2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who will be the Next President?

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who will win the 2024 election?

Biden vs Trump: Average of Last 3 Poll

Joe Biden: 43.3%
Donald Trump: 41.7%

Biden vs DeSantis: Average of Last 3 Polls

Joe Biden: 43.3%
Ron DeSantis: 37%

Who will be the Next US President Predictions? With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.

Some polls suggest that neither Biden nor Trump should contest the 2024 election. Still, unless there are serious rivals to challenge both candidates, they could become the candidates for their respective parties.

2024 US Election Polls: Observations & Insights

The majority of polls indicate that Joe Biden’s approval rating is below 50%, suggesting a significant level of dissatisfaction with his performance as president.
The close matchups between Biden and Trump in hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election polls indicate a competitive race, with neither candidate enjoying a clear advantage at this stage.
Betting platforms and prediction markets favor Biden as the front-runner for the 2024 presidential election, reflecting a perception that he has a higher likelihood of securing the Democratic Party’s nomination and potentially winning a second term.
The defeats of Trump-endorsed candidates in the mid-term elections suggest that Trump’s influence within the Republican Party may have waned, potentially impacting his ability to rally support for his own presidential bid.
Trump’s lead in Republican primary polls demonstrates his continued popularity within the party and suggests that he remains a formidable candidate for the nomination, despite potential challenges from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Despite leaving office with a relatively low approval rating, Donald Trump’s favorability polls indicate that he continues to have a strong base of support and remains a prominent figure in American politics.
Factors such as fundraising capabilities and media attention can significantly impact a candidate’s campaign, and Trump’s demonstrated ability to generate support and dominate news cycles could play a role in shaping the 2024 election landscape.

2024 Presidential Candidates Prediction

As things stand today Joe Biden and Donald Trump are likely to contest the 2024 Presidential election again. However, Donald Trump is likely to be strongly challenged by Ron DeSantis and how the primaries play out in the first few months could decide the Republican nomination.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Joe Biden Approval Rating

Average of Polls: June 4th, 2023

Approve: 39.3%
Disapprove: 55%

Premise: June 1st

Approve: 33%
Disapprove: 57%

Rasmussen Reports: June 1st

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 54%

YouGov: May 31st

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 54%

2024 Election Prediction: Biden vs Trump

Average of Polls: June 4th, 2023

Joe Biden: 43.3%
Donald Trump: 41.7%

Premise: June 1st

Joe Biden: 42%
Donald Trump: 44%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies: June 1st

Joe Biden: 45%
Donald Trump: 41%

YouGov: May 31st

Joe Biden: 43%
Donald Trump: 40%

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Will DeSantis be the next President?

Average of Polls: June 4th, 2023

Joe Biden: 43.3%
Ron DeSantis: 37%

Premise: June 1st

Joe Biden: 39%
Ron DeSantis: 38%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies: May 31st

Joe Biden: 48%
Ron DeSantis: 33%

Morning Consult: May 28th

Joe Biden: 43%
Ron DeSantis: 40%

2024 Presidential Candidates’ odds: Who is predicted to be president in 2024?

President 2024 Prediction: Joe Biden is a clear favorite on betting Platforms to be re-elected as the President of the United States in 2024. He Leads the charts followed by Former President Trump and Ron DeSantis.

	OddsChecker	Thelines
*Joe Biden*	+150	+175
*Donald Trump*	+240	+250
*Kamala Harris*	+3300	+2200
*Ron DeSantis*	+450	+400

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Prediction Market

After the mid-term election, the betting platforms have shifted their goalpost, and most of them predict Biden to serve a consecutive second term in the White House. Here are the latest preference from Smarkets for the 2024 Presidential election:

Ron DeSantis: 20%
Joe Biden: 33.4%
Donald Trump: 22.7%
Kamla Harris: 2.6%
Gavin Newsom: 2.3%

2024 Presidential Candidates: Republican Party

Before the mid-term election, Donald Trump was the tallest Republican leader and he had a big edge over the rest of the Republican candidates but the mid-term election result did not turn out to be what Trump might have expected as the candidates endorsed by him either lost or pulled out a marginal win. Trump had endorsed over 300 candidates for November 8th election.

Trump had on multiple forums tapped himself for the success of the Republican Party and with Biden’s Approval Rating seeing a sharp fall and the economic condition of the country in turmoil, the Republican Party was predicted to take control of the House as well as Senate. The Republican Party flipped the House, but they failed to flip the Senate. Trump-endorsed candidates were defeated in major states. Some of those candidates are:

Senate

Mehmet Oz was defeated in Pennsylvania by John Fetterman.
Don Bolduc was defeated in New Hampshire by Sen. Maggie Hassan.

Governor election

Tudor Dixon (Michigan)
Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania)
Lee Zeldin (New York)
Dan Cox (Maryland)
Geoff Diehl (Massachusetts)
Tim Michels (Wisconsin)
Darren Bailey (Illinois)
Mark Ronchetti (New Mexico)
Derek Schmid (Kansas)
Kari Lake (Arizona)

2024 Presidential Candidates: Who will run for President in 2024?

Who is running for president in 2024: Republican Party

In comparison, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis registered a massive win over Democrat Charlie Crist. Desantis has been positioning himself as a Republican candidate for the 2024 Presidential election and with the massive victory in Florida, he is almost certain to run.

Here are a few Republicans who have shown their interest in the Presidential bid:

Declared

Donald Trump
Vivek Ramaswamy

Interest Shown

Ron DeSantis
Mike Pence
Nikki Haley
Mike Pompeo
Ted Cruz
Liz Cheney

Who is More Likely to Win the Republican Nomination?

Donald Trump had maintained a huge lead over his fellow Republicans but the November 8th result changed the complete dynamics. The King and the Kingmaker tag of Donald Trump had been overshadowed by Ron DeSantis. However, Trump has recovered well since the new year and is now ahead of DeSantis by around 27%.

2024 presidential prediction: Here is the latest winning probability from Smarkets for the GOP nomination:

Ron DeSantis: 28.5%
Donald Trump: 55.2%
Nikki Haley: 5%
Mike Pence: 2%

Source: Smarkets

2024 Presidential Republican Primary Polls

YouGov: May 31

Ron DeSantis: 27%
Donald Trump: 52%

Morning Consult: May 28

Ron DeSantis: 22%
Donald Trump: 56%

BigVillage: May 28

Ron DeSantis: 37%
Donald Trump: 63%

Will Donald Trump win the Republican Primary election?

Donald Trump announced his 2024 Presidential candidature but he is set to face challenges from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Betting Markets: 2024 poll prediction by betting platform, Smarkets, over 65% of the respondents or participants are positive about Trump being the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Around 20% of the participants believe Ron DeSantis could be the Presidential nominee.

Who is running for president in 2024: Democratic Party

Joe Biden has already shown his interest in running for the 2024 Presidential election. He may be challenged by VP Kamla Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and others.

Democrat President Candidates Polls: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party Nominee?

Joe Biden recently expressed his desire to contest the 2024 Presidential election and he also said that he would be fortunate to face Donald Trump again in 2024.

Betting Markets: Predictions on 2024 election as per Smarkets, over 77% of the respondents or participants are positive about Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Only 4% of the participants believe Kamala Harris could be the Presidential nominee of Democrats for 2024.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Can Donald Trump win the 2024 Elections?

No American President since 1892, has returned to the White House after losing reelection, however, Trump has plenty of reasons to believe otherwise:

Lead in Primary Polls: Republican Primary polling runs favorable to Trump, it is clear that he has established sound influence over the GOP and remains to be a clear favorite choice for the party’s presidential nomination. According the last three interactive polls conducted Dec-March, Trump has gained net 15% consolidating his lead in the primary polls.

Biden’s inflationary Presidency: President Joe Biden is having a hard time in the White House, with concerns over Inflation. American Political Analyst Stirewalt described Biden as kind of a lame duck because people in his party openly question not only whether he will run again, but whether he can. Although Biden might be expecting a rerun, his republican counterpart will have a lot of issues to besiege him in debates.

Media Attention: Donald Trump seems to enjoy the media’s attention and that helped him a lot during his 2016 campaign. Although his social media presence has taken a significant blow after his accounts were banned but he still seems to be very much trending over his comments and remarks. The Former President is even referred to as a media magnet in the sense that his comments or remarks seem to dominate the newspapers and social media for the day.

Swift Fundraising Machines at his disposal: Trump is known to extensively raise funds online by selling merchandise prominently through the red “Make America Great Again” hats. These sales fueled cash inflows and provided a great database of supporters and customers who would be easily approached for further support. This not only helps capitalize on his considerable small-dollar base but also helps by establishing a massive war chest. There is no doubt that with swift fundraising machines at his disposal and remarkable support from the GOP at the grassroots and institutional level, Trump’s Reelection bid would have no shortage of funds.

Lack of Competition in Primary: According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided. A Clear GOP field makes it easier for Trump to focus his attention and Campaign resources on the presidential campaign for November 2024. Moreover, Trump himself seems confident of his nomination from the GOP, therefore making his rerun untroubled.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Trump Favorability Polls

After over two years of leaving the White House, Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines. Trump had left the office with one of the lowest approval ratings at 38% with a disapproval of 49%. And now even after a tough blow from the Jan 6th hearings, he remains the top contender for the 2024 Presidential Race.

His favorability polls showcase an average of 40% Favorability and around 57% Unfavorability. He’s been in a close contest against Biden over the past few months more than he was for the entirety of 2020. The Former president continues to post the strongest numbers in the 2024 National Primary Polls. According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided. Despite continuing trials to hold Donald Trump accountable for the capital attacks, his strong grip over the GOP still seems untroubled.

Polling Company	Date	Favorability	Unfavorability
YouGov	May 31	40%	57%
Echelon Insights	May 23	39%	58%
Quinnipiac University	May 22	40%	56%

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: What Happened in the Last Election?

On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.

The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.

Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 million. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week’s time, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%