Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Game over for Justin Trudeau?
Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada: The Conservative Party is ahead in the latest polls.
2025 Canada Election; Average: LPC: 24%, CPC: 43.4%, NDP: 16%
Canada Federal Polls (Seats): Average: LPC: 64, CPC: 213, BQ: 39, NDP: 25
Should Justin Trudeau Resign? Over 90% of the respondents believe that Trudeau should resign.
2025 Canadian Election: Justin Trudeau scraped through the 2021 Federal Election by winning 160 out of 338 seats. This was an improvement of 5 seats despite a 0.5% loss in vote share. The Liberals had a highly efficient vote distribution winning 4.9 seats for every 1% of votes won. The Conservatives won 3.5 seats for every 1% of votes won. The NDP continued to be highly inefficient in Federal Elections winning just 1.4 seats for every 1% of votes won.
Canada Federal Polls: Who is Ahead?
- Polls: CPC
- Google Search: CPC
- Net Social Media Sentiment: LPC
Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Observations and Insights
- What are the top 5 issues?
- Rising Cost of Living
- Housing affordability and accessibility
- Healthcare
- Economy
- Climate change and the environment
- The most recent Nanos poll tracking shows that the Conservatives are leading over the Liberals by a substantial 12-point margin. Moreover, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) is seeing a surge in support, hitting a 10-year high. The data comes from random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers, collected using a four-week rolling average approach. These results indicate changes in Canada’s political landscape, which could affect the upcoming elections.
- The Ipsos poll conducted from March 15th to 18th, 2024, reveals an 18-point lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals. This lead has grown by 2 points in the last four months. Across regions, except Quebec, where the Bloc leads, the Conservatives maintain dominance. In key demographics, including men (25-point lead), women (11-point lead), and age groups 35+ (21-point lead) and 18-34 (10-point lead), the Conservatives lead over the Liberals persists.
- 81 percent of lower-income, 50 percent of middle-income, and 35 percent of high-income earners in Canada are impacted by inflation and rising cost of living.
- According to the Point2Homes report, 75 percent of renters residing in 36 of the cities are unable to afford a starter home under this definition. Canadian starter homes now cost more than $500,000, and in three cities, more than $700,000.
- According to a study by Angus Reid Institute, in association with the Canadian Medical Association, 68% of Canadians believe health care has worsened in the country over the last decade. Staff shortages among key healthcare workforces, surgery backlogs, and lack of adequate family doctors, are issues affecting them.
- 49% of Canadians disapprove of the federal government and 62% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the wrong direction
- Overall, 50% of Canadians hold a pessimistic outlook towards the future of the country under the present leadership.
Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Vote Share Forecast
| (Voteshare%) | CPC | LPC | NDP |
| Average (May 15th, 2024) | 43.4% | 24% | 16% |
| 338 Canada (May 12th) | 44% | 24% | 17% |
| Nanos Research (May 10th) | 43.2% | 22.8% | 16% |
| Mainstreet Research (April 30th) | 43.2% | 25.4% | 15% |
| 2021 Result | 33.7% | 32.6% | +17.8% |
Should Justin Trudeau Resign?
Canada Federal Polls: Seat Projection
| (Seat Projection) | CPC | LPC | BQ | NDP | GPC |
| Average (May 15th, 2024) | 213 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 2 |
| 338 Canada (May 12th) | 220 | 64 | 38 | 19 | 2 |
| Nanos Research (May 3rd) | 200 | 71 | 42 | 28 | 2 |
| Abacus Data (April 22nd) | 218 | 58 | 38 | 27 | 2 |
Party-Wise seat Projection in Provincial : Nanos Research (May 3rd)
| (Seat Projection) | LPC | CPC | BQ | NDP | GPC |
| Atlantic-Canada | 7 | 25 | – | 0 | 0 |
| Quebec | 25 | 10 | 42 | 1 | 0 |
| Ontario | 28 | 76 | – | 17 | 1 |
| Central Prairies | 7 | 19 | – | 2 | 0 |
| Alberta | 3 | 33 | – | 1 | 0 |
| British Columbia | 1 | 36 | – | 5 | 1 |
| The Territories | 0 | 1 | – | 2 | 0 |
Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Google Search Share
- LPC- 14.8% (2021: 12%)
- CPC- 34.6% (2021: 25%)
- NDP- 50.5% (2021: 63%)
Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Social Media Sentiment
- LPC- (-36.4%)
- CPC- (-51.7%)
- NDP- (-51.8%)
Read about Justin Trudeau Approval Rating 2023
Canada Election Polls Latest Developments
- The public opinion survey on the federal budget, conducted among 2,132 adult Canadians, highlights varying levels of support for its measures. Six out of ten Canadians are aware of the budget, with only 39% of those under 30 having knowledge about it. While some initiatives like increasing housing stock and the school meals program enjoy broad support, concerns exist over deficit size and capital gains taxes. Bruce Anderson and Alex Kohut both emphasize the need for innovative communication strategies to engage young Canadians effectively.
- In a recent poll by Leger, Canadians showed mixed reactions to the federal budget. Nearly half held a negative view, while only 21% had a positive opinion, with one-third undecided. However, there is strong support (65%) for the plan to invest $8.5 billion in housing. People over 55 mostly supported the capital gains tax changes, with 60% in favor, while those aged 18-35 showed less support for increased defense spending, with only 45% approval. Overall, the poll reflects varied opinions on the budget’s measures and fiscal priorities among Canadians.
- The Liberal government is targeting Millennial and Gen Z voters through measures in the federal budget, recognizing their potential to influence electoral outcomes. Many ridings with high concentrations of younger voters were narrowly won by Liberals in the last election. The budget addresses issues such as housing affordability, with 21 references to these demographics. However, challenges remain as younger voter turnout has declined, and shifting political attitudes among Millennials and Gen Zs present uncertainties for future elections.
- Canada’s government is leveraging the power of social media influencers to engage younger demographics. Figures like Steph & Den (750,000 followers) are now participating in events like federal budget lockups, signaling a shift towards digital outreach. With influencers like Danica Nelson (24,000 followers) involved, the government aims to bridge the gap between politics and platforms like Instagram and TikTok. This strategic move acknowledges the power of social media in shaping political discourse and signifies a shift towards more direct and engaging communication methods.
- In a recent Nanos survey, Canadians’ dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau’s government has peaked, with 62% feeling either angry or disappointed. Key concerns driving this opposition include inflation, healthcare, climate change, housing affordability, and taxes. Despite promises of increased spending, doubts linger, with 40% favoring the Conservative Party over the Liberals at 23.6%. This poses a significant challenge for Trudeau in maintaining voter support as the next federal election approaches.
- The Canadian government’s inquiry into foreign interference in upcoming elections, which includes diaspora communities, signals worries about outside influence, especially from countries like China, India, and Russia. The historical backdrop, including allegations of China’s interference in the 2021 election. With diaspora communities comprising nearly 21.9% of Canada’s population and maintaining ties to their home countries, they are susceptible to manipulation. Challenges like disinformation and cyberattacks further complicate efforts to protect democracy. Ultimately, the inquiry emphasizes the need to restore public trust in future electoral processes.
Read about Pierre Poilievre Approval Rating 2023
Latest Prime Minister Rating
- According to the latest Nanos Research, as many as 33% of Canadians prefer Poilievre as the next Prime Minister of Canada as against 21.4% who favor Justin Trudeau, This indicates that Poilievre leads by 11.6% as against Trudeau.
- Abacus Data of 17th December, 2023 indicates that only a mere 33% of Canadians approve of the working of the Federal government under the leadership of Trudeau while as high as 61% disapprove of the working of the Trudeau government.
- However, opinions varied when it came to the worst Prime Minister, with a significant 30 percent selecting the incumbent, Justin Trudeau. Particularly in Alberta, the dissatisfaction was more pronounced, with 45 percent of respondents considering him the worst PM.
Canada Election Polls: Summary of recent elections
Political Polls Canada 2023: Two major provincial elections were completed after that, here is how each of the leading parties performed in the Federal and Provincial election
Liberal Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections
- Quebec
- Provincial 2018: 24.8% -> Federal 2021: 33.6% -> Provincial 2022: 14.4%
- Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 19.6% ->Federal 2021: 39.3% -> Provincial 2022: 23.9%
Conservative Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections
- Quebec
- Provincial 2018: 1.5% -> Federal 2021: 18.6% -> Provincial 2022: 12.9%
- Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 40.5% ->Federal 2021: 34.9% -> Provincial 2022: 40.8%
New Democratic Party Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections
- Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 33.6% ->Federal 2021: 9.8% -> Provincial 2022: 23.7%
Canada Federal Election Polls: The Conservatives have held ground in Ontario and have been efficient in Quebec. NDP has lost ground in Ontario to the Liberals while the Liberals had a mixed bag with gains in Ontario offset by losses in Quebec.
The new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will attempt to be more efficient in Ontario where Doug Ford has consistently delivered 40% of the votes. Trudeau has a huge problem on his hands with a weak succession of leaders as could be seen in both Quebec and Ontario.
Canada Federal Election Poll Tracker: Canada Demography
Total Population: As per the latest data, the total population of Canada is around 38 million. Canada is the 38th largest country in the world in terms of population. Canada has a more female population than a male population. There are 98.58 males per 100 females.
Religious Composition of Canada: Canada has a vibrant population. The major religions followed in Canada are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Sikhism. Of these, 67% of Canadians are Christian, 24% have no religion, and 3.2% are Muslim. Sikhs in Canada form around 1.4% of the total population while Hindus are around 1.5%.
Major Races of Canada: Ethnic Group forms 32.3% of the Canadian population, English are around 18.%, Scottish (13.9%), French (13.6%), Irish (13.4%), German (9.6%), and Chinese (5.1%).
Understanding Canada Legislative (Parliament Election)
The members of the lower house of the Parliament or the House of Commons are elected by the citizens directly. There are currently 338 seats in the House of Commons.
A government formed by the party or the coalition of parties holding most seats in the House of Commons is known as a majority government.
When the party in power holds more seats than any other party but falls short of a clear majority in the House, the government is referred to as a minority government. Minority governments must rely on the support of members belonging to other political parties to govern.