Canada Federal Election Polls 2021 and Results
Canada Election Polls 2021 and Results: Liberals 158, Conservatives 119, NDP 25, BQ 34, Greens 2FINAL RESULTS
General Election: Election Leads and Results
Liberals 158, Conservatives 119, NDP 25, BQ 34, Greens 2
Liberals: 32.3%, Conservatives: 33.9%, NDP: 17.7%, PPC: 5.1%, Greens: 2.3%, BQ: 7.8% (Source: Elections Canada)
| CPC | LPC | NDP | PPC | BQ | |
| Alberta | 55.4% (-13.6) | 15.3% (+1.5%) | 19% (+7.4%) | 7.5% (+5.3%) | |
| BC | 33.4% (-0.6%) | 26.8% (+0.6%) | 29% (+4.6%) | 5.1% (+3.4%) | |
| Ontario | 35.1 % (+2%) | 38.9% (-2.7%) | 17.9% (+1.1%) | 5.6% (+4%) | |
| Quebec | 18.7% (+2.7%) | 33.4% (-0.9%) | 9.8% (-1%) | 2.7% (+1.2%) | 32.2% (-0.2%) |
| Manitoba | 39.5% (-2.7%) | 27.1% (+0.6%) | 23.3% (+2.5%) | 7.8% (+5.8%) | |
| Saskatchewan | 59.8% (-4.2%) | 10.2% (-1.5%) | 20.5% (+0.9%) | 6.8% (+5%) |
| CPC | LPC | NDP | PPC | BQ | |
| Toronto | 31.4% | 48.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | |
| Montréal | 11.2% | 40.9% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 30.1% |
| Calgary | 56.2% | 19.1% | 15.7% | 5.6% | |
| Ottawa | 32.8% | 42.9% | 17.8% | 3.6% | |
| Edmonton | 49.1% | 16.3% | 25.7% | 7.4% | |
| Winnipeg | 36.7% | 29.7% | 23.6% | 7.6% |
Pollster Leger was closest to the result
Election Day, Google Search Live Update, Sep 20th
- 8 AM to 7.30 PM Ontario Time: On Google Search, Liberals have a 11.7% share of search while the conservatives are at 25.2%. Over the last 7 days, Liberals had a 10.8% share of search while the Tories were at 20.9%
- In 2019, on election day, October 21st, Liberals had a 8.1% share of search while the conservatives were at 22.5%
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Seat Projections, Sep 20th
| Pollster | Date | Liberals | Conservatives | NDP | Error, Top 3 parties |
| Results | Sep 20th | 158 | 119 | 25 | |
| Average of Polls | Sep 20th | 156 | 116 | 32 | 12 |
| Leantossup | Sep 20th | 158 | 114 | 33 | 16 |
| ASI | Sep 19th | 168 | 98 | 38 | 44 |
| 338 Canada | Sep 20th | 148 | 125 | 32 | 23 |
| 2ClosetoCall | Sep 19th | 152 | 122 | 28 | 12 |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 19th | 154 | 120 | 30 | 10 (Most accurate) |
| 2019 | 157 | 121 | 24 |
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls and Predicted Winner, Sep 19th
| Pollster | Polling Dates | Liberals | Conservatives | NDP |
| Weekly Polls Average | Sep 14-18th | 31.8% | 31.8% | 19.4% |
| Eyesover | Sep 19th | 35% | 32% | 18% |
| Ipsos | Sep 15-18th | 31% | 32% | 21% |
| Leger | Sep 14th-17th | 32% | 33% | 19% |
| Angus Reid | Sep 17th | 30% | 32% | 20% |
| Counsel | Sep 18th | 31% | 30% | 19% |
| Daily Polls Average | Reported on Sep 19th | 31.5% | 30.2% | 19.5% |
| Nanos Research | Sep 18th | 31% | 31% | 21% |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 18th | 32% | 31% | 19% |
| EKOS | Sep 18th | 32.1% | 26.9% | 19.0% |
| Abacus Data | Sep 18th | 31% | 32% | 19% |
| Results 2019 | 2019 | 33.1% | 34.3% | 16% |
Canada Election Polls 2021 seat forecasts, Range
- NDP – 28 to 38 [7 seats]
- Liberals – 146 to 168[22 seats]
- Conservatives – 98 to 127 [29 seats]
In 2019, Leger, Ipsos and Nanos were closest to the Conservatives performance, the average of the 3 pollsters gives the Tories a vote share of 31.3% in 2021
In 2019, Leger was closest to the Liberals performance, the pollster gives the Liberals a vote share of 32% in 2021
In 2019, Abacus was closest to the NDP performance, the pollster gives the NDP a vote share of 21% in 2021
A look at the key battlegrounds to watch across Canada
Key races across Canada to watch on election night
Canada Election Polls 2021, Range
- NDP – 19 to 21% [ 2%]
- Liberals – 30 to 35% [5%]
- Conservatives – 26.9% to 33% [6.1%]
Google Search trends indicate NDP is most likely to underperform 2019 results [16% ]. However, Consensus amongst Pollsters is the highest for NDP forecasts
Canada Election Polls 2021, Male Voters, voting intentions
| Average of Polls | Leger | Abacus | Ekos | Ipsos | |
| Conservatives | 34.8% | 36% | 34% | 32% | 37% |
| Liberals | 30.0% | 31% | 30% | 29% | 30% |
| NDP | 18.5% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 20% |
Canada Election Polls 2021, Female Voters, voting intentions
| Average of Polls | Leger | Abacus | Ekos | Ipsos | |
| Conservatives | 27.8% | 32% | 29% | 22% | 28% |
| Liberals | 33.8% | 32% | 33% | 37% | 33% |
| NDP | 21.0% | 21% | 23% | 18% | 22% |
Canada Election Polls 2021, 18 to 34 years, voting intentions
| Average of Polls | Leger | Ekos | Ipsos | |
| Conservatives | 24.7% | 25% | 24% | 25% |
| Liberals | 26.0% | 30% | 20% | 28% |
| NDP | 29.7% | 31% | 26% | 32% |
Canada Election Polls 2021 province polls, Range
NDP
- Ontario: 18-22% (4%)
- Atlantic: 19-24% (5%)
- BC: 27-33% (6%)
- Quebec: 10-17% (7%)
- Alberta: 13-26% (13%)
Liberals
- Ontario: 35-39% (4%)
- Quebec: 27-34% (7%)
- Alberta: 14-21% (7%)
- BC: 20-28% (8%)
- Atlantic: 33-49% (16%)
Conservatives
- Quebec: 16-20% (4%)
- BC: 30-36% (6%)
- Ontario: 26-35% (9%)
- Alberta: 40-54% (14%)
- Atlantic: 18-34% (16%)
Interactive: How Canadians voted in the past 7 federal elections
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Accuracy of Polls
In 2019, Mainstreet Research’s predictions had an NDP tilt, EKOS missed the conservative forecast by 4% points, Nanos too over reported NDP share while Ipsos was relatively closer to the result than other pollsters. Angus Reid on the other hand missed the Liberal party forecasts by a mile. Overall, it appears NDP tends to get overrepresented in these polls.
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Who is winning according to Google Search? Sep 20th
On Google Search, Liberals have a 10.8% share of search in the last 7 days, Tories are at 20.9%
In 2019, Liberals had 11.0% share of search in the last 7 days prior to 2019 election, Tories were at 22.0%
In Quebec, the Liberals appeared to have gained vote share from the Bloc while bleeding everywhere else
Please do not convert Google Search data into vote share
Google too published search data click here
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Trudeau Polls, Sep 20th
Google Search Update
Sep 13th to 20th: Justin Trudeau: 57.5%, Erin O’Toole: 25.3%, Jagmeet Singh: 17.2%
Sep 6th to 12th: Justin Trudeau: 57.9%, Erin O’Toole: 27.9%, Jagmeet Singh: 14.3%
2019 Election: Justin Trudeau: 48%, Andrew Scheer: 25%, Jagmeet Singh: 27%
Trudeau Polls Update, Preferred PM/ Best PM
| Pollster | Polling Dates | Trudeau | O’Toole | Singh |
| Average | Sep 15th-18th | 30.7% | 28.3% | 22.3% |
| Ipsos poll | Sep 15-18th | 28% | 27% | 23% |
| Abacus Data | Sep 18th | 35% | 32% | 22% |
| Nanos Research | Sep 18th | 29% | 26% | 22% |
2019 Nanos Trudeau: 33, Scheer: 30, Singh: 9
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Province level performance, Sep 19th
Final federal election poll shows tight three-way race in B.C. | Vancouver Sun
Google Search Data, Province Level Swings, Sep 19th
| Province | LPC | CPC | NDP |
| BC | +2% | +2% | -18% |
| Alberta | -5% | -6% | -13% |
| Ontario | +0% | -2% | -18% |
| Province | BQ | LPC | CPC | NDP |
| Quebec | -10% | -3% | +7% | -7% |
Ipsos Province level Update (Sep 19th)
Angus Reid Update, (Sep 18th)
Mainstreet Research Update (Sep 19th)
Abacus Province level data, Sep 19th
Leger Poll, Sep 18th
Major Issues that Could Impact the Upcoming Canada Federal Election
Canada election: Unemployment in Newfoundland could rock vote
Inflation, affordability top election concerns: survey
- Handling of Ongoing Coronavirus Pandemic
Canada is facing a fourth wave of Coronavirus pandemic and the country is under serious economic pressure. Added to it the growing concerns among the unvaccinated citizens are set to impact the election result. The political parties are keen to focus on their competing visions for how Canada can recover from the pandemic. - Housing Affordability
Recently research published by Nanos showed that affordable housing has become a top issue in the 2021 federal election. The poll showed 15 percent of Canadians surveyed said they are worried about whether they will be able to pay for their housing in the next 30 days. - Racial Justice
There have been growing calls for racial justice in Canada. Since the discovery of unmarked graves at residential schools, anti-racism has become one of the key focuses of the election.
Election 2021 platforms: Here’s what the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are promising
CBC News: How do the main parties compare on these issues?
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: What Happened in the Last Election?
Canada Federal Election 2021 Polls and News: Election Procedure
Canada Election 2021 Date: September 20th, 2021
The Parliament of Canada has two chambers: the House of Commons and the Senate. The House of Commons has 338 seats while Senate has 105 members. The term of the House of Commons is five years.
The party with the maximum number of seats gets a chance to run the government for five years. The majority mark in the Canadian House of Commons is 170 seats. However, a party with a lesser number of seats can form a minority government supported by other parties.
Eligibility of Voters (Source Wikipedia)
- Every Canadian citizen 18 years of age or older has the right to vote, except for the Chief Electoral Officer and the Deputy Chief Electoral Officer
- Inmates serving a sentence of at least two years are allowed to vote in the Canadian Federal election after 2002.
- Many Canadian voters are expected to be able to send mail-in ballots due to COVID-19, which Canada’s chief electoral officer recently said could delay the results by a few days.
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Important Dates
Advance Polls: Sept. 10-13 (Polling Stations) or through Sept 14 at Elections Canada ofc.
By Mail: Apply by Sept. 14, and mail by Sept. 20
In-person:Â Sept. 20