Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Game over for Justin Trudeau?

November 14, 2023

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada: The Conservative Party is ahead in the latest polls.

2025 Canada Election; Average: LPC: 24.6%, CPC: 40%, NDP: 18.6%

Canada Federal Polls (Seats): LPC: 79, CPC: 205, BQ: 32, NDP: 20

Should Justin Trudeau Resign? Over 90% of the respondents believe that Trudeau should resign.

2025 Canadian Election: Justin Trudeau scraped through the 2021 Federal Election by winning 160 out of 338 seats. This was an improvement of 5 seats despite a 0.5% loss in vote share. The Liberals had a highly efficient vote distribution winning 4.9 seats for every 1% of votes won. The Conservatives won 3.5 seats for every 1% of votes won. The NDP continued to be highly inefficient in Federal Elections winning just 1.4 seats for every 1% of votes won.

Canada Federal Polls: Who is Ahead?

Polls: CPC
Google Search: CPC
Net Social Media Sentiment: LPC

Should Justin Trudeau Resign?

Some Important Surveys

Leger Survey Of Canada Housing Crisis: Leger carried out a survey about the rising cost of housing and 40% of respondents blamed the federal government, 32% blamed the provincial government, 22% were unsure and 6% blamed their municipal government.
Nanos Research Poll on Growing Inflation: The latest survey conducted by Nanos Research found that 30% Canadians blamed government spending, 22% held businesses responsible, and only 10% blamed Bank of Canada for rising inflation in Canada.
Nanos Research for CTV News Channel’s Power Play with Vassy Kapelos shows that 22% of Canadians trust the opposition Pierre Poilievre, 22% trust Jagmeet Singh, only 15% had trust in Trudeau and rest 22% had faith in none of the federal parties.
Angus Reid poll 78% of Canadians polled suggest parents should be informed by schools if their child wants to change their name or pronoun while 14% feel parents should have no role, and 8% remain unsure.
Leger shows that 47% of Canadians are living paycheck to paycheck where the majority are aged between 35-54 followed by those in the age group 18-35.
According to a recent national survey conducted by Abacus Data, 56% of Canadians, including former Liberal supporters, believe that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should resign rather than lead his party in the upcoming federal election. Only 27% had trust in Trudeau, while 17% were unsure.

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Observations and Insights

What are the top 5 issues?
- Rising Cost of Living
- Housing affordability and accessibility
- Healthcare
- Economy
- Climate change and the environment
81 per cent of lower-income, 50 per cent of middle-income and 35 per cent of high-income earners in Canada are impacted by inflation and rising cost of living.
According to the Point2Homes report, 75 per cent of renters residing in 36 of the cities are unable to afford a starter home under this definition. Canadian starter homes now cost more than $500,000, and in three cities, more than $700,000.
According to a new study from Angus Reid Institute, in association with Canadian Medical Association, 68% Canadians believe health care has worsened in the country over the last decade. Staff shortages among key healthcare work forces, surgery backlogs, lack of adequate family doctors, are issues affecting them.
Canadian economy is on a record low with a drop in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing, lack of investment in machinery and goods, poor consumption of non-durable goods like gas and food, weakening domestic economy and a depreciating currency. Canada’s economic outlook is bleak, with forecasts predicting stagnant growth and a steady inflation rate of 3% in 2024.
Canada has warmed by more than 1.3°C since 1948, a rate of warming that is about twice the global average. The Climate Action Tracker rates Canada’s climate target, policies and climate finance as “Highly Insufficient” overall indicating that Canada’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
62% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction
49% disapprove the federal government while only 33% approve.

(Voteshare%)	CPC	LPC	NDP
*Average (Oct 27)*	40	24.6	18.6
Nanos Research	40	22	20
Mainstreet Research	41	25.8	18.2
Abacus Data	39	26	18

Canada Federal Polls: Seat Projection

338Canada

CPC: 205 seats
LPC: 27 seats
NDP: 18 seats
BQ: 32 seats
GPC: 2 Seats

Canada Election Polls Latest Developments

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been holding an ‘Axe the Tax’ rally as against the Liberal MP decision to Quadruple the Carbon Tax.
In response to the rally and to calm resenting Atlantic and rural MPs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to double the pollution price rebate rural top-up rate, and implement a 3 year pause to the federal carbon price on deliveries of heating oil in all jurisdictions where the federal fuel charge has been in effect.
The Climate Action Incentive Payment rural top-up rate will be increased from 10 to 20 per cent of the baseline amount, starting in April 2024. According to Trudeau, It is a move to recognize the higher energy costs rural residents are facing.
Further a “new energy affordability package,” will be announced by Trudeau to make it easier for Canadians to switch to an electric heat pump to heat their homes, starting first in Atlantic Canada.
This pilot project will see an upfront payment of $250 for low-to-medium-income households who heat their homes with oil. Also includes plans to enhance a program that provides Canadian households funding to help make the transition from heating oil to more efficient and environmentally-friendly electric heat pumps.
Trudeau said the Liberals are increasing the highest amount of funding towards the purchase and installation of a heat pump from $10,000 to $15,000. They plan to do this by adding up to $5,000 in “grant funding to match provincial and territorial contributions,”
After NDP leader Jagmeet Singh sent a letter to Prime Minister Trudeau asking for Canada to call for a ceasefire to the war that started after the Hamas, Trudeau met with opposition party representatives on the Israel-Hamas war and deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza. He called for “humanitarian pauses”, with the hope of permitting medical supplies and aid to enter Gaza, and allowing Canadians and other foreign nationals to get out of the situation.
Liberal and Conservative MPs have defeated the proposal of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie to change the Standing Orders of the House of Commons, that sought to instill democratic controls on the prime minister’s powers.

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Google Search Share

LPC- 20% (2021: 12%)
CPC- 25.6% (2021: 25%)
NDP- 54.5% (2021: 63%)

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Social Media Sentiment

LPC- (-36.4%)
CPC- (-51.7%)
NDP- (-51.8%)

Read about Justin Trudeau Approval Rating 2023

Read about Pierre Poilievre Approval Rating 2023

Latest Prime Minister Rating –

According to the latest Nanos Research, as many as 34% of Canadians prefer Poilievre as the next Prime Minister of Canada as against 22.7% who favour Justin Trudeau, This indicates that Poilievre leads by 11.4% as against Trudeau.
The Leger Research of late October, 2023 indicates that only 30% of Canadians approve of the working of the Federal government under the leadership of Trudeau while as much as 63% disapprove of the working of the Trudeau government.
According to the last Ipsos Poll, almost 60% of Canadians believe that it is time for Trudeau to step aside as a leader and that Poilievre has the best plans for the healthcare, economy and housing for Canadians.
However, opinions varied when it came to the worst Prime Minister, with a significant 30 percent selecting the incumbent, Justin Trudeau. Particularly in Alberta, the dissatisfaction was more pronounced, with 45 percent of respondents considering him the worst PM.

Canada Election Polls: Summary of recent elections

Political Polls Canada 2023: Two major provincial elections were completed after that, here is how each of the leading parties performed in the Federal and Provincial election

Liberal Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

Quebec
- Provincial 2018: 24.8% -> Federal 2021: 33.6% -> Provincial 2022: 14.4%
Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 19.6% ->Federal 2021: 39.3% -> Provincial 2022: 23.9%

Conservative Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

Quebec
- Provincial 2018: 1.5% -> Federal 2021: 18.6% -> Provincial 2022: 12.9%

Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 40.5% ->Federal 2021: 34.9% -> Provincial 2022: 40.8%

New Democratic Party Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 33.6% ->Federal 2021: 9.8% -> Provincial 2022: 23.7%

Canada Federal Election Polls: The Conservatives have held ground in Ontario and have been efficient in Quebec. NDP has lost ground in Ontario to the Liberals while the Liberals had a mixed bag with gains in Ontario offset by losses in Quebec.

The new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will attempt to be more efficient in Ontario where Doug Ford has consistently delivered 40% of the votes. Trudeau has a huge problem on his hands with a weak succession of leaders as could be seen in both Quebec and Ontario.

Canada Federal Election Poll Tracker: Canada Demography

Total Population: As per the latest data, the total population of Canada is around 38 million. Canada is the 38th largest country in the world in terms of population. Canada has a more female population than a male population. There are 98.58 males per 100 females.

Religious Composition of Canada: Canada has a vibrant population. The major religions followed in Canada are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Sikhism. Of these, 67% of Canadians are Christian, 24% have no religion, and 3.2% are Muslim. Sikhs in Canada form around 1.4% of the total population while Hindus are around 1.5%.

Major Races of Canada: Ethnic Group forms 32.3% of the Canadian population, English are around 18.%, Scottish (13.9%), French (13.6%), Irish (13.4%), German (9.6%), and Chinese (5.1%).

Understanding Canada Legislative (Parliament Election)

The members of the lower house of the Parliament or the House of Commons are elected by the citizens directly. There are currently 338 seats in the House of Commons.

A government formed by the party or the coalition of parties holding most seats in the House of Commons is known as a majority government.

When the party in power holds more seats than any other party but falls short of a clear majority in the House, the government is referred to as a minority government. Minority governments must rely on the support of members belonging to other political parties to govern.