro to win by a 5-10% margin

When is the Pennsylvania Governor Race?

The 2022 Governor Election in Pennsylvania is set to take place on November 8^th, 2022. The contest is between Josh Shapiro, Attorney General of Pennsylvania, and Trump-endorsed state senator Doug Mastriano.

PA Governor Race 2022 Predictions: Who is Gaining?

Polls: Shapiro
Google Search: Steady
Social Media Sentiment: Steady

PA Governor Polls: Who Will Win Pennsylvania Governor Race?

Josh Shapiro has now taken a decisive lead and should comfortably win the race

Pennsylvania Governor Polls: Observation and Insights

Why is Shapiro gaining?
- Shapiro appears to have gained over the last 10 days according to the latest Insider Advantage Poll
- Josh Shapiro has increased his lead from 6 points to 8. This is counter to the Republican Gains in key races across the country
- The gains have risen primarily among women. He led by 14 points among women 10 days ago, he now leads by 24 points
- Shapiro had lost momentum among older voters two weeks ago. He was leading Mastriano by 17 among those older than 65, he now leads by 28 points
- Shapiro continues to poll well among Republicans, he was winning nearly 12% of the vote 10 days ago, and he is now winning 17%
- Hypothesis: Shapiro’s constant barrage of messaging that Mastriano is an extremist appears to be working women and older voters
Can Mastriano win?
- While it is unusual for a candidate to recover from such a huge gap, it is not all over for Mastriano
- Mastriano leads by 25 points among Independent voters, which is a great to place to be in the moment
- He needs to figure out a way to bring Moderate Republican women back to his side over the next week. For example, if he polls 90% among Republicans (he is at 74% now), the election could end in a Tie
In Pennsylvania, the registered Democrat voters are over 4M while the Republicans are around 3.5M.

PA Governor Polls 2022: Mastriano vs Shapiro Polls

Average of Polls	November 8th
*Josh Shapiro (D)*	*52%*
*Doug Mastriano (R)*	*43%*
Research Co	November 6th
*Josh Shapiro (D)*	53%
*Doug Mastriano (R)*	41%
Targoz Market research	November 6th
*Josh Shapiro (D)*	*52%*
*Doug Mastriano (R)*	*46%*
Insider Advantage	November 6th
*Josh Shapiro (D)*	*51%*
*Doug Mastriano (R)*	*43%*

Average of last 3 Elections

Democrat (52.7%)
Republican (46.8%)

The Big Question is, has Roe vs Wade fundamentally changed the tone of this election?

Post SCOTUS Decision, Gain for Shapiro (D): +3.3%
Post SCOTUS Decision, loss for Mastriano (R): (-5.0%)

PA Governor Polls 2022: Google Search Volume Share

Last 7 Days

Josh Shapiro: 50%
Doug Mastriano: 50%

PA Governor Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiment

Last 7 Days

Shapiro: -24%
Mastriano: –27.4%

PA Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest News

PA Governor Race Polls: Fundraising Details

Josh Shapiro

The Democratic Candidate for the upcoming Pennsylvania Governor Race, Josh Shapiro has been able to raise $20,528,555 in funds to finance his PA Governor Race campaign. His total expenditure as of now is $7,749,175. For more details about Josh Shapiro’s donation data.

Doug Mastriano

Doug Mastriano’s fundraising has not been as good as Josh Shapiro’s. As of now, Doug Mastriano has been able to raise $1,704,530 to finance his 2022 Pennsylvania Governor Race campaign. Talking about his expenditure, he has already spent $1,589,403 on his campaign.

However, apart from donations, candidates also use external funds for their campaign expenditures. Doug Mastriano’s expenditure in 2022 has been more than the funds he has collected.

PA Governor Polls: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

In the last five Governor election in Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party have been able to win the election 4 times and the Republican has won the election only once in Pennsylvania. In 2010, a Republican Tom Corbett became the Governor of Pennsylvania for the last time and since then a Democrat has been occupying the Office of the Governor of Pennsylvania.

The last 3 Governor elections in Pennsylvania were held in the year 2010, 2014, and 2018. Here are the details about the last 3 Governor elections in Pennsylvania:

PA Governor Polls: 2018 PA Governor Race: On November 6th, 2018, an election to elect the Governor of Pennsylvania was held. From the Democratic field was Tom Wolf seeking his re-election to a second term for Pennsylvania Governor. He was up against the GOP candidate, Scott Wagner.

The polls for the election predicted a complete one-sided result. Almost all the polls gave Tom Wolf over 10% lead over Scott Wagner. The result was as per the expectation. Tom Wolf won the election and he polled 57.8% vote share. Scott Wagner got 40.7% of the total votes.

PA Governor Polls: 2014 PA Governor Race

In 2014, Tom Wolf was running for the first time for the office of Governor of Pennsylvania. He was up against the incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett. The election was held on November 4th, 2014.

The polls for the election did not favor the incumbent. Almost all the polls gave Tom Wolf over 10% lead over the incumbent Governor Scott Wagner. The result was similar to the poll prediction. Tom Wolf polled 54.9% of the total votes and won the election by nearly 10%. Scott Wagner received 45.1% of the total votes.

2010 Pennsylvania Governor Race: After 2 consecutive terms of Democratic Governor, in 2010 the Republican party was finally able to win the state. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ed Rendell was term-limited and thus ineligible to seek re-election in 2010.

The Republican nominee Tom Corbett was up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Dan Onorato. The election was held on November 2, 2010.

The polls favored a win for the Republican candidate Tom Corbett with almost all the polls giving Tom Corbett over 50% vote share and a lead of a minimum of 10% over his Democratic Rival Dan Onorato. The result was similar to the polls. Tom Corbett polled 54.5% of the total votes. Dan Onorato on the other hand polled 45.5% of the total votes. Corbett won the election by 9% and went on to become the Governor of Pennsylvania.

PA Primary Results

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on May 17, 2022. Democratic Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Republican State Senator Doug Mastriano won their parties’ respective nominations.

PA Governor Race Polls: Democratic Primary Results

The Democratic Party’s primary election was uncontested. Josh Shapiro was declared the winner as he had no challenger.

PA Governor Race: GOP Primary Results

In the Republican field, the polls have shown Doug Mastriano leading since the very beginning. Doug Mastriano was endorsed by Donald Trump and his endorsement helped Doug Mastriano have an edge over his fellow Republican Party candidates.

The election result was almost one-sided. Doug Mastriano won the election as he polled over 20% vote share than his nearest rival, Lou Barletta.

Doug Mastriano : 43.8%
Lou Barletta: 20.2%
McSwain: 15.8%

Pennsylvania Governor Race Polls 2022: Racial Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures, the population of the state is as follows:
White votes remain a large majority and it’s the same case in both parties’ primaries. Black voters remain a crucial voting bloc for Dems and they need to ensure Philadelphia turns out to be high. The 4 suburban “collar” counties around the city are also huge vote banks for Dems as they trend away from Trump’s GOP.

Montgomery and Delaware County are especially important. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and its metro area have been a bright spot for Democrats while they lose votes in white working-class areas in North-East Pennsylvania (NEPA) like Biden’s hometown of Scranton. South Central PA is an extremely vote-rich area and the counties of Cumbria, Northumberland, and Lebanon will be battlegrounds again. That area along with the rural counties remains a vote source for the GOP.

White American: 73.5%
Black American: 10.5%
Hispanic: 8.1%
Asian: 3.9%
Multi-racial: 3.5%

Read: Pennsylvania Senate Race 2022 Polls