Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: CPC expected to form next government as poll predicts over 200 seats for CPC. Trudeau’s LPC may fall to around 55-70 seats.
Canada Federal Election Summary
Justin Trudeau scraped through the 2021 Federal Election by winning 160 out of 338 seats. This was an improvement of 5 seats despite a 0.5% loss in vote share. The Liberals had a highly efficient vote distribution winning 4.9 seats for every 1% of votes won. The Conservatives won 3.5 seats for every 1% of votes won. The NDP continued to be highly inefficient in Federal Elections winning just 1.4 seats for every 1% of votes won. However, Trudeau has finally run out of Luck and the energized Conservatives are well set to return to power in 2025.
Latest Canada Election Videos
Will the Liberals face an early election if they don’t acquiesce to the Bloc’s pension bill?
Latest Canada Election Opinion Polls: Observations and Insights
Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party recently survived a no-confidence vote initiated by the Conservative Party, after their ally, the NDP, withdrew support. Legislators voted 211-120 to reject the Conservative motion that sought to declare a lack of confidence in Trudeau’s minority government. However, the Liberal Party’s popularity has plummeted among Canadians. This year, they lost two special parliamentary elections in Toronto and Montreal, both traditional strongholds for the Liberals, intensifying pressure on Trudeau to resign as leader.
- The Top issues impacting the Canadian election are –
- Economy and Cost of Living
- Housing affordability and accessibility
- Healthcare
- Immigration
- Climate change and the environment
NDP’s Stand Against Conservatives in B.C.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh stated that the initial election results in British Columbia reveal the New Democrats as the primary opposition to the Conservatives and signal their readiness for a federal contest. With the results too close to finalize, automatic recounts are set for two ridings, while the NDP has secured one additional seat. Singh acknowledged the election’s challenges, emphasizing public frustration over rising living costs. He framed the people’s choice as a clash between the Conservative agenda, which he claims includes healthcare cuts, and the NDP’s vision of strengthening essential services like healthcare and pensions. NDP MP Bonita Zarrillo praised the candidates’ efforts against Conservative cuts, while B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad noted a public demand for “common sense” policies. This mirrors the scenario in Ottawa, where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is advocating for non-confidence motions against the Liberals. Singh indicated the NDP’s cautious approach in supporting government initiatives, particularly regarding pharmacare, while also recognizing the need to learn from the B.C. campaign to effectively counter Conservative narratives.
How is Trudeau and his Liberal Party Performing?
- The latest polling from Abacus Data reveals a great lead for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) across various demographics:
- The CPC holds a dominant 28-point lead over the LPC and a 31-point lead over the NDP among male voters.
- The CPC enjoys a 13-point lead over the LPC and a 17-point lead over the NDP among female voters.
- Among younger voters, the CPC leads the LPC by 13 points and the NDP by 16 points.
- The CPC leads the LPC by 25 points and the NDP by 24 points among middle-aged voters.
- Among older voters, the CPC leads the LPC by 20 points and the NDP by 29 points.
- Where are the Liberals bleeding vs 2021? [Leger Polls]
- 18 to 34 years: -12%
- 35 to 54 years: -12%
- Men: -11%
- Ontario: -11%
- BC: -10%
The economy, inflation, and housing issues have significantly hurt Trudeau’s Liberals. Under Trudeau, Canada’s per capita GDP grew by just $13,700, underperforming compared to the U.S., where GDP growth was twice as fast. Inflation surged after the 2021 election, peaking at 8.1% in 2022 before declining to 2.8% in June 2024, causing lasting economic damage. During this period, Canada’s population grew by 4.4 million, but housing stock increased by only 1.8 million due to slower GDP growth and higher interest rates. This imbalance, coupled with a 14% rise in housing inflation over 24 months, severely impacted housing affordability. These factors have contributed to a negative perception of the economic conditions and Trudeau’s handling of these issues.
Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Vote Share Forecast(%)
Canada Federal Polls: Seat Projection
Latest Canada Federal Election Opinion Polls
Google Search Share (7 days)
- LPC: 26.3% (2021: 12%)
- CPC: 15.7% (2021: 25%)
- NDP- 57.8% (2021: 63%)
Why Is Canada Facing Strain in Its Relations with India?
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political troubles are impacting his strained relationship with India, as his approval rating has plummeted to 33% and his party has faced significant electoral defeats in Montreal and Toronto. This downturn comes amid a diplomatic crisis with India over Trudeau’s allegations of Indian involvement in the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which India vehemently denies. Diplomatic tensions have escalated, with India recalling its High Commissioner and expelling six Canadian diplomats in response.
India accuses Trudeau of using the situation to distract from domestic challenges, including a cost-of-living crisis, and the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) withdrawal of support from his minority government raises the possibility of a snap election before 2025. Trudeau’s government is also under scrutiny for allegations of foreign interference in elections, which India dismisses as baseless. Trudeau’s political struggles and attempts to court Sikh voters are perceived by India as an exploitation of foreign affairs for domestic gain, resulting in a significant rift between the two nations that could jeopardize bilateral relations.
Canada Election Betting Market
The Conservative Party of Canada is the front-runner to form the next government of Canada. After 3 consecutive mandates, the betting market expects the Conservative Party to form the government. The majority of the bookmakers predict a thumping win for CPC. Here are the odds for the upcoming Canadian federal election (Odds by Fanduel):
| Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Conservative (CPC) | -275 |
| Liberal (LPC) | +200 |
| Any Other Party | +2800 |
| New Democratic (NDP) | +6000 |
| Bloc Quebecois (BQ) | +10000 |
| Green (GPC) | +10000 |
| People’s Party of Canada (PPC) | +10000 |
Canadian economy under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
The Canadian economy has been under pressure and the growth has been the slowest. The US economy outgrew Canada before, during, and after the pandemic. Between 2016 and 2022, Cross reports, “real per capita GDP rose 11.7 percent in the US, but only 2.8 percent in Canada.” Over the last decade (from 2014-23), the Canadian economy has grown at a proverbial snail’s pace, with per capita GDP inching up only 0.8 percent a year. That’s Canada’s slowest growth over a ten-year period since the 1930s.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- Pre-Pandemic (2015-2019): The Canadian economy generally experienced moderate growth, with annual GDP growth rates averaging around 1.8% to 2.0%.
- Pandemic Impact (2020): The Canadian economy contracted by approximately 5.3% in 2020 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Recovery (2021-2024): The economy rebounded with a growth rate of about 4.6% in 2021, followed by a slower growth of 3.5% in 2022. In 2023, the economy grew around 1.1% and IMF revised Canada’s GDP growth in 2024 up to 1.3%
Fiscal Policy and Government Spending
- Federal Deficit and Debt:
- 2019-2020: The federal deficit was around CAD 39.4 billion.
- 2020-2021: The deficit surged to approximately CAD 354.2 billion due to pandemic-related spending.
- 2021-2022: The deficit decreased to around CAD 320.6 billion as pandemic-related spending began to normalize.
- 2022-2023: The deficit continued to decrease to about CAD 224 billion.
- National Debt: As of 2023, the federal debt was estimated to be over CAD 1.2 trillion.
Unemployment
- Unemployment Rate:
- Pre-Pandemic (2019): The unemployment rate was around 5.7%.
- Pandemic Peak (2020): The unemployment rate spiked to approximately 9.4% in May 2020.
- Recovery: The unemployment rate had decreased to around 5.0% by mid-2022 but by June 2024, the unemployment rate in Canada stands at 6.4%.
Housing Market
- Housing Prices:
- 2020-2021: Average home prices in Canada saw a sharp increase, with prices rising by approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year.
- 2022: Home price growth began to moderate but remained high, with average prices increasing by about 5% to 10%.
- 2023-24: The housing market showed signs of stabilization with a year-over-year price increase of around 3% to 5%. As of July 2024, the average selling price of a home in Canada was $724,800, which is a 0.8% decrease from the previous month. This is also a 3.9% decrease from the previous year. However, the average price is expected to increase to $722,063 by 2025.
Inflation
Inflation Rate: As of July 2024, Canada’s core CPI rose by 1.7% YoY while the inflation rate fell to 2.5%
Read about Justin Trudeau Approval Rating
Read about Pierre Poilievre Approval Rating
Canada Election Polls: Summary of recent elections
Political Polls Canada 2023: Two major provincial elections were completed after that, here is how each of the leading parties performed in the Federal and Provincial election
Liberal Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections
- Quebec
- Provincial 2018: 24.8% -> Federal 2021: 33.6% -> Provincial 2022: 14.4%
- Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 19.6% ->Federal 2021: 39.3% -> Provincial 2022: 23.9%
Conservative Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections
- Quebec
- Provincial 2018: 1.5% -> Federal 2021: 18.6% -> Provincial 2022: 12.9%
- Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 40.5% ->Federal 2021: 34.9% -> Provincial 2022: 40.8%
New Democratic Party Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections
- Ontario
- Provincial 2018: 33.6% ->Federal 2021: 9.8% -> Provincial 2022: 23.7%
Canada Demography
Total Population: As per the latest data, the total population of Canada is around 38 million. Canada is the 38th largest country in the world in terms of population. Canada has a more female population than a male population. There are 98.58 males per 100 females.
Religious Composition of Canada: Canada has a vibrant population. The major religions followed in Canada are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Sikhism. Of these, 67% of Canadians are Christian, 24% have no religion, and 3.2% are Muslim. Sikhs in Canada form around 1.4% of the total population while Hindus are around 1.5%.
Major Races of Canada: Ethnic Group forms 32.3% of the Canadian population, English are around 18.%, Scottish (13.9%), French (13.6%), Irish (13.4%), German (9.6%), and Chinese (5.1%).
Understanding Canada Legislative (Parliament Election)
Canada’s political landscape is influenced by regional dynamics. Parties may focus on specific regional issues or have stronger support in certain provinces or territories. For instance, the Bloc Québécois primarily focuses on Quebec’s interests Voter turnout in Canadian federal elections can vary, with younger voters historically participating less than older demographics. Demographic factors such as age, ethnicity, and language can influence voting patterns. The 2019 voting percentage was 67% while 62.2% in 2021.
The members of the lower house of the Parliament or the House of Commons are elected by the citizens directly. There are currently 338 seats in the House of Commons.
A government formed by the party or the coalition of parties holding most seats in the House of Commons is known as a majority government.
When the party in power holds more seats than any other party but falls short of a clear majority in the House, the government is referred to as a minority government. Minority governments must rely on the support of members belonging to other political parties to govern.
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