Will Trump be the Next President?

Donald Trump 2024: Analysing the reasons why we think Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.

Donald Trump 2024: Here are 4 reasons why Donald Trump will be elected President in 2024

  1. Track Record: Trump had the 2020 election in the bag until COVID hit the US and then everything went downhill from there. He alienated suburban and educated voters which in turn helped Biden to pull off an upset. However, 24 months so far Biden has yielded poor management (In Afghanistan), spiraling prices, and a fear of recession. Further, Biden has not come through as someone who appears to be in control of the administration. Trump on the other hand is perceived to have managed the economy well, at least until COVID hit America. As a consequence, Elections in most states during the last 12 months have shown Independent voters moving toward the GOP and this is before Inflation hit the country.
  2. Polls: Donald Trump is leading all GOP and General Election Polls (Versus Biden). For example, Morning Post released a survey on the popularity of Donald Trump, and in most states, 8 out of 10 likely Republican voters preferred Trump over the rest of the candidates. In theory, Florida Governor DeSantis could mount a serious challenge against Trump but Trump has a solid base in the Republican party to beat DeSantis. It is likely DeSantis will stay away from challenging Trump and instead run for President in 2028
  3. Other Risks are Overstated: Many have argued that the Jan 6th committee could derail Trump’s 2024 run. So far there is little evidence to prevent this from happening. Firstly, the committee has limited time to present its findings given the distinct possibility of a Change in Control of Congress later this year. Further, while there may be messages and calls suggesting that the President may not have acted far more aggressively to stop the attacks, there is little to suggest he was complicit in planning those attacks. So the committee will rely on testimonies that will create discomfort but are unlikely to prevent Trump’s ascendancy to the Presidency in 2024.
  4. Health: Donald Trump has reported no serious health issues that would prevent him from contesting the 2024 election. He boasted 3 months ago that he was in better shape than Barack Obama or George Bush. His only concern was weight loss and he received advice from Dr. Oz to lose weight.
  5. Media Attention: Donald Trump seems to enjoy the media’s attention and that helped him a lot during his 2016 campaign. Although his social media presence has taken a significant blow after his accounts were banned he still seems to be very much trending over his comments and remarks. The Former President is even referred to as a media magnet in the sense that his comments or remarks seem to dominate the newspapers and social media for the day.
  6. Swift Fundraising Machines at his disposal: Trump is known to extensively raise funds online by selling merchandise prominently through the red “Make America Great Again” hats. These sales fueled cash inflows and provided a great database of supporters and customers who would be easily approached for further support. This not only helps capitalize on his considerable small-dollar base but also helps by establishing a massive war chest. There is no doubt that with swift fundraising machines at his disposal and remarkable support from the GOP at the grassroots and institutional level, Trump’s Reelection bid would have no shortage of funds.

US Mid-Term Polls and Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Trump Favorability Polls

After over two years of leaving the White House, Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines. Trump had left the office with one of the lowest approval ratings at 38% with a disapproval of 49%. And now even after a tough blow from the Jan 6th hearings, he remains the top contender for the 2024 Presidential Race.

His favorability polls showcase an average of 43% Favorability and around 54% Unfavorability. He’s been in a close contest against Biden over the past few months more than he was for the entirety of 2020. According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided. Despite continuing trials to hold Donald Trump accountable for the capital attacks, his strong grip over the GOP still seems untroubled.

Harris Insights & AnalyticsJune 1545%48%
YouGovJune 1343%54%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 1237%59%

Donald Trump 2024: Latest Trafalgar Group Poll Result

The biggest challenge to Donald Trump 2024 is likely to come from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. However, the latest Trafalgar Poll for the GOP Presidential Nomination comes as a major boost for Donald Trump. TPUSA polled conference attendees from around the country. As per the poll:

  1. 78.7% of attendees said they would vote for Trump.
  2. 19% said they would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
  3. 1% said they’d vote for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.
  4. 0.5% said they’d vote for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
  5. 0.3% said they would vote for Sen. Ted Cruz.

The poll gives a major boost to Donald Trump who is eyeing the White House once again in 2024.

His main challenger among the Republicans is set to be Ron DeSantis. These are the strengths of DeSantis:

  • DeSantis is likely to be re-elected as Governor in November this year. While he narrowly beat his Democratic party rival in 2018, he is significantly ahead of his rivals this year
  • DeSantis enjoys solid approval ratings in his home state and is one of the best across the country. In particular amongst Independent voters
  • DeSantis is also a traditional conservative which is also why he has performed well in GOP Straw Polls in Wisconsin and in Colorado yesterday
  • DeSantis has also shown tremendous resourcefulness in fundraising with over $100 million raised for his Gubernatorial run so far.

By every metric so far, DeSantis sounds like a huge barrier for Donald Trump in 2024. But here are 3 reasons why DeSantis may not even contest Trump in 2024

  1. To win against Trump, he will have to attack Trump’s presidency. Any attacks on Trump’s presidency will harm the Republican party (and any future runs) apart from antagonizing a large number of Trump Loyalists. And this is not just about Trump. Sitting presidents are rarely challenged in their run for Presidency and though Trump is not the sitting President, he will run on his record.
  2. DeSantis may have had an easy run against a leaderless and divided Democratic party in Florida but a challenge against Trump will be an entirely different ball game. Jeb Bush also a Florida Republican Governor was dismantled by Trump in just one debate.
  3. Lastly, DeSantis may not exactly be running on a great performance record. For example, Florida’s per capita income is lower than the national average but under DeSantis, it failed to outperform the national average. Florida continues to have a lower Labor force participation than the national average. Trump will seize upon such gaps and make the most of them.

Whether Ron DeSantis would eventually run or not will also be determined by the situation in 2023 and 2024 but at the moment, no number of Straw Polls will discourage Trump from running in 2024.

Donald Trump 2024: 5 Reasons why Trump will be the next President of the United States

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