Utah Senate Polls 2022 and Prediction
The 2022 Utah Senate Race is turning out to be one of the most closely fought senate races of 2022. The incumbent Mike Lee has been in the office for the past 2 terms, he was first elected in 2010. He is fighting against the independent Senate candidate, Evan McMullin. The Democratic Party has officially backed the independent Evan McMullin for the upcoming Utah Senate Race.
Utah has been completely dominated by the Republicans and it has been a couple of decades since the last time a Democrat became a senator from Utah. This time fight in Utah is between a Republican and a Democratic Party-backed independent candidate. The General election for Utah Senate Race is scheduled for November 8th, 2022.
Utah Senate Polls: Some Facts
Utah has rarely elected a Democrat or any other Senator apart from a Republican in the last few decades. The last time a Democrat became a Class 3 Senator from Utah was back in 1938. He lost his reelection in 1944. In the last 4 elections, a GOP candidate winning the senate race has not polled less than 60% of the total votes.
In the 2020 Presidential election, Donald Trump won the state by 20.5%. He polled 58.2% of the total votes while Joe Biden got 37.7% of the total votes. Comparing the 2020 victory of Trump in Utah with the last 3 elections, the 2020 victory margin was the lowest and in 2016 Trump won with 25% in Utah.
Utah Senate Polls: What Could be the Possible Outcome?
The Utah Senate election is headed for a wire finish. The Utah Senate Predictions favor a win for the incumbent Mike Lee
2022 Utah Senat Polls (Average of last 3 Polls): Mike Lee: 49.3% Evan McMullin: 40.6%
Latest Utah Senate Polls: Mike Lee: 47% Evan McMullin: 46%
Utah Senate Predictions: Likely Republican
Utah Election Polls: Google Search Share (7 Days Average): Mike Lee: 33% Evan McMullin: 67%
Social Media Sentiment (7 Days Average): Mike Lee: -49% Evan McMullin: -12.7%
Utah Senate Polls Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Despite the recent surge of Evan McMullin, we predict a win for the incumbent Mike Lee. However, the margin of victory will be narrowed.
Utah Senate Polls: What Changed in this terms Utah Senate Race?
The 2022 Utah Senate Race is completely different for the voters of Utah. From the usual Republican vs Democratic Party fight, this time the fight is between a Republican and an Independent candidate.
The incumbent Senator, Mike Lee is running for the 3rd time. In the primary election, he did not have a big challenge. In the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022, Mike Lee garnered 70% of the total votes and in the Primary election which was held on June 28, 2022, he was up against Becky Edwards and Ally Isom.
Mike Lee won the primary election by securing 61.9% of the total votes.
In the Democratic Party Primary election, Kael Weston was the only Democrat running. However, instead of betting on a Democrat for the Senate race, the party endorsed Evan McMullin the independent candidate against the incumbent Mike Lee. Evan had the endorsement of over 55% of the Democrat leaders.
Utah Senate Prediction Table
|||Who is Leading?||Trending Towards|
|Polls||Mike Lee||Mike Lee|
|Social Media Sentiment||Mike Lee||Mike Lee|
|Google Search||Evan McMullin||Mike Lee|
Utah Republican Mike Lee Leads Never Trumper Evan McMullin By 10 Points A Week Before Election
Utah Senate Polls: Latest Evan McMullin Polls
|Date||Mike Lee (R)||Evan McMullin (I)|
|Average of Polls||Nov 2nd||49.3%||40.6%|
|Hill Research Consultants||Oct 30th||47%||46%|
|Emerson College||Oct 28th||50%||40%|
|OH Predictive Insights||Oct 27th||51%||36%|
Utah Senate Prediction
The polls for the Utah election have predicted a very close election. However, the Utah Senate Predictions predict a win for the Republican Mike Lee.
Utah Senate Polls: Candidates’ Priorities
1 The very first priority of Mike Lee is National Security. He believes that protecting the citizens from foreign threat is the fundamental function of the government.
2. The second priority of Mike Lee is to make sure that the US Government transfers the land back to Utah state as per the agreement called the Utah Enabling Act.
3 Mike Lee promises to help the local business and provide adequate jobs to its citizens.
4 Senator Lee pursues policies that strengthen family ties and undo government interventions that penalize or weaken the family.
5 Affordable and high-quality healthcare is one of his important priorities of Mike Lee.
6 Mike Lee advocates for the cost of post-secondary education to decrease and ensure greater transparency, accountability, and competition.
7 Protecting the Second Amendment is also one of its priorities of Senator Lee.
1 The first priority of Evan McMullin is to ensure strengthens democracy and stands up against the extremists.
2 Lowering the cost of health care is one of his important priorities.
3 Reducing reckless Government expenditure and working for lowering inflation are also included in McMullin’s priority list.
4 Protecting the air and water
5 Modernizing and reforming the military in order to keep America safe is also one of the priorities of Evan McMullin.
Utah Senate Race Polls: Last Senate Race Results
In the last senate election, the incumbent Mike Lee won with a bigger margin of votes than his first election victory in 2010. He almost equaled the vote share of 2004 Bob Bennett’s victory.
Utah Senate Polls: Latest Videos
Utah Senate Polls: Google Search Volume
The change in the Google Search volume number from the last 30 days to the last 7 days, shows the increasing popularity of Evan McMullin. Mike Lee is way ahead of McMullin when it comes to the last 30 days’ data of the Google search volume but in the last 7 days, Evan McMullin has gained huge and has more than doubled the search volume in the last 7 days.
Utah Senate Prediction: Social Media Sentiment
|Mike Lee (R)||Evan McMullin (I)|
|Last 7 days Net Sentiment||-49%||-12.7%|
The net social media sentiment for Evan McMullin is highly positive. Despite having such a huge search volume in the last 7 days, his net sentiment has been positive. In comparison the net sentiment for Mike Lee is negative.
Utah Senate Polls: Who will Win Utah Senate Race 2022?
The 2022 Utah Senate race is heading for a wire finish. The Republican Party, which has been at the helm of power in decades, is facing the heat for the first time in decades. The independent candidate Evan McMullin has upped the heat and after the support of the Democratic Party, he has lowered the gap as per the polls.
However, considering the past as well as the dominance of the Republican Party in Utah, the incumbent Mike Lee may be able to pull through.
Utah Senate Prediction: Population and Demographics
As per the data, the population of Utah in 2022 is around 3.37M which is around a 0.12 M increase since 2020. In the last census which was carried out in 2010, the population of Utah was reported to be 2,763,885. In the last 12 years, there is an increase of 20% in the population of Utah.
Most of Utah’s population (more than 2 million) lives in the towns and cities. The largest metropolitan area in Utah is the Salt Lake City metropolitan area. The population of this area is around 1.3 M (data from 2016).
The majority of the population are Christians, which is around 73% and non-Christians are only 4% of the population. The rest of the remaining have not associated themselves with any religion.
The Demographic Composition of the population of Utah is:
Other race: 5.10%
Two or more races: 4.24%
Black or African American: 1.21%
Native American: 1.05%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.93%