2024 US Election Polls: Who Will be the Next US President?

November 2, 2023

2024 US Election Polls: There will be a close contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the latest US Election Presidential Poll 2024.

Biden vs Trump: Average of Last 3 Polls: Joe Biden: 45% Donald Trump: 45%

Nearly 50% of respondents to our Presidential Poll believe Trump to be the Favorite to Win the next US Election.

Who will be the Next US President Predictions? With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.

Who is the favorite to be the next US President? Crowdwisdom360 Poll

Joe Biden: 37.2% (Falling)
Donald Trump: 49.7% (Rising)
Ron DeSantis: 2.9% (Falling)

Who is More Likely to Win the Republican Nomination?

2024 Presidential Republican Primary Polls

HarrisX (Oct 30-Nov 1)	YouGov (Oct 28-31)	Quinnipiac (Oct 26-30)
*Trump: 62%*	*Trump: 56%*	*Trump: 64%*
Desantis: 12%	Desantis: 17%	Desantis: 15%
Haley: 7%	Haley: 8%	Haley: 8%
Ramaswamy: 6%	Ramaswamy: 5%	Ramaswamy: 3%
Christie 1%	Christie 1%	Christie: 3%
Scott: 1%	Scott: 1%	Scott: 3%
Hutchinson: 1%	Hutchinson: 1%	Hutchinson: 0%
Burgum: 1%	Burgum: 0%	Burgum: 1%

Donald Trump is way ahead of all the Republican Primary candidates. He is leading by over 40% over his closest challenger Ron DeSantis. Haley and Ramaswamy have been witnessing a surge in acceptance and in coming days they are likely to overtake DeSantis.

2024 US Election Polls: Observations & Insights

The 2024 Presidential election appears to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, signaling a consistent partisan divide in the country.
The strong competition anticipated from Ron DeSantis indicates an evolving Republican base that may be moving away from Trump’s influence.
Joe Biden’s approval rating is less than half (42.7%) indicating a potential challenge for his reelection campaign.
Similarly, Donald Trump’s favorability rating is less than half (41.7%), suggesting he may also struggle to become President again
Ron DeSantis has a relatively lower favorable rating (37.0%) but he also has the least unfavorable rating among the three candidates giving him an opportunity to break out in this election.
Betting platforms and prediction markets favor Biden as the front-runner for the 2024 presidential election, reflecting a perception that he has a higher likelihood of securing the Democratic Party’s nomination and potentially winning a second term.
Factors such as fundraising capabilities and media attention can significantly impact a candidate’s campaign, and Trump’s demonstrated ability to generate support and dominate news cycles could play a role in shaping the 2024 election landscape.

Will Donald Trump be Disqualified for the Presidency?

Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia said on Sunday that he believes there is a “powerful argument” to be made that former President Donald Trump can be disqualified from running in the 2024 presidential elections under the 14th Amendment.

The 14th Amendment was passed after the Civil War and prohibits anyone who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against” the United States from holding office.

The 14th Amendment Reads: “No person shall be a[n] … elector of president and vice-president, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

Summary of all 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

Indicator	Winner
Biden vs Trump Polls	Donald Trump
Biden vs Ron DeSantis Polls	Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis vs Trump Polls	Donald Trump
Allan Lichtman Prediction for 2024	Joe Biden
Prediction Market	Joe Biden
Betting Market	Joe Biden
Overall Consensus Winner	Joe Biden

2024 Presidential Candidates’ Odds: Summary of Oddschecker’s Odds

Joe Biden currently leads the odds market with odds of 7/4 (+175), implying a 36.4% chance of victory. Donald Trump closely follows as the second favorite with odds of 9/4 (+225), reflecting a 30.8% likelihood of winning.

However, Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy are witnessing surge in their acceptance in the last couple of months. Haley is placed fourth and Ramaswamy is placed as the fifth-favorite candidate in the current betting market.

Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds have evolved considerably. He now shares odds of 16/1 (+1600) with Ron DeSantis, translating to a 5.9% chance of success. This marks a significant change from his prior odds of 100/1 (+1000) just a month ago.

Despite the odds, online bettors continue to favor Donald Trump, accounting for a substantial 41% of bets placed on the market. Joe Biden has garnered 28% of the bets, Robert Kennedy Jr. 6%, and Vivek Ramaswamy 5%.

The latest 2024 Presidential Election Odds are:

Joe Biden: 7/4 (+175) – 36.40% chance
Donald Trump: 9/4 (+225) – 30.80% chance
Robert Kennedy Jr: 14/1 (+1400) – 6.70% chance
Vivek Ramaswamy: 16/1 (+1600) – 5.90% chance
Ron DeSantis: 16/1 (+1600) – 5.90% chance

2024 US Election Polls

Biden vs Trump Polls

	Biden	Trump
Average (Nov 02)	45%	45%
YouGov (Oct 31)	39%	38%
Quinnipiac (Oct 30)	47%	46%
HarrisX (Oct 30)	49%	51%

2024 US Election Polls

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are likely to compete in the 2024 Presidential election once again. However, Donald Trump is expected to face strong competition from Ron DeSantis, and the outcome of the Republican primaries in the first few months could determine the party’s nomination. Looking at the results from the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, it can be said that the upcoming elections are likely to be very close between Trump and Biden.

US Election Presidential Poll 2024: Joe Biden Approval Rating

	Approve	Disapprove
Harris Insights and Analytics (Oct 30-Nov 1)	39%	55%
YouGov (Oct 28-31)	40%	57%
Civiqs (Oct 28-31)	40%	52%

Donald Trump’s Favorability Rating

	Favorable	Unfavorable
Yougov (Oct 28-31)	43%	55%
Civiqs (Oct 28-31)	38%	56%

2024 Presidential Election: Social Media Sentiments

Biden, Mentions: 6.1M (Rising), Net Sentiment: (-51.2%, Deteriorating)
Trump, Mentions: 5.4M (Rising), Net Sentiment: (-55.6%, Significant Deterioration)
DeSantis, Mentions: 1.1M (Rising), Net Sentiment: (-58.5%, Deteriorating)

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Prediction Market

After the mid-term election, the betting platforms have shifted their goalpost, and most of them predict Biden to serve a consecutive second term in the White House. Here are the latest preferences from Smarkets for the 2024 Presidential election:

Joe Biden: 34.72% [Falling]
Donald Trump: 34.48%[Rising]
Ron DeSantis: 3.12%[Falling]

2024 Presidential Candidates: GOP Candidates

Who is running for president in 2024: Republican Party

In comparison, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis registered a massive win over Democrat Charlie Crist. Desantis has been positioning himself as a Republican candidate for the 2024 Presidential election and with the massive victory in Florida, he is almost certain to run.

Here are a few Republicans who have shown their interest in the Presidential bid:

Declared

Donald Trump
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ron DeSantis
Mike Pence
Nikki Haley
Doug Burgum
Chris Christie
Larry Elder
Tim Scott

Interest Shown

Mike Pompeo
Ted Cruz
Liz Cheney

Will Donald Trump win the Republican Primary election?

Donald Trump announced his 2024 Presidential candidature but he is set to face challenges from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Betting Markets: 2024 poll prediction by betting platform, Smarkets, over 70% of the respondents or participants are positive about Trump being the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Around 13% of the participants believe Ron DeSantis could be the Presidential nominee.

Who is running for president in 2024: Democratic Party

Declared

Joe Biden
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Marianne Williamson

Democrat President Candidates Polls: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party Nominee?

Joe Biden recently expressed his desire to contest the 2024 Presidential election and he also said that he would be fortunate to face Donald Trump again in 2024.

Betting Markets: Predictions on the 2024 election As per Smarkets, over 72.5% of the respondents or participants are positive about Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Only 4% of the participants believe Kamala Harris could be the Presidential nominee of Democrats for 2024.

US Election Presidential Poll 2024: What Happened in the Last Election?

On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.

The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.

Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 million. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week’s time, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%