Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada: The Conservative Party is ahead in the polls in terms of vote share but the Liberals could win more seats.

2025 Canada Election; Average: LPC- 30.3%, CPC- 32.3% NDP- 20.3%

Canada Federal Polls (Seats): LPC: 131, CPC: 143 BQ: 32 NDP: 29

2025 Canadian Election: Justin Trudeau scraped through the 2021 Federal Election by winning 160 out of 338 seats. This was an improvement of 5 seats despite a 0.5% loss in vote share. The Liberals had a highly efficient vote distribution winning 4.9 seats for every 1% of votes won. The Conservatives won 3.5 seats for every 1% of votes won. The NDP continued to be highly inefficient in Federal Elections winning just 1.4 seats for every 1% of votes won.

Canada Federal Polls: Who is Ahead?

Polls (Voteshare)CPC
Google SearchNDP
Net SentimentNDP

Latest From the Canadian Election

Highlights of Justin Trudeau’s Speech at the Liberal Convention

The Canadian Prime Minister began his speech by welcoming everyone present at the convention, particularly the first-timers. Trudeau appreciated the efforts of every attendee for their hard work and enthusiasm towards the Liberal movement. Trudeau also talked about his promise ten years ago that he would work every day to make Canada a better place for future generations.

Trudeau emphasized that Canadians chose hope over fear and anger, hard work over cynicism. Trudeau talked about investing in Canadians in a strategic way, such as creating the Canada child benefit, renegotiating NAFTA, and investing in clean steel, to secure jobs for workers.

Trudeau mentioned Volkswagen building their first North American Giga factory in Saint Thomas, Ontario, which will create thousands of jobs. Trudeau further stated that Canada’s democratic values make it reliable and valuable, and it cares about equality, reconciliation, and justice.

In the later part of his speech, Trudeau criticized the Conservative politicians for not connecting the dots and not understanding that investing in Canadians is not a waste of money. Trudeau further mentioned that women’s participation in the economy has reached an all-time high, and affordable child care is not a “woke” policy but an economic policy.

Lastly, he said that although some may clip his words out of context, he understands that too many Canadians are still struggling, and the government will work to make their lives better.

Pierre Poilievre at the ‘Bring It Home Rally

Pierre Poilievre addressed a group of people and thanked them for their presence. He identified the crowd as Common Sense Conservatives and expressed confidence that they will help make Common Sense common again. Poilievre criticized Justin Trudeau’s leadership and cited issues of rising costs, decreased pay, housing, disorder, crime, and division.

Pierre Poilievre proposed that building on the foundations of Freedom can restore Canada’s promise. He also criticizes the government’s printing of 400 billion dollars and the resulting increase in the money supply, which has led to higher prices for goods.

Pierre Poilievre advocated for changes in government spending and taxation policies to address what he sees as economic issues facing working people in Canada. He proposed a dollar-for-dollar law requiring government spending to be offset by savings, capping government spending, and reducing waste in government spending on high-priced consultants.

He also advocated for the elimination of the carbon tax, lowering taxes to reward hard work, bringing jobs and food production back to Canada, and repealing anti-energy laws to build Canadian pipelines. He suggested these changes will lower costs for taxpayers and farmers, increase the purchasing power of working people, and promote domestic energy independence.

Pierre Poilievre discussed common-sense solutions to the housing crisis and rising crime rates in Canada. He argued that government spending and bureaucracy have driven up housing costs and proposed linking federal funding to the number of houses built.

He also suggested selling off unused government buildings for housing and building apartment complexes around transit stations. Regarding crime, he criticized the government’s policy of early parole for violent offenders and proposes putting them in jail instead. He also supported the rights of law-abiding firearm owners and suggested using funds to reinforce borders and keep illegal guns out. Overall, he advocated for common-sense solutions to these issues.

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Observations and Insights

  1. Canada Federal Polls: What are the top 3 issues?
    • Cost of Living
    • Healthcare
    • Economy
  2. Three in five (59%) Canadians believe the rising cost of living to be a top issue facing the country. Half (48%) say the same about health care. Other concerns – are housing affordability (27%), climate change (23%), and the economy more broadly (19%).
  3. A plurality in Metro Vancouver, Montreal and the 416 and 905 area codes of Toronto say they would vote Liberal if an election were held tomorrow. However, in the latter most, the gap between the Liberals and the CPC is not as large as the other major cities.
  4. 30% believe the country is headed in the right direction, at or near the lowest point for several years.
  5. The federal government’s approval rating hasn’t changed much either. 33% approve while 49% disapprove.

Opinion Polls Canada: Impressions of the party leaders (Abacus Data Poll)

  • Justin Trudeau: 30% positive (-1) vs. 49% negative (-2) = -19 net
  • Pierre Poilievre: 29% positive (-2) vs. 36% negative (NC) = -7 net

Latest Federal Election Breaking: Justin Trudeau’s Ratings

Justin Trudeau’s approval ratings continue to drop amidst allegations of Chinese meddling in the Federal Elections.

PM Justin Trudeau continues to face criticism of the government’s response to allegations of election interference by the Chinese government. There have been many demands for a public inquiry into the issue, but Trudeau has not nudged before them. Instead, he plans to appoint a dedicated rapporteur to investigate the issue and asked the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians and the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency to review the allegations.

Federal Opinion Polls: As the controversy unwraps itself, its approval ratings of Trudeau have declined since December. According to the latest Angus Reid Polls, fewer than two-in-five (37%) approve of the prime minister’s performance, a decline of six points in three months. Three in five (57%) disapprove of Trudeau, while six percent remained neutral.

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Vote Share Forecast

Average (June 4th)30.3%32.3%20.3%
Leger (May 29th)33%31%19%
Nanos Research (May 26th)28%33%24%
Abacus Polls (May 12th)30%33%18%

Canada Federal Polls: Latest Survey Findings and Observation

  • The Conservative Party would receive 33% of the vote if an election were held at the time of the survey, indicating a consistent level of support. The Liberal Party would receive 30% of the vote, experiencing a slight decrease of 1%, while the NDP is in third place with 18%, also down 1%.
  • Regionally, the Conservatives are leading in British Columbia and the Prairies, while remaining competitive with the Liberals in Ontario. The Liberals are statistically tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and the Bloc Québécois (BQ) in Quebec, and they are ahead of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada.
  • The NDP finds stronger support in regions west of Ontario, suggesting a regional variation in their appeal.
  • Age demographics show that the Liberals are leading among those under 30, trailing the Conservatives by 12% among those aged 30 to 44, and by 8% among those aged 45 to 59. Among those aged 60 and above, the Conservatives and Liberals are tied, indicating a balanced support base.
  • There is a notable gender gap in vote intentions, with the Conservatives leading by 10% among men and the Liberals leading by 45% among women. The NDP enjoys higher support among women, with a 10-point difference compared to men.
  • Overall, the tracking of voting patterns over recent months shows little significant change. The Conservatives maintain a slight national advantage, with the only notable difference being in British Columbia, where the Conservatives have gained ground while the Liberals appear to have lost support. Vote choice seems relatively stable at the moment.

Canada Federal Polls: Seat Projection


  • LPC: 131 seats
  • CPC: 143 seats
  • NDP: 30 seats
  • BQ: 32 seats
  • GPC: 2 seats

None of the political parties will be able to form the Government on their own as per the latest seat projection. The Liberal Party is set to emerge as the single largest party.

The current Canadian government is a minority government. In 2021 Liberal Party won 160 seats. The NDP which won 25 seats has been supporting the minority Liberal government.

The latest poll shows that the Liberal Party is set to lose around 20 seats from their 2021 tally while the Conservative Party will be able to add around 20 seats. Last time they won 119 seats.

The 2021 Canada election result was almost in sync with the opinion poll numbers.

Understanding Canada Legislative (Parliament Election)

The members of the lower house of the Parliament or the House of Commons are elected by the citizens directly. There are currently 338 seats in the House of Commons.

A government formed by the party or the coalition of parties holding most seats in the House of Commons is known as a majority government.

When the party in power holds more seats than any other party but falls short of a clear majority in the House, the government is referred to as a minority government. Minority governments must rely on the support of members belonging to other political parties to govern.

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Google Search Share

  • LPC- 8%
  • CPC- 17%
  • NDP- 75%

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Social Media Sentiment

  • LPC- (-46%)
  • CPC – (-63%)
  • NDP- (-35%)

Canada Election Polls: Summary of recent elections

Political Polls Canada 2023: Two major provincial elections were completed after that, here is how each of the leading parties performed in the Federal and Provincial election

Liberal Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

  • Quebec
    • Provincial 2018: 24.8% -> Federal 2021: 33.6% -> Provincial 2022: 14.4%
  • Ontario
    • Provincial 2018: 19.6% ->Federal 2021: 39.3% -> Provincial 2022: 23.9%

Conservative Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

  • Quebec
    • Provincial 2018: 1.5% -> Federal 2021: 18.6% -> Provincial 2022: 12.9%
  • Ontario
    • Provincial 2018: 40.5% ->Federal 2021: 34.9% -> Provincial 2022: 40.8%

New Democratic Party Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

  • Ontario
    • Provincial 2018: 33.6% ->Federal 2021: 9.8% -> Provincial 2022: 23.7%

Canada Federal Election Polls: The Conservatives have held ground in Ontario and have been efficient in Quebec. NDP has lost ground in Ontario to the Liberals while the Liberals had a mixed bag with gains in Ontario offset by losses in Quebec.

The new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will attempt to be more efficient in Ontario where Doug Ford has consistently delivered 40% of the votes. Trudeau has a huge problem on his hands with a weak succession of leaders as could be seen in both Quebec and Ontario.

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Summary

  • Both the CPC and LPC have made some headway but not by a huge margin
  • NDP appears to have lost momentum in Ontario
  • CPC has growth opportunities in Ontario while Liberals have serious leadership issues that need resolution.

What Happened in the Last Canadian Federal Election?

On September 20, 2021, Canada voted to elect the members to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The election was called after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the Governor to dissolve the parliament and call for a snap election.

The election result was not what Justin Trudeau had expected added to it, the result was neither in favor of the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party was contesting under the leadership of Erin O’Toole.

Despite the ruling Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau facing a huge anti-incumbency, the Conservative Party failed to dislodge Trudeau’s government.

The Liberals under Justin Trudeau were able to win 160 seats, 5 seats more than what it had won in the last election. The Conservative Party won 119 seats similar to the last election.

Trudeau’s Liberals failed to touch the majority mark of 170 seats, therefore went on to form a minority government. Trudeau’s government is supported by Jagmeet Singh’s NDP which has 25 seats in the Parliament.

Canada Federal Election Poll Tracker: Canada Demography

Total Population: As per the latest data, the total population of Canada is around 38 million. Canada is the 38th largest country in the world in terms of population. Canada has a more female population than a male population. There are 98.58 males per 100 females.

Religious Composition of Canada: Canada has a vibrant population. The major religions followed in Canada are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Sikhism. Of these, 67% of Canadians are Christian, 24% have no religion, and 3.2% are Muslim. Sikhs in Canada form around 1.4% of the total population while Hindus are around 1.5%.

Major Races of Canada: Ethnic Group forms 32.3% of the Canadian population, English are around 18.%, Scottish (13.9%), French (13.6%), Irish (13.4%), German (9.6%) and Chinese (5.1%).

Muskan Arora

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