Texas Polls 2022: Greg Abbott Ahead in Texas GOP Primary Race, Don Huffines Gains in Google Trends

Governor Greg Abbott has likely the most difficult election season ahead of him since the beginning of his incumbency. Since the election in 2014, he enjoyed comfortable favorability margins across the state and held control over the republican party in the state.

However, cracks began to form in 2020 with the well-known arrest of a Dallas salon operator sanctioned by his executive orders to prevent coronavirus. Since then, a segment of the republican party has checked his right flank and forced his hand on a number of divisive issues driving his favorability ratings into negative territory for the first time in his career.

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Last 24 hours Google Trend Search

In the last 24 hours, Gregg Abbott has been ahead of the other two major candidates in Texas GOP Primary, Allen West and Don Huffines.

However, in the last few hours, the interest level of Don Huffines has increased massively. However, the interest level for Greg Abbot has been higher.

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Texas Polls 2022: Latest Texas GOP Primary Polls

The GOP Primary is set to take place on March 1st. Eight candidates are running in the Republican Primary election for the Texas Governor. Three candidates Greg Abbott, Don Huffines, and Allen West are considered to be the major candidates with Greg Abbott being the incumbent Governor.

Some Facts About Texas Election

1. Since 1978 no incumbent governor has lost primary election.
2. Republican have held the Governor’s post in Texas since 1994.
3. The last Governor from Texas from Democrats was Ann Richards.
4. The incumbent Governor, Gregg Abbott was elected as governor of Texas for the first time in 2014.
5. Prior to joining politics, Abbott was a justice on the Texas Supreme Court from 1996 to 2001.
6. Greg Abbott has received endorsement of former President Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz.
7. The challenger Don Huffines was a member of the Texas Senate representing the Dallas-area District 16 from 2015 to 2019.
8. Allen West represented Florida’s 22nd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013.

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Texas Polls 2022: Background

Figure 1: Greg Abbott Favorability 2014-2022. Source: Texas Politics Project @UT Austin

Although Governor Abbott has generally played into the right flank during the 2021 Legislative session, there is still a wing of the party hungry for more red-meat best exemplified when he was heckled at a Trump rally in Conroe, Texas this January. Allen West, a former Congressman from Florida, has been a thorn in Abbott’s side since becoming the state party chairman in 2020 – setting hard-line policies on the party’s platform and on Twitter.

His rise to fame in the state has been driven by incredibly conservative rhetoric on cultural issues combined with a laissez-faire attitude towards the coronavirus. Don Huffines, a former State Senator from Dallas, has played into the primary mostly by driving extreme rhetoric on billboards and television advertisements endorsing the elimination of all property taxes, mass deportation, and to ‘stop giving illegals our money’.

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One issue Abbott may face is that people who are most encouraged to vote in a primary can often be the most fanatical, so he may find the margins closer than he would prefer.

Regardless, there are many trends that suggest that Abbot will likely win re-nomination.

Texas Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Election?

a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?

The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden’s approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal of Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.

President Biden and Democrats have failed on most of the front which has impacted the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.

b. Republicans have an Upper hand

The latest Texas polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most of the polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.

Texas Polls 2022: Google Trends for Last 7 days

Texas GOP Primary Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments (Last 7 Days)

Abbott also has a significant war-chest advantage over the other two candidates, which will only grow to be more influential as the primary season slogs onwards. As of the January semiannual reports, Abbott has raised $19 million, spent $10 million, and has $65 million cash on hand.

Whereas Huffines has raised $2 million, spend $6 million, and has $4 million cash on hand – with a $5 million loan. And Allen West has even less, raising $2 million, spending $1.2 million, and has only $166,000 cash on hand.

All things considered, Abbott should win if enough voters attend the primaries. What might be the most interesting factor is how candidates will handle their defeat given that 39% of Republican voters do not believe the primary will be conducted in a fairway. Given the events of 2021 onwards, there may be some heated discussion about election integrity headed into November – where the republican candidate is heavily favored to win.

Latest News from The Texas Election

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Texas Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Videos

Texas GOP Primary Polls 2022: Latest Tweets