4 Reasons why Kari Lake will defeat Katie Hobbs
It is TV Anchor Kari Lake (R) vs Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) in Arizona’s Governor race. The Republicans have dominated Arizona’s Gubernatorial elections since 2009 and they appear to be well placed to win again. While Katie Hobbs had a great start, we believe she is beginning to lose momentum.
4 Reasons why Kari Lake will beat Katie Hobbs
- Katie Hobbs has made no progress in the polls over the last 3 months. In June after the Dobbs Decision (Roe vs Wade), Katie Hobbs led by 5 points, 46% to 41%. In the latest Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs Polls, Katie Hobbs is down 1% at 45% while Kari Lake has gained 4% and is now polling at the same level as Hobbs.
- Katie Hobbs is struggling on Social Media. Democrats tend to perform well on Social Media (on average) but that is not the case with Katie Hobbs, she is trailing Kari Lake by a substantial margin.
- Katie Hobbs did not gain significantly after the Dobbs decision. Unlike Democratic party candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania, Katie Hobbs gained just 2 points after the Dobbs decision, that lead is now gone.
- The GOP has a substantial lead to fall back on: While it is true that Trump lost the 2020 election by a narrow margin, GOP candidates in Arizona’s Gubernatorial elections have won on an average by 13% points. In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 3 points at this point in time. Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden.
Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs: Recent Tweets, Engagement Levels
An example of Katie Hobb’s campaign issues.
Katie Hobbs’s Tweets have much better engagement levels (Hourly basis) than Kari Lake’s tweets but she is outnumbered by the number of negative tweets by users on Twitter. This creates negative sentiments that appear to be overwhelming Katie Hobbs’s campaign. This level of domination is despite Katie Hobbs having spent twice that of Kari Lake in this quarter.