Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, predicts Kamala Harris will win the upcoming presidential election.
The 13 Keys to the White House, developed by Distinguished Professor of History Allan J. Lichtman at American University, is an analytical framework for predicting the outcome of American presidential elections. Unlike polls and poll-based projections, this model focuses on the larger picture, the consequential events during a president’s term, instead of campaigning and rhetoric.
Was Lichtman Wrong Even in 2016?
Allan Lichtman boasts of predicting 9 out of 10 presidential elections correctly using his 13 Keys to the White House. The only time his model failed was in 2000. In the 2000 election, Allan Lichtman predicted Al Gore would win, but after a contested Supreme Court decision, George W. Bush was declared the victor. Lichtman referred to the outcome as a “stolen election.” Critics also pointed to Lichtman’s 2016 prediction, claiming he forecasted Trump would win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. Lichtman clarified this misunderstanding, stating the claim was based on an out-of-context quote from a preliminary article. He emphasized that his final prediction correctly foresaw Trump winning the Electoral College, regardless of the popular vote.
Lichtman explained that the “13 Keys to the White House” system, which he has used to predict elections, focuses on broader historical patterns rather than state-by-state analysis or polling data. In the 2016 case, he stated that while he didn’t predict state outcomes, his model still forecasted the overall winner of the election. This clarification was meant to address those who misinterpreted an early remark from his article. His confidence in the system remained firm, noting that the keys predict the overall victor, not necessarily the vote breakdown.
Will Lichtman Go Wrong This Time?
Allan Lichtman with his Keys to the White House has been able to predict 9 of the last 10 US elections. This time his Keys to the White House predicts a win for Kamala Harris. In his latest prediction, 8 of the 13 keys favor Kamala Harris while only 3 favor Donald Trump.
However, the polls and the odds are not mirroring Allan Lichtman’s prediction. Harris is behind Trump in the majority of the swing states and pollsters are now predicting a win for Donald Trump. Allan Lichtman in 2000 predicted a win for Al Gore, however, George W Bush went on to defeat Al Gore and become the US President. Considering the polls and odds, Lichtman may go wrong with his prediction for the 2nd time. Betting markets now give Trump over 50% chance of defeating Harris while the pollsters predict Kamala Harris to win the popular vote but Trump will likely win the Electoral Votes required to be inaugurated as the next President of the United States.
Allan Lichtman’s Latest Video Analysis
Allan Lichtman’s recent YouTube video delves into his prediction record.
In the video, Allan Lichtman discusses his long-standing record of accurate political predictions, beginning with Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1982, a forecast made during a time when Reagan’s approval ratings were historically low. Lichtman clarifies that his predictions are nonpartisan and based on his 13 Keys system, not his personal political views. He highlights his successful predictions of conservative presidents, including Donald Trump in 2016, which drew significant criticism, especially in predominantly Democratic Washington, D.C., where he teaches at American University.
Lichtman addresses two major criticisms of his work. First, regarding the 2000 election, he explains that his prediction of Al Gore winning the presidency was accurate based on voter intent. He attributes the outcome to Florida’s mishandling of African-American votes, calling it a “stolen election.” He cites reports and studies confirming that if all valid votes had been counted, Gore would have won Florida by tens of thousands of votes.
The second criticism pertains to his 2016 prediction of Trump’s victory. Some claim he only predicted Trump would win the popular vote. Lichtman refutes this, clarifying that his system predicts the overall election winner, not just the popular vote. He highlights how he accurately predicted a Trump victory, despite most pollsters and experts forecasting a win for Hillary Clinton. His prediction was well-documented in his writings and widely recognized by both political figures and scholars, including a letter from Donald Trump himself congratulating Lichtman.
Lichtman concludes by emphasizing the broad recognition and acclaim his 2016 prediction received, including being invited to present at the American Political Science Association and being cited in highly trafficked Washington Post articles. He reaffirms his confidence in his prediction system, which has consistently proven successful.
Lictman’s Latest Developments
The Problem with Political “Science”
In Allan Lichtman’s video “The Problem with Political Science,” he critiques the field for its focus on modeling itself after hard sciences like physics and chemistry, which leads to significant errors in political forecasting. He highlights the disconnect between political science and real-world human behavior, arguing that reliance on objective, quantitative models overlooks the complexity of political dynamics. Lichtman points out notable forecasting failures, such as incorrect predictions for the 2006 and 2020 presidential elections by respected scholars, emphasizing that political scientists prioritize flawed methods over accurate results.
He advocates for a broader approach that combines quantitative and judgmental indicators to better capture the nuances of human behavior and improve the accuracy of predictions. Lichtman presents his own model, “The Keys to the White House,” which has a proven track record and emphasizes the importance of governance over mere campaigning. He believes that focusing on substantive issues can lead to more meaningful political discourse and help break the cycle of superficial, negative campaigning. Ultimately, Lichtman calls for a shift in political science towards a more relevant and socially impactful discipline.
Will October Surprise Derail Kamala Harris’ Chance?
Allan Lichtman announced in early September that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory and confidently predicted she would defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election. He dismissed the notion that any unforeseen events between now and November 5 could alter this prediction, stating, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise.”
An “October surprise” typically refers to a significant news event that unfolds in the closing weeks of a presidential campaign, often with the potential to shift voter sentiment dramatically. The term gained traction during the 1980 presidential election when Jimmy Carter faced challenges related to the Iran hostage crisis. Since then, numerous incidents in October—ranging from scandals to major policy announcements—have been dubbed “October surprises,” usually perceived as late-game disruptions that could impact the election outcome.
“The keys gauge the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway with the events of the campaign,” Lichtman explained.
Confident in his analysis, Lichtman asserts that no last-minute developments will undermine his prediction that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious, potentially making history as America’s first female president. His perspective challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding late-breaking news and its influence on electoral outcomes, emphasizing the importance of long-term trends over transient events.
Who is Allan Lichtman, and how accurately has he been?
Allan Lichtman, an esteemed professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., has garnered considerable acclaim for his extraordinary ability: correctly predicting the outcomes of nine out of the past ten presidential elections. His predictive prowess stems from the development of his innovative model, famously known as the 13 Keys. Through meticulous analysis and a deep understanding of historical patterns, Lichtman has established himself as a prominent figure in the realm of political forecasting.
Considering the available data, Allan Lichtman has been able to predict 9 of the last 10 US elections using his 13 Keys to the White House. In 2000, Allan Lichtman predicted a win for Al Gore, however, George W Bush went on to defeat Al Gore and become the US President.
Here is how the framework performed over the 10 Elections
| Year | % of True Keys | % of False Keys | Predicted Winner | Actual Winner |
| 1984 | 84.62 | 15.38 | Ronald Reagan | Ronald Reagan |
| 1988 | 76.92 | 23.08 | George H. W. Bush | George H. W. Bush |
| 1992 | 53.85 | 46.15 | Bill Clinton | Bill Clinton |
| 1996 | 61.54 | 38.46 | Bill Clinton | Bill Clinton |
| 2000 | 61.54 | 38.46 | Al Gore | George W. Bush |
| 2004 | 69.23 | 30.77 | George W. Bush | George W. Bush |
| 2008 | 30.77 | 69.23 | Barack Obama | Barack Obama |
| 2012 | 76.92 | 23.08 | Barack Obama | Barack Obama |
| 2016 | 46.15 | 53.85 | Donald Trump | Donald Trump |
| 2020 | 46.15 | 53.85 | Joe Biden | Joe Biden |
Based on our analysis of the above data, the variables that have most consistently sided with the winner of the Presidential Election are:
- “Charismatic Incumbent” with a consistency of 90%
- “Major Policy Change” with a consistency of 70%
- “Midterm Gains”, “Strong Long-Term Economy”, and “Major Foreign/Military Success” with a consistency of 60% each.
What is Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House?
Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys system to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. The Keys are:
- Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
- No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Allan Lichtman Election Prediction
Allan Lichtman’s Assessment of the Keys (Image Courtesy: 13keystracker. com
As per the latest update, 8 of the 13 keys favor Kamala Harris while only 3 favor Donald Trump. As per Allan Lichtman’s model, Kamala Harris is expected to win the presidential election.
Allan Lichtman Political Prediction 2024
Allan Lichtman has been using completely different methods to forecast elections. Allan Lichtman’s Forecasting of the US election is based on the keys that he devised. Since the very beginning, Allan Lichtman’s Political Prediction for 2024 has been in favor of a Democrat. Initially, Lichtman favored Joe Biden to defeat Trump and now the latest Allan Lichtman Polls are in favor of the Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris.
PoliticalPulse Assessment of Allan Lichtman’s Keys
Here are the keys based on our assessment. The keys indicate a 6-5 lead for Trump against a Democratic party candidate [Kamala Harris]. We have changed the status for Scandal after the failed assassination attempt on Trump and the perceived failure of the Secret Service to protect Donald Trump.
We differ with Lichtman’s assessment of the short-term economy with Americans continuing to complain about the cost of living. We even differ on Party Mandate or No Primary contest as Kamala Harris did not face primaries. Polls continue to predict a win for Donald Trump.
| Key | Status | Who is leading? |
| Mid Terms | Against Harris | Trump |
| Party Mandate | Unclear | Trump |
| Incumbency | Biden has dropped out | Trump |
| Third party | Uncertain | Democrat Candidate |
| Short-term economy | Uncertain | Trump |
| Long-term economy | In Favor of Biden | Democrat Candidate |
| Policy change | In Favor of Biden | Democrat Candidate |
| Social unrest | In Favor of Biden | Democrat Candidate |
| Scandal | Uncertain | Uncertain |
| Foreign/military failure | Against Biden | Trump |
| Foreign/military success | Against Biden | Trump |
| Incumbent charisma | Against Biden | Uncertain |
| Challenger charisma | In Favor of Biden | Democrat Candidate |
Despite Allan Lichtman’s Keys to the White House clearly favoring Kamala House, our assessment has Trump ahead of Harris. However, this does not mean Trump will win. There are some keys which are uncertain and could decide the overall outcome.
USA Voters Registration By State and Demographic
Allan Lichtman Polls: Strengths and Weakness of Kamala Harris
Allan Lichtman using his 13 Keys to the White House identified 8 strengths and 5 weaknesses for Kamala Harris. The strengths are the keys that Kamala Harris is winning while weaknesses are the ones that Harris is losing. Here are the keys which Harris is winning and losing:
Keys Harris Winning
Kamala Harris has secured eight of Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys to the White House:
- Key 2 – No Primary Contest: With Joe Biden’s endorsement clearing the field for Harris, there are no significant challengers from within the party.
- Key 4 – No Third Party: Historically, third parties are detrimental to the White House party. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need 5% of the vote to influence this key, with a potential stabilization at 10% deemed unlikely by Lichtman.
- Key 5 – Strong Short-Term Economy: No recession has been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research this year.
- Key 6 – Strong Long-Term Economy: Economic growth under Biden has exceeded that of the previous two terms, adjusted for inflation.
- Key 7 – Major Policy Change: Biden’s policies mark a significant departure from the Trump administration.
- Key 8 – No Social Unrest: Lichtman notes that only massive unrest, akin to the 1960s or Black Lives Matter protests, could impact this key. The current unrest is not considered significant enough.
- Key 9 – No Scandal: There has been no bipartisan-recognized corruption scandal involving the president.
- Key 13 – Uncharismatic Challenger: Donald Trump is perceived as unappealing to voters across party lines.
Keys Harris Losing
Kamala Harris on the other is not winning the following keys:
- Key 1 – Midterm Gains: The White House party wins this key if they hold more House seats after the 2022 midterms than in 2018. This key is currently not in Harris’s favor.
- Key 3 – Incumbent Seeking Re-election: Harris would need Biden to exit office before November for her to be considered the incumbent and win this key. As it stands, this key is not yet secured.
- Key 12 – Charismatic Incumbent: The incumbent must appeal across party lines. Harris has yet to demonstrate this level of broad appeal.
Undecided Keys
- Key 10 – No Foreign/Military Failure: The unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine contribute to losing this key.
- Key 11 – Major Foreign/Military Success: Similarly, the ongoing conflicts mean Democrats lose this key. A successful U.S.-brokered ceasefire could change this.
Overall Kamala Harris has the advantage of 8 keys which is enough to conclude her possible victory in the upcoming Presidential election.
Allan Lichtman’s FAQ’s
What is Lichtman’s Prediction Record?
Considering the available data, Allan Lichtman has been able to predict 9 of the last 10 US elections using his 13 Keys to the White House. In 2000, Allan Lichtman predicted a win for Al Gore, however, George W Bush went on to defeat Al Gore and become the US President.
Is Allan Lichtman a Democrat or a Republican?
Allan Lichtman ran for a U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.
What is Allan Lichtman’s Prediction for Election 2024?
Allan Lichtman has predicted a win for Joe Biden using his 13 Keys to the White House.
Will Kamala Harris Defeat Donald Trump? Allan Lichtman’s Opinion
For the 2024 US presidential election, Allan Lichtman had predicted a win for Joe Biden despite his dismal performance in the first Presidential Debate. Additionally, he felt it would be a strategic mistake if Joe Biden stepped aside in the election race, and suggested he should resign as President, allowing Kamala Harris to take office before she is declared the Democratic Party’s official candidate.
As per Lichtman, Kamala Harris is younger and has no issue with her mental sharpness. If Biden resigns and allows Kamala Harris to become the US President for the next few months, she would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key.
However, the current scenario is not as per Lichtman’s suggestion. Despite Joe Biden endorsing Kamala Harris, he is likely to continue as US President. This will uncheck the incumbency key and also the scenario could be similar to the 1968 Democratic convention held in Chicago after the assassination of Robert F Kennedy. Kamal Harris could be declared the official candidate but there could be a confidence vacuum and this could give Donald Trump an advantage of Two Keys thus making his path to the White House easier.
In conclusion, despite Allan Lichtman not making the final prediction as he is expected to do after the Democratic Party’s convention, the current scenario gives Donald Trump an edge over Harris. However, he expects Harris to win if the entire Democrats rally behind her.
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