NZ Polls 2023: NAT+ACT to Form Next
New Zealand Polls (NZ Polls 2023): The alliance of the National Party and ACT NZ could form the next government in New Zealand.
NZ Polls 2023 (Seats)(Latest Poll): NAT: 49 LAB: 35 GRN: 15 ACT: 13 TPM: 3 NZF: 5
Likely Government: NAT+ACT or NAT+ACT+NZF
New Zealand’s upcoming General election to select the 54th Parliament is scheduled for October 14, 2023. After being in power for six years, the incumbent Labour Party is now grappling with a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. The government’s perceived mishandling of the COVID-19 situation has significantly impacted its standing, tarnishing its reputation among the New Zealanders who previously granted them a resounding majority in the previous election. As a consequence, Jacinda Ardern stepped down from her position as the Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Chris Hipkins who was the Minister of Education in Jacinda Ardern’s government is now the Prime Minister of New Zealand.
NZ Election Latest Updates
Election Campaign Kicks Off
The Labor Party and the National Party kicked off their election campaign on the weekend. The main agenda for the upcoming election are:
- The cost of living: The cost of living is a major issue for many New Zealanders. Labour has promised to increase benefits and tax breaks for low-income earners. National has promised to reduce taxes for everyone.
- Housing affordability: Housing affordability is another major issue. Labour has promised to build more houses and increase the supply of affordable housing. National has promised to reduce regulations on the housing market.
- Climate change: Climate change is a major challenge facing New Zealand. Labour has promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and invest in renewable energy. National has promised to focus on economic growth and jobs.
- Immigration: Immigration is a controversial issue in New Zealand. Labour has promised to maintain a sustainable level of immigration. National has promised to reduce immigration.
The election campaign in New Zealand will last for six weeks in the run-up to voting day on October 14.
Who will Form the Next Government in NZ?
NZ Opinion Polls: Who is Leading?
| Polls | NAT+ |
| Google Search | Hipkins |
| Social Media Sentiments | Hipkins |
Latest News
- New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ four-year-old daughter is in hospital with a rare blood condition called Von Willebrand disease. The condition affects the body’s ability to clot blood. Hipkins announced his daughter’s illness on Facebook on Wednesday, saying that she was in hospital for “some needed treatment.” He said that he would be working from the hospital while she was being treated.
- National Party leader Christopher Luxon has said that he will not sack Tim van de Molen, despite the MP being found in contempt of Parliament. Van de Molen was found in contempt of Parliament for threatening Labour MP Shanan Halbert during a heated debate. The Privileges Committee said that van de Molen’s actions were “unacceptable” and “inappropriate”.
Latest NZ Polls 2023
| Voteshare | LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT |
| Average (15th Sept) | 27.3 | 38.1 | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| 1 News–Verian | 28 | 39 | 10 | 10 |
| Guardian Essential | 26.9 | 34.5 | 11 | 10.3 |
| Newshub–Reid Research | 26.8 | 40.9 | 12.3 | 10.1 |
Projected Seats
| LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | TPM | NZF | |
| Average 15 Sep 2023 | 35 | 49 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 5 |
| 1 News–Verian 9–12 Sep 2023 | 35 | 49 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 7 |
| Guardian Essential 6–10 Sep 2023 | 35 | 45 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 8 |
| Newshub–Reid Research 3–9 Sep 2023 | 34 | 53 | 16 | 13 | 4 | 0 |
The Labour Party is struggling and it is highly unlikely for them to return to power as per the latest polls. However, none of the political parties are in a position to form a government on their own. The alliance of the National Party and ACT NZ could likely form the government.
New Zealand Polls 2023: Google Trends
Leaders (Last 7 Days)
- Christopher Luxon (NAT): 29%
- Chris Hipkins (LAB): 71%
New Zealand Polls 2023: Social Media Sentiments
Leaders (Last 7 Days)
- Christopher Luxon (Term: Luxon) (NAT): -62%
- Chris Hipkins (Term: Hipkins) (LAB): -55%
New Zealand Polls 2023: Latest Opinion Polls
Indian Newslink- According to the Indian Newslink Opinion Poll, a large majority of respondents prefer the National Party to lead the next government. The ACT Party is also considered a natural ally for National, similar to other polls. Out of 200 participants in the First Opinion Poll, most identified as People of Indian Origin. In the upcoming general election on October 14, 2023, 60.5% of them expressed their intention to vote for National, while only 16.8% favored Labour. The ACT Party was the choice of 14.2%, followed by New Zealand First at 4.2%. The Green Party had 3.2% support, and The Opportunities Party received 0.5%. Other political parties didn’t gain any significant support.
Previous Election Analysis and Events Since Then
The previous New Zealand election took place on October 17, 2020. The then-incumbent Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, defended her three-year tenure as the country’s administrator.
The outcome of the election marked a significant milestone in New Zealand’s political history since the introduction of the MMP (Mixed-Member Proportional) voting system in 1996. The Labour Party secured a remarkable victory by winning an outright majority on its own, becoming the first party to do so since 1996. Under Jacinda Ardern’s leadership, the Labour Party claimed 65 seats. Their coalition partner, the Green Party, secured 10 seats, while New Zealand First, another coalition partner, failed to meet the five percent threshold or win in an electorate.
The National Party, the main opposition, won 33 seats, a substantial decline of 23 seats compared to the previous election. ACT New Zealand experienced a significant boost, going from one seat to ten. Additionally, Te Pāti Māori won a Māori electorate and gained an extra list seat.
Since the last General election, two important political events have occurred. The National Party gained one seat, while the Labour Party lost one seat. In December 2022, a by-election took place in the Hamilton West seat following the resignation of former Labour Party MP Gaurav Sharma. Twelve candidates competed in the by-election, with the National Party candidate, Tama Potaka, emerging as the winner with 46.29% of the total votes. The Labour candidate, Georgie Dansey, received 30.14% of the total votes.
The most significant political event leading up to the next General election was the resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern after announcing the election dates. Chris Hipkins assumed the role of Prime Minister following Ardern’s resignation.
NZ Polls 2023: Latest Developments
Budget Analysis
- The budget focuses on pragmatic and practical measures, aiming to provide modest financial relief to citizens ahead of the upcoming election.
- The government’s initiatives include making most prescription medicines free, increasing subsidies for child care, and providing free public transportation for children under the age of 13.
- Significant investments are allocated to infrastructure projects, such as building new schools and hospitals and creating weather-resilient power connections and roads to replace those damaged by extreme weather events earlier in the year.
- The budget is expected to be approved by lawmakers, given the large majority held by Hipkins and his supporters in Parliament.
- The Treasury forecast suggests that New Zealand’s economy will not enter a recession, but it predicts a rise in unemployment and subdued economic growth.
- The opposition leader, Christopher Luxon, criticizes the government for excessive spending, citing increased deficits and debt as a result.
- Inflation is projected to decline from the current level of 6.7% to around 3% by the end of the following year, and the central bank’s benchmark interest rate is believed to have peaked at 5.25%.
- The government anticipates returning to a budget surplus by 2026 after running deficits since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government debt is expected to peak at 22% of GDP before declining.
- Overall, the budget reflects a cautious and measured approach, prioritizing immediate relief measures and infrastructure investments while acknowledging the economic challenges facing the country.
The takeaway from Green Party Candidate List
Here are a few key points:
- Leadership Continuity: The fact that co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw remain at the top of the Green Party’s list indicates a sense of stability and continuity in the party’s leadership. This can be both a strength and a weakness, as it shows consistency but may also limit opportunities for new voices to rise within the party.
- Fresh Faces: While the leadership remains unchanged, the inclusion of a few fresh faces on the party list suggests an effort to bring in new perspectives and diversity. Chloe Swarbrick, a well-known member of the party, retains a high position, indicating her popularity and influence.
- Internal Discord: Elizabeth Kerekere’s resignation and criticism of the co-leaders highlight internal tensions within the Green Party. The incident involving Kerekere’s inappropriate message and subsequent internal review raise questions about party unity and communication.
- Focus on Māori Representation: The Green Party’s emphasis on Māori representation is evident in their candidate selection and co-leader Marama Davidson’s statement. The inclusion of strong “tangata whenua voices” reflects the party’s commitment to addressing Māori issues and pushing for greater recognition of tino rangatiratanga (Māori self-determination).
- Climate Change and Social Issues: The statements from James Shaw emphasize the Green Party’s key policy priorities, including addressing climate change, improving housing conditions, and reducing wealth inequality. Shaw highlights the significance of the upcoming election in tackling these pressing issues.