PA Senate Race 2022: Democrats Primary Polls

February 14, 2022

PA Senate Race 2022: Democrats Primary Polls: John Fetterman ahead in latest polls. Even the Google Trends Data favors Fetterman against Conor Lamb

Pennsylvania is a state long considered to be part of the “blue wall”, a phenomenon of northeastern & Midwestern states which heavily voted democratic since the Clinton administration. However, in 2016 Donald Trump broke the blue wall on his way to victory with Pennsylvania as one of his pickups.

Although, the state has trended back towards democrats since the start of the Trump administration with Governor Tom Wolf holding his seat through an 11% victory and Senator Bob Casey doing the same by a 12% margin of victory. Now that Senator Pat Toomey (R) is retiring, Democrats have a significant chance at a crucial pickup for a Senate seat in a year that they are expected to suffer significant legislative losses.

PA Senate Race 2022: Democrats Primary Polls: Who are the Candidates?

The Democratic party itself is not a monolith, with significant fragmentation since Clinton’s administration. There is a socialist wing or socialist friendly wind, a neoliberal wing, and some slight overlap between the two.

Although, in parts of America socialism is not a politically acceptable label and thus parts of the socialist wing will label itself as a worker’s rights or progressive portion of the party rather than openly claiming to be part of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). These fragments are significantly represented within the primary to be the Democratic nominee, as each has begun to mostly support one of two candidates: Lt. Governor John Fetterman playing the progressive candidate and Representative Conor Lamb playing the neoliberal candidate.

Both candidates have unique stories and some history running in Pennsylvania, with Lt. Governor Fetterman serving as a mayor for 15 years in a small Pennsylvania town and Representative Conor Lamb winning a high profile flip in a special election in Spring of 2018.

PA Senate Race 2022: Democrats Primary Polls: Latest Tweets

Capacity crowd out in force in McKean County.

I can’t even begin to thank these deep 🔴 county voters for showing up. This is the energy we need to win in November. pic.twitter.com/j4ItLtvjhn
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) February 12, 2022

Another great show of support this weekend from Lancaster County Dems (@lancdems), who are working hard to win in a county that was Trump +16 in 2020.

Thank you for your time & all your questions.

We're going everywhere, listening to everyone, working hard for every vote #PASen pic.twitter.com/LBRQdS2CZs
— Conor Lamb (@ConorLambPA) February 13, 2022

PA Senate Race 2022: Democrats Primary Polls: Latest Polls

Poll Sources	Dates	John Fetterman	Malcolm Kenyatta	Conor Lamb	Undecided
Data For Progress	Jan 26-31	46%	12%	16%	22%
GQR Research	Dec 14 -16	44%	20%	15%	12%
Average	Dec-Jan 2022	45%	16%	15%	17%

Early polling released by the John Fetterman campaign in January showed him leading over Conor Lamb 46% to 16% respectively, even though it appears that Representative Lamb will win the state democratic party’s endorsement. This confirms polling from earlier in 2021 showing Lt. Governor Fetterman with a significant polling advantage – although skepticism is usually deserved for internal polls, given that they often will omit negative results and are hard to draw trends from.

Figure 1: John Fetterman Polling Results from Internal Polling (Dec ‘21 – Jan ‘22)

Although, Lt. Governor Fetterman also has a significant money advantage over Representative Lamb – showing greater national enthusiasm for his campaign and greater momentum. Fetterman’s campaign has raised $2.8 million last quarter and approximately $12 million so far, whereas Rep. Lamb has only raised $4 million total.

Fetterman also has $5.8 million cash on hand over Lamb’s $3 million and will likely use less of that money on winning the party nomination, so this may provide a significant advertising advantage that will only intensify as May approaches.

Figure 2: Available Campaign Finance Information as of Jan ‘22

PA Senate Race 2022: Democrats Primary Polls: Google Trends for Each Candidate

Google Trends also shows that Fetterman has a significant interest advantage over the previous month, giving him greater attention to drive an electoral narrative. One item of note is that Conor Lamb does hold a significant interest advantage in Western Pennsylvania, where his house district represents.

This could be a stronghold for him heading into the primary and heavy endorsements from that region could potentially change the direction of the race. However, at this time it appears highly likely that John Fetterman will be the Democratic nominee unless trends within the party change.