The PoliticalPulse

• Justin Trudeau Approval Ratings: Approve: 26%, Disapprove: 64%, Net Approval: -37%
• Google Trends (Average, 7 days): Trudeau: 71.8%, Poilievre: 28%

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Justin Trudeau has been Prime Minister for more than 8 years now. The Liberals have now been in power in Canada for 20 of the last 30 years. The Liberals won the 2015 election with nearly 40% share, this fell to 33% in 2019 and 32.6% in the 2021 Canada Federal Election.

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025

Justin Trudeau Approval Rating: Insights and Observations

• The Top 2 issues impacting Canadians today are the Economy and Inflation
  • The Canadian economy has been struggling since 2011. Between 2011 and 2023, the per capita GDP grew by just $15000 while the American per capita GDP grew by $43000. In the nearly 9 years that Trudeau has been Prime Minister, the Canadian per capita has grown by just $13700. The Americans grew two times faster.
  • One of the main reasons Canada has been struggling is the runaway inflation which began to rise soon after the 2021 election to a peak of 8.1% in the middle of 2022. Inflation crashed to 2.8% in June 2024 but the damage is done.
• The 3rd Major issue is Housing
  • According to the World Bank, Between 2007 and 2015 [8 years], Canada’s Population grew by 2.8 Million, a growth of 8.5%. Between 2015 and 2023 [8 years], Canada’s population grew by 4.4 Million, a growth of 12.3%. Now, the surge in population in the 9 years should have resulted in significant growth in housing. However, Housing stock grew by just 1.8 million owing to lower GDP growth and higher interest rates. Not just that, the rising cost of building a home also pushed housing inflation by 14% in just 24 months. This in turn led to higher rentals and a significant fall in housing affordability.
• It is no wonder that Trudeau’s approval ratings began to tank in 2022 from 40% approval to less than 30% now. While economic conditions have begun to improve significantly on all fronts, voters have decided to move on.

Internal Dissent: Calls for Trudeau to Resign

Liberal MP Sean Casey’s public support for a letter calling on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign represents an internal challenge to Trudeau’s leadership amid rising dissent within the party. As the Liberal caucus prepares for a crucial meeting, Casey contends that Trudeau has become a distraction, with Canadians increasingly tuning him out due to accumulated “baggage.” Meanwhile, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault has publicly affirmed his continued support for Trudeau. The timing of this unrest is particularly precarious for Trudeau’s minority government, which is grappling with low poll numbers and contentious debates in Parliament, including a Conservative demand for documents related to federal spending on green technology. Compounding these issues, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is advocating for emergency debates concerning serious allegations of foreign interference by India, further intensifying scrutiny of the Liberal government. This confluence of factors underscores the growing instability in Trudeau’s leadership and the broader challenges facing his administration.

Justin Trudeau Approval Rating Today 2024

Justin Trudeau’s approval rating has deteriorated sharply due to issues related to international relations, the economy, housing, healthcare, and the strength of opposition parties. Support for Trudeau has waned significantly across major religious groups; only 31% of Muslims now back the Liberals, a sharp decline from 65% in 2016, and just 33% of Jews support the Liberals, down from 36% in 2018.

Trudeau’s approval ratings have reached their lowest point since he took office in 2015, with only around 30% of Canadians expressing approval, while 62% disapprove, resulting in a net approval rating of -32%.

In contrast, opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s personal favorability remains unchanged, with 39% viewing him favorably and 51% unfavorably. Over the past nine months, Poilievre has been consistently ranked as a preferred choice for Prime Minister by Canadians, although only 33% support him. A notable 29% believe none of the current leaders are suitable, and 14% express support for either Justin Trudeau or Jagmeet Singh.

Justin Trudeau vs Pierre Poilievre: Google Search Share

7 days

Trudeau: 71.8%, Poilievre: 28%

30 days

Trudeau: 65.6%, Poilievre: 34.3%

**The search volume for Justin Trudeau has increased in the past seven days compared to Poilievre.**

What Are the Main Reasons for Trudeau’s Low Approval?

Recent polling by the Angus Reid Institute reveals critical insights into Canadian public opinion, highlighting dissatisfaction with both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The survey shows that 48% of respondents are unhappy with the lack of progress on key issues under Trudeau’s leadership, with another 31% expressing discontent specifically with him. This growing disillusionment is driven by concerns over the rising cost of living, increasing government debt, and Canada’s declining international influence. Overall, 67% of Canadians disapprove of Trudeau’s performance, signaling frustration after nearly eight years in office.

On the flip side, while the Conservative Party’s poll numbers are strong, Pierre Poilievre faces significant challenges. The poll reveals that 52% of respondents are dissatisfied with Poilievre as a leader, suggesting that despite the Conservative Party’s advantage in the polls, Poilievre still has work to do to win over Canadian voters.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Performance

Economy

The Canadian economy has been under pressure and the growth has been the slowest. The US economy outgrew Canada before, during, and after the pandemic. Between 2016 and 2022, Cross reports, “real per capita GDP rose 11.7 percent in the US, but only 2.8 percent in Canada.” Over the last decade (from 2014-23), the Canadian economy has grown at a proverbial snail’s pace, with per capita GDP inching up only 0.8 percent a year. That’s Canada’s slowest growth over a ten-year period since the 1930s.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

• Pre-Pandemic (2015-2019): The Canadian economy generally experienced moderate growth, with annual GDP growth rates averaging around 1.8% to 2.0%.
• Pandemic Impact (2020): The Canadian economy contracted by approximately 5.3% in 2020 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Recovery (2021-2024): The economy rebounded with a growth rate of about 4.6% in 2021, followed by a slower growth of 3.5% in 2022. In 2023, the economy grew around 1.1% and IMF revised Canada’s GDP growth in 2024 up to 1.3%

Fiscal Policy and Government Spending

• Federal Deficit and Debt:
  • 2019-2020: The federal deficit was around CAD 39.4 billion.
  • 2020-2021: The deficit surged to approximately CAD 354.2 billion due to pandemic-related spending.
  • 2021-2022: The deficit decreased to around CAD 320.6 billion as pandemic-related spending began to normalize.
  • 2022-2023: The deficit continued to decrease to about CAD 224 billion.
  • National Debt: As of 2023, the federal debt was estimated to be over CAD 1.2 trillion.

Unemployment

• Unemployment Rate:
  • Pre-Pandemic (2019): The unemployment rate was around 5.7%.
  • Pandemic Peak (2020): The unemployment rate spiked to approximately 9.4% in May 2020.
  • Recovery: The unemployment rate had decreased to around 5.0% by mid-2022 but by June 2024, the unemployment rate in Canada stands at 6.4%.

Housing Market

• Housing Prices:
  • 2020-2021: Average home prices in Canada saw a sharp increase, with prices rising by approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year.
  • 2022: Home price growth began to moderate but remained high, with average prices increasing by about 5% to 10%.
  • 2023-24: The housing market showed signs of stabilization with a year-over-year price increase of around 3% to 5%. As of July 2024, the average selling price of a home in Canada was $724,800, which is a 0.8% decrease from the previous month. This is also a 3.9% decrease from the previous year. However, the average price is expected to increase to $722,063 by 2025.

Inflation

• Inflation Rate: As of July 2024, Canada’s core CPI rose by 1.7% YoY while the inflation rate fell to 2.5%

Immigration

Justin Trudeau’s performance in handling immigration has been a topic of significant discussion and debate in Canada. Trudeau’s government has set ambitious immigration targets, aiming to welcome a record number of newcomers to Canada. This includes various categories such as economic immigrants, refugees, and family reunifications. However, Trudeau’s immigration policies have faced criticism from various political and public sectors. Some argue that the high immigration targets strain public services and infrastructure, while others believe the policies do not address the needs of specific communities adequately.

Border Issue

There have been controversies and criticisms related to the management of irregular border crossings, particularly concerning the influx of asylum seekers crossing from the United States into Canada. The handling of these situations has been a point of contention.

Factors Impacting Justin Trudeau’s Approval Rating

Several factors impact Justin Trudeau’s approval rating, including:

• Policy Decisions: Trudeau’s administration has faced scrutiny over various policy choices. His initiatives to combat climate change have been met with some approval; however, his controversial decision to purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline and expand fossil fuel production has drawn criticism from environmental advocates and Indigenous groups.
  
• Public Perception of Leadership: Trudeau’s leadership approval has notably declined. His management of the COVID-19 pandemic and his approach to international relations—particularly with India, China, and the United States—have raised concerns about his effectiveness and Canada’s position on the global stage.
  
• Economic Performance: Despite implementing policies such as tax cuts for the middle class and investing in infrastructure, Trudeau’s economic strategy has yielded limited results. The Canadian economy has struggled with sluggish growth, rising inflation, and increasing income inequality, contributing to a drop in his approval ratings.

Overall, these factors have predominantly exerted a negative influence on Trudeau’s approval rating.

• Top Issue In Canada According To Nanos Poll
  • Inflation
  • Jobs/Economy
  • Healthcare
  • Housing/Cost of Housing
  • Environment
  • Debt/Deficit
  • Immigration
  • Homelessness
  • High Taxes
  • National Security

Trudeau’s Ratings Fall Over Cost-of-Living Pressures

Trudeau’s Approval Rating Under Pressure:

• Economic concerns, driven by rising inflation and housing unaffordability, are eroding his approval ratings.
• The survey reveals:
  • 81% of lower-income earners are impacted by inflation and rising costs of living.
  • 50% of middle-income earners are also affected.
  • 35% of high-income earners are impacted.
• Housing Affordability Concerns:
  • 75% of renters in 36 cities cannot afford a starter home, highlighting a significant issue with housing affordability.

Justin Trudeau’s declining popularity is closely linked to rising cost-of-living issues, including inflation and housing unaffordability. These economic pressures are causing a significant drop in his approval ratings. Additionally, his recent loss in the Toronto-St. Paul election underscores the growing challenges he faces. To turn this around, Trudeau needs to address these pressing economic concerns effectively and work to regain public trust in his leadership.