Who will Win Oregon Governor Race?
The Oregon Governor Race is heading for a dead heat finish with the top three candidates having an equal chance of leading Oregon in the future.
The incumbent Governor Kate Brown is term restricted, therefore she will not be contesting the upcoming Oregon Governor Race. Tina Kotek, who served as speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives from 2013 to 2022 is the Democratic Party’s candidate for the upcoming Oregon Governor Race.
Tina Kotek is up against the Republican Challenger Christine Drazan and the independent candidate Betsy Johnson.
The Oregon Governor Race is scheduled for November 8th, 2022. A few polls have been released for the upcoming Oregon Governor’s election. Here is what the polls have predicted so far:
Who will Win Oregon Governor Race: Latest Polls
| Date | Tina Kotek (D) | Christine Drazan (R) | Betsy Johnson (I) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clout Research | Aug 10–14 | 32% | 33% | 21% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 28–30 | 31% | 32% | 24% |
| GS Strategy Group (I) | June 23–29 | 33% | 23% | 30% |
In the last 2-3 months only one poll number has been released. The poll have been conducted by the Republican-leaning Clout Research. The poll gives, Christine Drazan (R) a 1% lead over the Democrat Tina Kotek.
The poll number from the last week of June also had Drazan leading Kotek by 1%.
Who Will Win Oregon Governor Race: Main Issues Concerning the Voters of Oregon?
In August DHM Research carried out a survey to understand the main issues concerning the voters of Oregon. The Abortion law is one of the top issues and the Democratic Party is set to benefit from it but the main concern of the voters is the rising cost of Living which is directly related to bad economic conditions and the increasing inflation rate.
Oregon has been a blue state with the state electing a Republican Governor last in the year1979. It is now over 3 decades since a Republican entered the Governor’s office in Oregon.
This time things are gradually changing. The Growing Cost of Living in Oregon is directly hurting Democratic Party. The job approval rating of President Biden in the state is worse and only 23% of the Oregon voters believe that the country is headed in the right direction. Talking about the state, only 30% believe that the state is moving in the right direction.
The growing number of crimes in the state is 2nd important issue that the voters will consider before they cast their vote. Homelessness and Healthcare in 3rd on the list which is followed by Public education. The abortion issue is 5th on the list which may be a concern for Tina Kotek as the Democratic Party is highly banking on the abortion issue.
Here are the main issues concerning the Voters of Oregon:
| Issues | Seriousness |
| Cost Of Living | 70% |
| Crime | 63% |
| Homelessness | 60% |
| Health Care | 60% |
| Public Education | 55% |
| Abortion | 53% |
| Gun Policy | 52% |
Who will Win Oregon Governor Race: Observations
For the Democratic Party winning the Oregon election may not be easy as it was in the last few elections. In previous elections, the fight was mainly a 2-way fight and the Democrats have always had an edge. However, this time the fight is a 3-way fight and the independent candidate is equally strong with the as Democratic Party and the Republican candidate.
The Democratic Party is failing on the issues of the economy, crimes, and healthcare. Despite the abortion law giving them much-needed relief, the issue of the rising Cost of Living, rising crimes, and healthcare are turning out to be nightmares for the Democratic party.
With respect to the popularity of the candidates, all three candidates have almost equal search volumes with Betsy Johnson having a marginal lead. However, the social media sentiment for the GOP candidate Christine Drazan is the best among the three. Betsy Johson has the worst.
One more worrying factor for Tina Kotek is people losing trust in Democratic Party. The incumbent Governor Kate Brown (D) has an approval rating of 41%, the lowest in the United States.
Tina Kotek on the other hand has a 27.8% favorable rating while Christine Drazan has a 29.7% favorable rating. Tina Kotek’s unfavorable ratings stand at 45.8% while Christie Drazan’s unfavorable ratings are 25.3%.
The polls have shown a close fight but all the polls have also shown around 15% of the voters are undecided. This may be a worrying sign for Tina Kotek as the state has only 34% registered Democrats while 40% are registered as unaffiliated or Independent.
For Tina Kotek, with almost 40 years of anti-incumbency towards her party and the failure of the Biden administration on the key fronts may be hurtful. In order to be elected as Governor of Oregon, she will have to win a large majority of the Democrat voters and around 25-30% of the independent voters.
Christine Drazan on the other hand will have to carry most of the Republican vote (25%) and about 25-30% of the unaffiliated vote.
Oregon Governor Race: Why Oregon’s INSANE 3-Way Governor Race Could End in Disaster
Who will Win Oregon Governor Race: Conclusion
The Oregon Governor Race has become tighter than expected and as we move closer to the election, the top three candidates are putting in all they have to lure the voters. The recent polls have given GOP candidate Christine Drazan an edge but Crowdwisdom360 predicts the undecided voters to be the deciding factor. If Drazan makes no mistakes in the coming days, a Republican may be elected as a Governor of Oregon in decades.
