Kentucky Governor Polls: Who Will Win Kentucky Governor Race 2023?
Kentucky Governor Polls 2023: The incumbent Andy Beshear is set to return as Governor of Kentucky as per the latest poll.
Latest Kentucky Polls (Average): Beshear (D): 49.3% Cameron (R): 43.3%
Search Trends and Social Media Sentiment
- Google Trends
- Beshear (D): 62.5% Cameron (R): 37.5%
- Social Media Sentiment
- Beshear (D): -27.9% Cameron (R): -21.3%
Over the past two decades, both Republican and Democratic parties have had their governors in Kentucky. The gubernatorial tenure is four years, and in the last five governor’s races in Kentucky, the Democratic Party has secured victory three times, while the Republicans have successfully won two terms in the governor’s office.
The incumbent Governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear was elected in 2019. It was one of the closest elections in Kentucky since 1899 as Andy Beshear won the election by just over 5,000 votes or 0.37%. He defeated the Republican incumbent Matt Bevin.
In 2023, Kentucky will once again vote to elect its new Governor. Daniel Cameron and Andy Beshear won the primary elections from the Republican and Democratic parties.
Who Will Win Kentucky Governor Race?
- Polls: Beshear
- Search Volume (7 Days): Andy Beshear
- Social Media Sentiment: Daniel Cameron
- Governor Andy Beshear announced more than $3 million in funding for various projects in Kentucky.
- $1 million for the North Manchester Water Association to extend water service to unserved areas in Clay County. This project will provide clean, safe drinking water to over 100 households and businesses in Clay County.
- $1 million for the Volunteers of America to renovate a building in downtown Manchester to create a new homeless shelter. This project will provide much-needed shelter and services to homeless individuals and families in Clay County.
- $1 million for the Hyden-Leslie Water Association to extend water service to unserved areas in Leslie County. This project will provide clean, safe drinking water to over 200 households and businesses in Leslie County.
- During the 143rd Fancy Farm event, Governor Beshear discussed the state’s thriving economy, while his opponent Daniel Cameron focused on pressing social matters.
Kentucky Governor Polls: Observations and Insights
- Highly Competitive Race: The race for the Kentucky Governorship is highly competitive, with the Democratic candidate, Andy Beshear leading with 47% compared to the Republican candidate, Daniel Cameron’s 45%.
- Underestimation of Beshear’s Popularity: In the 2019 governor polls, major polls underestimated Beshear, suggesting a potential for hidden support that may not be reflected in current polls. This could mean Beshear has a higher chance of winning than current polls suggest.
- Greater Online Presence for Beshear: Beshear has been consistently leading in Google Search trends both in the last 7 and 30 days but this is typical of an Incumbent. However, what really helps Beshear is that Daniel Cameron’s Social Media sentiment is slightly more negative than Beshear’s.
- Demographics Factor: The demographics of Kentucky, being predominantly White with a median age of around 38.6, and a slight female majority, may play a role in the election outcome. This is particularly so because each of the Candidates belongs to races that typically do not vote in large majorities for the party they represent.
- Public Stance on Key Issues: Beshear has positioned himself in opposition to child gender reassignment surgery, despite Republican claims to the contrary. His approval rating is high among all voters, including Republicans, which may help him appeal across party lines. Cameron, on the other hand, has chosen to focus on crime, rural values, and Medicaid reform, trying to position himself as a viable alternative for leading Kentucky.
Kentucky Governor Polls: Beshear vs Cameron
Andy Beshear is hoping for a second term this November. He has undoubtedly been one of the most popular governors in America. Beshear has got the support of not just Democrats and independents, but also the state’s GOP voters. He accomplished this by overseeing Kentucky’s all-time highest budget surplus and guiding the state through a robust post-pandemic economic rebound. Beshear also managed recovery efforts after severe tornadoes and floods, which disproportionately affected rural, conservative regions of the state.
Daniel Cameron could become the first Black Republican governor in the US if he wins. He’s well-liked in Kentucky. Cameron became known for taking legal action against the Beshear and Biden governments on topics like abortion, vaccine rules, and ending a border policy from the time of President Trump. He also managed the inquiry into Breonna Taylor’s shooting, deciding not to charge the officers. The Republican leader got Donald Trump’s support and won the May primary.
Kentucky Governor Polls: Andy Beshear vs. Daniel Cameron Polls
|Date(s)||Beshear (D)||Cameron (R)|
|Average of Polls||Aug 23rd||49.3%||43.3%|
|Public Policy Polling (D)||Aug 10th||49%||41%|
|Public Opinion Strategies (R)||July 19–20||52%||42%|
|Cygnal (R)||May 22–23||47%||47%|
How Accurate Were the Polls in 2019?
The two major polls underestimated Beshear.
|Pollster||Bevin Error||Beshear Error||Total Error|
|Trafalgar Group (R)*||Overestimated 3.2||Underestimated 2.2||5.4|
|Mason-Dixon*||Underestimated 2.8||Underestimated 3.2||6.0|
Kentucky Governor Polls: Google Search Trends
- Andy Beshear: 62.5%
- Daniel Cameron: 37.5%
- Andy Beshear: 59%
- Daniel Cameron: 41%
Kentucky Governor Polls: Social Media Sentiments
- Beshear: -27.9%
- Cameron: -21.3%
Kentucky Governor Race Polls 2023: Impact on 2024 Presidential Elections
The highly anticipated 2023 governor’s race is unfolding in Kentucky, with the Republican nominee, Daniel Cameron, who is also the state’s attorney general, and his supporters starting to outline their strategies to challenge the Democratic incumbent, Governor Andy Beshear.
This race, much like the state legislative contests in Virginia happening this autumn, holds significant implications for the 2024 elections. Both political parties are using these races to test and refine their messaging strategies, which they plan to deploy nationwide in the upcoming presidential election year. Democrats, in particular, are keen to learn which messages resonate with voters in increasingly Republican-leaning states.
The Kentucky gubernatorial race will serve as a crucial test to determine if a Democratic incumbent can prevail in a deeply conservative state, where the Democratic Party’s voter registration advantage has diminished in recent years, and national political themes have taken center stage.
Furthermore, this contest will unfold as the battle for Senate control in 2024 looms, with the outcomes in states with Democratic incumbents and predominantly Republican electorates potentially shaping the majority in the Senate. Senators such as Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Joe Manchin in West Virginia, like Governor Beshear, have cultivated their own political identities. However, their reelection campaigns will hinge on convincing voters to split their tickets, especially during a presidential election year.
Kentucky Governor Race Polls 2023: Primary Election Results
- Andy Beshear: 91.3%
- Geoff Young: 5.1%
- Peppy Martin: 3.6%
- Daniel Cameron: 47.7%
- Ryan Quarles: 21.7%
- Kelly Craft: 17.2%
Kentucky Governor Polls: What Happened In The Last Kentucky Governor Race?
The last Kentucky Governor Race was held on November 5th, 2019. The Republican Party was represented by the then incumbent Governor Matt Bevin. The 2019 Kentucky Governor election was the closest gubernatorial election in Kentucky since 1899 by total votes, and the closest ever by percentage. It was also the closest race of the 2019 gubernatorial election cycle.
Democratic nominee, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent Matt Bevin by just over 5,000 votes, or 0.37%. Beshear got 49.20% of the vote while Bevin polled 48.83%.
|Votes Polled||Vote Share%|
|Matt Bevin (incumbent)||704,754||48.83%|
Kentucky Governor Race Polls 2023: Demography
Kentucky was previously part of Virginia and later on in 1792, it became its union territory and is also considered to be the 15th state of the USA. Currently, Kentucky has become the 26th Largest State in terms of Population. The population growth rate is 0.47% which makes Kentucky 34th among the US states. The Largest city in Kentucky by population is Louisville.
Kentucky has approximately 38.6 years of median age and a slight gender majority of women population with 50.8% and 49.2% male population.
According to recent data, the population composition of Kentucky includes:
- White: 86.25%
- Black and African American: 8.10%
- Asian: 1.53%
- Two or More races: 2.80%
- Other races: 1.08%
- Native American: 0.19%
The population of Kentucky has been rising for the past few years. Around 25% of the African American population was prior to the Civil War but now it has declined.