Virginia Governor Race Polls and Results: Glenn Youngkin likely to win narrowly at the end
Crowdwisdom360 Analysis, Nov 2nd: Youngkin makes huge Strides in the Suburbs and with Independents, poised to win the election
In August, McAuliffe was ahead by 5.2% points, He now Trails by 1.0%. Youngkin appears to have made huge gains amongst suburban Independent voters. The 3 most recent polls show Youngkin with a much larger gap. On Google search, the gap between Youngkin and McAuliffe has increased over the last one week.
On Google, the gap between Youngkin and McAuliffe had been falling over the last couple of months (see below). However, this changed over the last week when the gap has once again increased in favor of Glenn Youngkin
Google Search: Where has Glenn Youngkin gained on Google search in comparison with Trump?
Harrisonburg: +16% (HARRISONBURG CITY– 2020 results, Biden: 65%, Trump:33%, 2016 results, Clinton: 57%, Trump: 35%)
Roanoke-Lynchburg: +9% (ROANOKE CITY, 2020 results, Biden: 62%, Trump:36%, 2016 results, Clinton: 33%, Trump: 61%)
Richmond-Petersburg: +5% (RICHMOND CITY, 2020 results, Biden: 83%, Trump:15%, 2016 results, Clinton: 79%, Trump: 15%)
Virginia Governor Race 2021 Date: Today
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 and News: Virginia Governor Race Predictions
|Method||Predicted Winner||Likely Margin|
|Polls||Too Close to Call (Youngkin ahead)||Low|
|Google Search||Too Close to Call (Youngkin ahead)||Low|
|Betting/ Prediction Platforms||Too Close to Call (Youngkin ahead)||Low|
|Crowd’s Prediction||Too Close to Call||Low|
|Early Voting Trends||Too Close to Call (McAuliffe Ahead)||Low|
Poll Hours: Polling hours are from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. As long as you are in line by 7:00 p.m., you will be able to vote.
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls, Nov 2nd
Polls show Glenn Youngkin with a small advantage over Terry McAuliffe.
|Polling Company||Dates of polling||Terry McAuliffe(D)||Glenn Youngkin||2017 prediction|
|Average of Pollsters||Oct 26th-Nov 1st||47.0%||48.0%||Final Result, Northam +8.9|
|Research Co||Oct 31st -Nov 1st||47%||48%||Not Polled|
|Targoz Market Research||Oct 26th- Nov 1st||50%||47%||Not Polled|
|Trafalgar||Oct 29th-31st||47%||49%||Northam +1|
|InsiderAdvantage Poll||Oct 27th-30th||45%||47%||Not Polled|
|Echelon heights||Oct 27th-29th||46%||49%||Not Polled|
Polls have had a mixed record in Virginia.
- In 2013, Polls over-estimated McAuliffe support by 3.5% [Dems Bias]
- In 2016, Clinton vs Trump Polls were precise in predicting the result
- In 2017, Polls under-estimated support for Ralph Northam by 4.6% points [GOP Bias]
- In 2020, most polls over-estimated Biden support by 1.5% points [Dems Bias]
- Average Bias in the last 4 elections is Dems Bias +0.5 but it could range from 4.6% against Dems to 3.5% in favor of Dems
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 and News: Google Search Update, Nov 2nd
Google search data indicates Youngkin is outperforming Donald Trump in Virginia. Search data indicates swings in cities where Independent voters shifted from 3rd party candidates in the 2016 US Presidential election to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. They are now shifting to Glenn Youngkin.
7 days leading to the 2020 US Presidential election: Trump: 65%,Biden: 35%
McAuliffe pulls back on Trump focussed campaign. Read our analysis on why that was a bad idea in the first place
Virginia governor election early voting Statistics, Nov 2nd
Latest Virginia Governor Election Early Voting Update, 1,161,768 had already voted as on Nov 1st, 2.8 million had voted by election data in the Nov 2020 US Presidential election
According to Targetearly Modelling, 53.0% of those who already voted are Democrats, this was 47.3% in 2020
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 and News: What are the Prediction and Betting Odds? Nov 2nd
On Smarkets, the chances of a Republican victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is at 56%
On Polymarket, the chances of a Republican Victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is 52%
On Predictit, the chances of a Republican Victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is 58%
Crowd’s Virginia Governor Race Predictions and Videos, Nov 2nd
2021 Election Final Governor Predictions | Analysis Virginia and New Jersey
FINAL Virginia Governor Prediction #Short
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 and News: Latest Campaign News, Nov 2nd
Articles that are written by partisan websites are marked ether by(D) or (R). Article choices are driven by their appearance on Google.
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 : Latest Videos, Nov 2nd
Polls in Virginia governor’s race show Glenn Youngkin pulling ahead
Don Lemon looks ahead to tight Virginia gubernatorial race
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Latest Tweets, Nov 1st
Gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin is in Virginia Beach tonight trying to get some last minute votes before Election Day @13NewsNow
Together, we can move Virginia forward. Make a plan to vote.
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Demographics of the State
As per the 2020 Census
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Voter Registration along Party lines
As of 9/1/2021, the Commonwealth of Virginia has 5,923,401 registered voters. In the latest Fox News Poll, 44% of the voters identified themselves as Democrat or lean Democrat, 40% as Republican or leaning Republican, and 16% as Independent
Regional differences have begun to play a large part in Virginia politics in recent times
- Urban and growing suburban areas, including much of Northern Virginia and recently, Richmond form the Democratic Party base
- Rural southern and western areas support the Republican Party
- Democratic support also persists in union-influenced Roanoke in Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: What are the top issues?
The most pressing issues as per respondents when asked (Fox News Poll) to choose the top issues are
- Economy and Jobs (32%)
- COVID (20%)
- Health care (12%).
- Taxes (9%)
- Abortion/ Crime/Education – 7% each
Virginia Governor Polls 2021: How to track Glenn Youngkin’s campaign ?
Virginia Governor Polls 2021: How to track Terry McAuliffe’s campaign?
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : How Virginia has voted in past electoral races.
From 1952 Virginia has been a swing state on the National Presidential level, and a swing state on the Gubernatorial level since 1969 .
The state had been known to elect its Governor from the party that is not in the White House before the 2013 Virginia Governor Race. However, in recent years a state which was once reliably Republican at the national level has gradually shifted towards first becoming a swing state and has now shifted more towards the Democrats than the Republicans.
The Republicans have not won a single statewide election since 2009.
A shift that many believe is due to the growing population in the liberal-leaning suburbs of Northern Virginia now a Democrat Bastion which borders D.C. and Maryland, and the suburbs of Central Virginia i.e. the state capital of Richmond
Both its Senators in the US Senate have been Democrats since 2008 , 7 out of 11 House Representatives are from the Democratic Party. Both houses in the state are held by a Democratic Majority. Add to that the last time a Republican was elected to a Statewide office was in 2009.
The 2017 election had the highest voter turnout percentage in a Virginia governor election in twenty years and Ralph Northam won the election by the largest margin for a Democrat since 1985.
A)Past Virginia Governor Election Results
|Year||Winning Candidate||Winner’s Voteshare||Runner-up||Runner-ups Voteshare|
|2017||Ralph Northam||53.9%||Ed Gillespie||45.0%|
|2013||Terry McAuliffe(D)||47.8%||Ken Cuccinelli(R)||45.2%|
|2009||Bob McConnell(R)||58.6%||Creigh Deeds(D)||41.3%|
|2005||Tim Kaine(D)||51.39%||Jery Kilgore(R)||46.0%|
B) Past Virginia Presidential Race Results
After re-construction from 1872 to 1948, Virginia voted for the Democratic Presidential Candidate at the National Level .
From 1952 to 2004, except in 1964 Virginia voted for the Republican Presidential Candidate.
But since 2008, the state has voted for Democratic Candidates.
|Year||Democratic Candidate||Democrat VS||Republican Candidate||Republican VS|
|2020||Joe Biden||54.11%||Donald J Trump||44.00%|
|2016||Hillary Clinton||49.75%||Donald J Trump||44.43%|
|2012||Barack Obama||51.16%||Mitt Romney||47.28%|
|2008||Barack Obama||52.63%||John McCain||46.33%|
|2004||John Kerry||45.48%||George Bush||53.68%|
C)House of Representative Races
Compare the difference between Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 House of Representatives Races and the US Presidential Race 2020. That leaves food for thought.
|Year||Democratic Voteshare||Republican Voteshare|
Compare and tally Tables A,B and C first from 2012 to 2016 and then in 2018 to 2020. Earlier there used to be split voting where some people would vote for one party in one election and for another party in the next one.
But it seems to be slowly disappearing especially in the last few years