NSW State Election 2023 Polls: Who Will Be the Next Premier?

NSW State Election 2023 Polls (Average): LAB: 36.8% LIB/NAT: 33.8% GRN: 10.6% OTH: 15.8%
Two-Party Preference: LAB: 52.5% LIB/NAT: 47.5%

Preferred Premier Polls Average: Perrottet: 42.3%, Minns: 33.7%

Social media sentiments: Perrottet: -57%, Minns: -55%

In 2007, the Labor Party under the leadership of Morris Iemma won a fourth four-year term. Morris Iemma became the 40th Premier of New South Wales but this was the last time Labor formed their government as the 16-year-incumbent Labor Party government was defeated in a landslide win by the Liberal–National Coalition led by Barry O’Farrell in the 2011 NSW state election.

Since then Liberal-National Coalition has been in power in New South Wales. On 25 March 2023, New South Wales will once again vote to elect their new leader. The election for the 58th Parliament consisted of including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council will take place on the said date.

The  Liberal/National Coalition led by Dominic Perrottet is seeking reelection while the coalition is challenged by the Labor Party under the leadership of Chris Minns.

NSW State Election 2023 Polls: Election Procedure

The state election in New South Wales is conducted by the NSW Electoral Commission. The elections are held every four years, however, a state election can be held earlier if the Governor of the NSW dissolves the Parliament.

The NSW election is held under an optional preferential system which means that a voter can mark the first preference and skip the other preferences.

At the time of voting the voters are to cast their votes in two ballots, one for the upper house and one for the lower house.

The smaller paper is for the lower house to elect the local leader and in turn the Premier. The second ballot paper is for the upper house.

Who is Slated to Win the Upcoming NSW election?

In New South Wales for a party to have its Premier or form a Government need 47 seats. The current government in NSW is a minority government with the National Coalition having only 45 seats. They had 48 seats when the election was concluded in 2019. The opposition Labor has 38 seats.

The polls for the upcoming NSW election have indicated the fall of the 11-year-old Liberal-National coalition. The polls have indicated the Labor party to emerge as the single largest party with none getting the majority. The Green party which won 3 seats in the last election could back the Labor Party in government formation.

However, the others or the independents could play a key role in government formation. In the upcoming election, a larger number of independents are on the ballot which could hurt both the Coalition as well as the Labor Party.

In the NSW Parliament, the independents or the MPs from the smaller parties are marked under the crossbench. With the election result likely to throw a hung result, the crossbench will have a key role to play they will be the ones who could help in government formation. In 2019 alone 9 independents or members from smaller parties were elected to parliament.

Considering the current scenario, the upcoming election will likely throw a hung assembly.

Latest NSW state Election 2023 Polls: Legislative

Primary Voting

Average (18th Mar)33.8%36.8%10.6%15.8%
Roy Morgan (28 Feb)32.5%33.5%11%14.5%
Resolve Strategic(28 Feb)32%38%11%20%
Freshwater Strategy (27Feb)37%39%10%13%

The NSW election is heading for a hung assembly with no party getting a majority in the Primary voting. Labor will, however, emerge as the single largest party. They have a marginal lead over the coalition.

NSW State Election 2023 Polls: Two-Party Preference

Average (18th Mar)47.5%52.5%
Roy Morgan (28th Feb)47.5%52.5%
Freshwater Strategy (27th Feb)47%53%
Newspoll (26th Feb)48%52%

The polls indicate the Labor Party is likely to end their 11 years of political drought in New South Wales. The Labor Party will likely be for the government.

NSW State Election 2023 Polls: Preferred Premier Polls

Average of last three polls (18th Mar)42.3%33.7%
Resolve Strategic38%34%
Freshwater Strategy46%34%

Read: Anthony Albanese Approval Rating

NSW State Election 2023 Polls: Latest Video

  • Perrottet: 46%
  • Minns: 54%

Social Media Sentiments

  • Perrottet: -57%
  • Minns: -55%

NSW state election polls: What happened in the last election?

Following the 2019 elections, Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory while the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971. The exact seat count was as follows:

Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers3

The Labor party could only manage to get 2 more seats from  Coogee and Lismore and thus the coalition with a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority formed the government.

NSW state election 2023 polls: Demography

The estimated population of New South Wales at the end of December 2021 was 8,095,430 people, representing approximately 31.42% of the nationwide population. In June 2017 Sydney was home to almost two-thirds (65.3%) of the NSW population. At the 2021 census, approx 34.6% of the population was born overseas. Only 43.7% of the population had both parents born in Australia. English and Australia are the top ancestries of the NSW population.

Around 30% of people in NSW speak a language other than English at home with Mandarin (3.4%), Arabic (2.8%), Cantonese (1.8%), Vietnamese (1.5%), and Hindi (1.0%) being the most popular.

The most commonly reported religions (as reported by the 2021 census) and Christian denominations were Roman Catholicism (22.4%), Anglicanism (11.9%), and Islam (4.3%). 32.8% of the population described themselves as having no religion.

NSW State Election 2023 Polls

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