Stacey Abrams Polls and Analysis: 3 Reasons why Stacey Abrams is struggling against Governor Kemp

Stacey Abrams Polls: Stacey Abrams is trailing Brian Kemp by a minimum of 6 points as per the latest polls. Here are the 3 reasons why she is trailing Kemp.

[This article focuses only on Stacey Abrams’s chances of beating Brian Kemp. To read a complete view of the Georgia Governor race, read this one]

Stacey Abrams Polls: Latest Polling Average

Average of PollsJune 21st, 2022
Brian Kemp50%
Stacey Abrams44%

Stacey Abrams Polls: 3 Reasons why Stacey Abrams is struggling against Kemp

It is early in the campaign but Stacey Abrams is struggling on issues that matter to voters of Georgia today.

Brian Kemp’s StrengthsStacey Abrams’s Strengths
Immigration (+87%)Healthcare (+25%)
Economy (+34%)Racial Issues (+70%)
Crime (+12%)
Figures in brackets indicate the lead they have over the other candidate
  • Abrams is trailing Governor Kemp by 12 on Crime. Her approach to Crime has been to talk about Gun Control as it emotionally connects well with voters given the recent series of shootings
    • However, this approach is not connected with the facts on the ground.
      • In the year 2020, 73% of the reported cases of Crime in Georgia were related to Burglary and Theft while serious cases of assault, rape, and murder made up for 16% of the cases. So, as far as lived experiences go, 122,000 voters in Georgia experienced crimes like burglary and theft while serious cases were experienced by 27,000 voters.
      • In a non-COVID year like 2019, Thefts and Burglaries made up 164,000 cases. One can assume that about half a million voters experienced burglary and theft in a 4 year period. That is about 10% of the voters.
    • This is why the Republican stand on aggressive policing is quite popular as it is designed to find the criminals before they come to steal at your home. Stacey Abrams cannot support aggressive policing as it could conflict with African American voters who make up 32% of the voters and many would believe that they are unfairly targeted by the Police. The Campaign has so far failed to come up with an alternate idea that would connect well with both black and white voters.

It is the Governors of the South who will say who we are gonna be next

Stacey Abrams Speech (Below Video)
  • The Economy is a particularly important issue because Joe Biden is blamed for the rising cost of living. While inflation is expected to ease and voters in Georgia already pay the lowest rates for Gas in the country, there are numerous voters who are lagging behind
    • On the economy, Stacey Abrams’s campaign targeted Teachers for lower minimum pay though teachers and their families make up for less than 5% of all voters. However, she has been reluctant to talk about minimum wage.
    • Florida under Ron DeSantis has gone ahead and is implementing a $15 minimum wage over the next 4 years. Both the states have economies that look a little like each other. 1 Million employees in Georgia make less than that $15 level, a huge vote opportunity for Stacey Abrams.
    • While she supports Governor Kemp’s tax cuts, that only helps Governor Kemp and not her. Irrespective of whether a minimum wage is a good or bad idea, Stacey Abrams lacks ideas that could be popular with a lot of voters which can then actually translate to a large swing in her favor.
  • As a consequence, apart from Healthcare which is a strong Democratic Party platform, Stacey Abrams is underperforming on functional issues (Practical) trailing Kemp on 3 out of 4 major issues. This in turn is causing her to trail amongst segments that are more focussed on functional issues like the economy – Men, Independents, and older voters. In fact, she is underperforming amongst these voters compared to 2018 as well
    • Abrams is struggling amongst older voters compared to Biden. One could say that higher inflation is hurting these voters the most.
    • Biden hammered Trump amongst Independents winning by 9% points, and Abrams on the other hand is trailing by 3%, a swing of 12%.
    • Biden also won amongst women by a much larger margin than Stacey Abrams’s current lead
    • Focussing too much on racial issues and voter suppression will mobilize black voters better but won’t win the election.
Brian Kemp’s StrengthsStacey Abrams’s Strengths
White Voters (+47%)Black Voters (+72%)
Affluent Voters (+20%)Voters below the age of 50 years (7%)
Voters older than 50 years (+15%)Lower Income groups (+11%)
Men (8%)

Stacey Abrams Policy Page

Stacey Abrams Polls: Conclusions

Unlike the 2018 Gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams is up against an Incumbent Republican Governor with a healthy approval rating built on performance and clever politics. Second, unlike the election in 2018, Stacey Abrams is running against the Biden headwinds of Inflation and Immigration. Third, Brian Kemp has survived repeated assaults from Donald Trump and is in a much more confident position than he was in 2018. He conducted himself with dignity during the 2020 election and will not be seen as a rank partisan in the mold of say Ron DeSantis or even Greg Abbott.

All of these make the 2022 election an entirely new game for the Democrats in Georgia. It needs new thinking and new tactics and the Abrams campaign so far seems to be struggling to come up with ideas needed to breakthrough against Kemp.

Stacey Abrams Polls on Twitter

Stacey Abrams Polls

Leave a Reply