Trump’s Truth Social is going public; Will it take Trump closer to the American people?

May 21, 2024

2024 US Election Polls: There will be a close contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the latest US Election Presidential Poll 2024.

Biden vs Trump: Average of Last 3 Polls: Joe Biden: 45.6% Donald Trump: 46.6%

Who will be the Next US President Predictions? With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.

2024 US Election: Observations & Insights

Biden’s April fundraising drop ($51M vs. Trump’s $76M) suggests concerns about campaign momentum, despite his larger war chest ($84M vs. $49M). Trump’s surge, amid legal battles, underscores his strong base and potential to sway undecided voters. With both candidates tied nationally and Trump leading in battleground states, effective fundraising becomes pivotal. Voter perception of Trump’s financial gains, particularly on economic issues where he outperforms Biden, could heavily influence the election outcome. These dynamics set the stage for a fiercely competitive race, with fundraising strategies crucial for both campaigns.
Recent polls indicate that Trump leads in several crucial battleground states, including Pennsylvania (+3), Arizona (+7), Michigan (+7), Georgia (+10), and Nevada (+12), while Biden is ahead in Wisconsin (+2). Trump’s reported support among Black voters stands at 20%, potentially the highest since the civil rights era. Nearly 70% of voters express a desire for major changes in political and economic systems. While a majority (64%) support abortion rights, nearly 20% blame Biden for the fall of Roe v. Wade. Undecided voters, constituting a significant portion, remain pivotal, with both campaigns seeking to sway them amidst economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the current state of politics and the economy.
President Joe Biden unveiled a new student loan debt relief plan aimed at providing relief to over 30 million borrowers. The plan includes measures such as canceling up to $20,000 in interest for borrowers, forgiving debt for those in low-value college programs, and providing relief for borrowers facing financial hardship. This plan represents a focused effort to address concerns about student debt, particularly among younger voters, ahead of the upcoming election rematch with Donald Trump.
In key swing states, recent polling shows Trump leading Biden by 6 points (49% to 43%), reversing Biden’s earlier gains. Abortion is a central issue, with over half seeing it as crucial to their vote. There’s overwhelming support (77%) for a billionaire’s tax to address Social Security shortfalls. Biden is seen as more trustworthy than Trump on Social Security matters, leading 45% to 39%. These findings highlight economic concerns, the importance of abortion rights, and backing for Social Security reform among swing-state voters.
In the 2024 presidential race, President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump by 1 percentage point, with 44% support compared to Trump’s 43%. Biden’s recent positive buzz (34% positive, 36% negative) follows the release of the student debt relief plan and endorsements from members of the Kennedy family. However, both candidates face negative perceptions. Notably, 45% of voters consider the Israeli-Palestinian conflict very important, up from 42% last week, despite its consistently negative media coverage.
In the Ohio GOP primary, 20-30% resisted supporting Trump for 2024, with nearly half of Haley supporters favoring Biden. Criticism of Trump includes doubts about temperament and fitness for office. 18% wouldn’t support Trump in November, with 10% preferring Biden. Matt Dolan, another Republican candidate in the race, performs better among those opposing deportation and abortion. Trump and Haley supporters differ significantly on immigration and abortion.
Former President Donald Trump is anticipated to target President Joe Biden’s border policies during his tours of pivotal swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan. Recent polling data reveals Trump’s lead in six out of seven crucial battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Biden only ahead in Wisconsin. Trump’s emphasis on immigration issues, alongside his advantage in swing states, could profoundly influence the trajectory of the 2024 election.

Summary of all 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

Indicator	Winner
Biden vs Trump Polls	Donald Trump
Allan Lichtman Prediction for 2024	Joe Biden
Betting Market	Donald Trump
Overall Consensus Winner	Donald Trump

2024 US Election Polls

Biden vs Trump Polls

	Biden	Trump
*Average (May 21st, 2024)*	*45.6%*	*46.6%*
The Economist (May 21st)	44%	45%
Harvard-Harris (May 15th-16th)	47%	53%
Echleon Insights (May 13th-16th)	46%	49%

Democratic vs Republican Polls

	Democratic	Republican
*Average (May 21st, 2024)*	*44.6%*	*45.6%*
Echleon Insights (May 13th-16th)	45%	49%
McLaughlin & Associates (May 9th-15th)	44%	46%
YouGov (May 12th-14th)	45%	42%

Latest 2024 US Election News

In the upcoming US presidential election, polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump, polling at 39-45%, and Joe Biden, polling at 39-44%. Despite facing legal challenges, Trump remains a strong competitor, while Biden deals with policy issues. The November 5th election marks an important rematch, reflecting public opinion. Key dates include the July/August conventions, September’s first debate, and November 5th. Biden, at 81, focuses on international diplomacy, while Trump, at 77, emphasizes cultural issues.
Former President Trump resumes campaigning in battleground states, holding events in Wisconsin and Michigan amid his New York hush money trial. Poll averages indicate Trump leads in Michigan by 4 percentage points and in Wisconsin by 3 percentage points. He’s expected to target President Biden on inflation, immigration, and his legal issues, while Democrats plan to counter with a focus on abortion in Florida. Despite trial commitments, Trump expresses frustration at being kept off the campaign trail, aiming for a second term in a rematch with Biden in November.
Supporters of Joe Biden and Donald Trump display stark differences in their news consumption habits, influencing their candidate preferences. Biden attracts support from traditional news consumers, while Trump gains favor among those who avoid political news. According to a survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, 54% prefer traditional news sources, providing Biden with an 11-point lead in this demographic. Conversely, Trump leads among the 40% who prefer digital media or opt out of political news altogether. This disparity underscores the significant impact of media consumption on political preferences.
In the Ohio Republican primary, many people didn’t fully support Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 presidency. About one-fifth of voters weren’t happy with him being the nominee. Also, 22% thought he didn’t have the right temperament for the job, and 28% believed he wouldn’t be suitable if convicted of a crime. Interestingly, 18% of voters said they wouldn’t back Trump in the November election. Among supporters of Nikki Haley, a large majority, 88%, weren’t satisfied with Trump being the nominee. Nearly half of them, 47%, preferred Joe Biden for the general election. These numbers show there’s some division within the Republican Party about Trump’s candidacy.
Young Latino voters in key swing states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, have the potential to significantly influence the 2024 presidential election. However, interviews with nearly two dozen young Latino students reveal a lack of motivation to support candidates or participate in voting among them. These students express concerns about various issues such as the conflict in Gaza involving Israel, the cost of living, immigration, and abortion. Despite relying on platforms like TikTok for news, many of them express ambivalence towards voting. Mobilizing these young Latino voters, who typically lean Democratic, poses a challenge due to their perception that candidates are unable to address their concerns and their overall disillusionment with the political process.
Allan Lichtman, in an interview with The Guardian, highlighted his predictive method, which relies on 13 “keys” to forecast election outcomes. He pointed out that Biden has already secured two keys, including being the incumbent president and facing no significant competition within the Democratic Party during the primaries. Lichtman emphasized the importance of Biden’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in securing his victory over former President Trump in 2020. Despite recent polls showing Biden and Trump tied at around 41.3%, Lichtman’s method focuses on broader factors beyond simple popularity figures to predict election outcomes.

2024 Presidential Election Odds

Bet 365: Donald Trump: 52.3%, Joe Biden: +36.3%
Oddschecker: Donald Trump: +132, Joe Biden: +140
Covers: Donald Trump: +100, Joe Biden: +225

Who is the favorite to be the next US President? Crowdwisdom360 Poll

Joe Biden: 37.2% (Falling)
Donald Trump: 49.7% (Rising)

Joe Biden Favorability Rating

	Approve	Disapprove
Morning Consult (May 17th-19th)	44%	53%
Harris Poll (May 15th-16th)	43%	53%
Echleon Insights (May 13th-16th)	42%	56%

Donald Trump’s Favorability Rating

	Favorable	Unfavorable
Morning Consult (May 17th-19th)	44%	54%
Harris Poll (May 15th-16th)	50%	47%
Echleon Insights (May 13th-16th)	44%	53%

2024 Presidential Election Social Media Sentiments

Biden, Mentions: 6.1M (Rising), Net Sentiment: (-51.2%, Deteriorating)
Trump, Mentions: 5.4M (Rising), Net Sentiment: (-55.6%, Significant Deterioration)

2024 Presidential Election Prediction Market

After the mid-term election, the betting platforms have shifted their goalpost, and most of them predict Biden to serve a consecutive second term in the White House. Here are the latest preferences from Smarkets for the 2024 Presidential election:

Joe Biden: 38.4% [Rising]
Donald Trump: 52.0%[Rising]
Nikki Haley: 0.83% [Constant]

What Happened in the Last Election?

On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.

The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.

Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 million. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%