Turkey Election Polls: Turkish Election Heats up

May 19, 2023

Turkey Presidential Election Result Round 1: Erdoğan (AKP) 49.50 %, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) 44.89%

Turkey Election Polls (Presidential Election Average Last 5 Polls): Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP): 48.2% Erdoğan (AKP): 47.6%

Google Trends (Last 7 Days): Erdoğan: 52%, Kılıçdaroğlu: 48%

Social Media Sentiment (Last 7 Days): Erdoğan: -6%, Kılıçdaroğlu: -2%

Turkey is set to hold an election for electing the new President of Turkey. Despite the call to postpone the election due to the earthquake, the incumbent President of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan signed a decree for the elections to be held on 14 May 2023.

In 2018, Turkey moved from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. The office of the Prime Minister of Turkey was abolished on 12 July 2018. The election was held on 24 June 2018. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan got an outright majority that is over 50% vote share on the first voting day and was elected as President.

Erdoğan in 2023 will be defending his 9 years of performance as a President of Turkiye. In the upcoming election, Erdogan is up against the united opposition alliances.

Turkey Election Polls: Recap of Round 1

The Turkish political landscape is ablaze with anticipation and speculation following the outcome of the fiercely contested first round of elections on Sunday. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a formidable force in Turkish politics, fell just short of the crucial 50 percent of votes required to secure a third term. In a neck-and-neck race, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan narrowly missed the mark, securing 49.92 percent of votes in the first round of elections, just shy of the required majority. His closest rival, Kilicdaroglu, proved to be a formidable contender, garnering 44.95 percent of votes. A surprise twist came in the form of Sinan Ogan, who captured an unexpectedly high 5.2 percent, making his mark on the political landscape.

Despite surpassing initial predictions, Erdogan now finds himself heading towards a nail-biting run-off vote on May 28

Turkey Election Polls: Brief Analysis of Run-Off Election

A run-off vote is a second round of voting held when no candidate in an election receives more than half of the total votes cast. In the case of the recent presidential election in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fell just short of the required 50 percent threshold needed for an outright victory in the first round. As a result, a run-off vote will be held between Erdogan and his closest competitor, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. This gives both candidates an opportunity to campaign and garner support over the next two weeks. The final results from the initial round are expected to be announced soon, with the counting of overseas votes still underway.

Turkey Election Polls: Who are the Candidates?

Unlike the last Presidential election which saw parties declaring their own candidate for office, the 2023 Turkish Presidential election is set to witness a fight between the alliance candidates. In 2018, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the candidate of the People’s Alliance, the rest of the parties had separate candidates.

This time to take on Erdogan, the 6 opposition parties have come together to form a Nation Alliance with Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) as their joint leader.

Ata Alliance has declared Sinan Oğan as their Presidential Candidate while the Labour and Freedom Alliance and Union of Socialist Forces are yet to declare their candidate.

Turkey Election Polls: Observations and Insights

The ORC Poll: In the 2018 Turkish presidential election, the actual results were as follows
- Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured 52.3% of the vote, and Muharrem Ince received 30.8%. In the ORC Araştirma’s 2018 opinion polls, Erdogan polled 52.7% and Ince polled 29.2%. This means that the error in their predictions was just 0.4% for Erdogan and 1.6% for Ince.
- In the 2023 polls, Kılıçdaroğlu is leading with 51.7% of the vote, followed by Erdogan at 44.2%, Ogan at 2.8%, and Thin at 1.3%.
Recent polls have shown a significant surge in the rating of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, signaling a notable shift in public sentiment towards the opposition leader. This surge in popularity is a clear indication of Kilicdaroglu’s growing appeal among voters.
Over the past two weeks, Kilicdaroglu has experienced a remarkable increase of 5% in his rating. This surge is an impressive achievement and suggests that his political message is resonating with a broader segment of the population.
On the other hand, President Erdogan has faced a decline in his rating, losing ground to Kilicdaroglu. This deficit of 2.8% against his opponent highlights the erosion of support for Erdogan and his ruling party.
The shift in ratings can be attributed to various factors. Kilicdaroglu’s consistent and focused messaging, coupled with effective campaigning, has helped him gain traction and connect with voters on key issues.
Additionally, recent events, such as economic challenges and social unrest, might have influenced public opinion. Dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of these issues could have contributed to Erdogan’s declining rating.

Turkey Election Polls: Presidential (Latest Last 5 Polls)

Average (14 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 47.6%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 48.2%, Lead – 0.6%

TAG (11-13 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 45.1%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 52.1%, Lead – 7.0%

IEA (12 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 45.6%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 50.5%, Lead – 4.9%

AREDA (11-12 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 51.3%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 44.2%, Lead – [7.1%]

ASAL (11-12 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 50.6%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 46.3%, Lead – 4.3%

Aksoy (9-12 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 45.6%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 47.9%, Lead – 2.3%

Here are the Polls of the two most accurate Pollsters of the 2018 election

Average of Most Accurate Pollsters of 2018

Erdoğan (AKP) – 44.8%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 51.3%, Lead – 6.5%

ORC (10-11 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 44.2%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 51.7%, Lead – 7.5%

Mak (26 Apr-4 May)

Erdoğan (AKP) – 45.4%, Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) – 50.9%, Lead – 5.5%

Turkey Election Polls: Last 3 Polls Brief Analysis

In the Turkish Presidential Polls, we are witnessing an interesting development as Kilicdaroglu’s popularity has been steadily rising, positioning him as a strong contender against Erdogan. The average of the latest polls indicates a significant lead of 4.9% for Kilicdaroglu over Erdogan, highlighting a growing dissatisfaction with the current administration. The latest poll conducted by ORC is even more favorable for Kilicdaroglu, showing his lead as high as 7.5%. This surge in support for Kilicdaroglu can be attributed to several factors, including discontentment with Erdogan’s policies, concerns about the economy, and a desire for change among the Turkish electorate. As a political pundit, it is clear that Kilicdaroglu’s momentum poses a considerable challenge to Erdogan’s longstanding dominance.

Turkey Election Polls: Latest Developments

In a significant development ahead of Turkey’s upcoming presidential election, Muharrem Ince, the leader of the center-left Homeland Party, has announced his withdrawal from the race. This decision is expected to have a positive impact on the main challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ince, who was one of the four contenders running in the presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has opted to step aside. His withdrawal comes amidst concerns that his candidacy could split support from the six-party Nation Alliance, which has rallied behind the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Ince’s exit from the race is likely to prevent a potential second round of voting, providing a more consolidated challenge to President Erdogan.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has intensified his inflammatory rhetoric against the LGBTQ+ community as he gears up for the closely contested upcoming election. In an attempt to solidify support from his conservative Islamist base, Erdogan has resorted to labeling Turkey’s LGBTQ+ population as “deviant structures” and a “virus of heresy.” In his speeches on the campaign trail leading up to Sunday’s election, Erdogan has repeatedly engaged in toxic invective against homosexuality. His language not only serves to fuel discrimination and hatred but also aims to portray the opposition as undermining traditional family values while being controlled by alleged influential LGBTQ+ networks, at times suggesting foreign funding and interference.

Turkey Election Polls: Google Trends

Trend Result Last 7 Days

Erdoğan: 59%
Kılıçdaroğlu: 41%

Turkey Election Polls: Social Media Sentiment

Last 7 Days

Erdoğan: -4%
Kılıçdaroğlu: -3%

Turkey Election Polls: Parliamentary (Latest Last 3 Polls)

Peoples’ Alliance:

	AKP	MHP	YRP	Total
Avrasya (5th May)	35.1	7.9	1.1	44.1
MAK/ Kamoyi Analizi (4th May)	36.9	6.6	1.0	45.2
Ivem (2nd May)	43.3	4.1	–	47.4

Nation Alliance

	CHP	İYİ	Total
Avrasya (5th May)	33.0	8.6	41.6
MAK/ Kamoyi Analizi (4th May)	30.1	12.6	42.7
Ivem (2nd May)	28.9	8.4	37.3

Labour and Freedom Alliance

	YSGP	TİP	Total
Avrasya (5th May)	9.7	1.5	11.2
MAK/ Kamoyi Analizi (4th May)	10.4	0.4	10.8
Ivem (2nd May)	10.4	1.3	11.7

The Labour and Freedom Alliance are likely to poll an average of 11.5% vote share.

Turkey Election Polls: Electoral System

The President of Turkey is elected by two round voting system. The representatives of all parties/alliance contest in the first round of voting. A candidate getting more than 50% of the vote share is elected as President. However, if none of the candidates crosses the threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates of the first round.

The candidate getting the maximum vote is elected as the President.

Turkey Election Polls: Highlights of the Last Election

The 2018 Turkey Presidential Election was the first election held after the constitutional amendments approved in a 2017 referendum which also resulted in the abolition of the office of Prime Minister.

Tayyip Erdogan was the Presidential Candidate representing the People’s Alliance while Republican People’s Party, nominated Muharrem İnce as their Presidential candidate. The Peoples’ Democratic Party nominated Selahattin Demirtaş and Meral Akşener to represent İyi Party. Other candidates were Temel Karamollaoğlu of the Felicity Party and Doğu Perinçek of the Patriotic Party,

The election saw an 87 percent turnout. Erdoğan received 52.5 percent of the vote—an outright victory. Muharrem İnce received 30.6 percent. Here is the total vote share division among all the candidates:

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan	Justice and Development Party	52.59%
Muharrem İnce	Republican People’s Party	30.64%
Selahattin Demirtaş	Peoples’ Democratic Party	8.40%
Meral Akşener	Good Party	7.29%
Temel Karamollaoğlu	Felicity Party	0.89%
Doğu Perinçek	Patriotic Party	0.20%

However, Erdoğan’s AKP (Justice and Development Party) fell short of the majority with 42.5 percent of the vote. AKP got 295 and fell short of the majority by 6 seats in the 600-member parliament. AKP’s ally the MHP (Nationalist Action Party) received 11.1 percent of the vote and obtained 49 seats in parliament.

CHP (People’s Republican Party) won 22.6 percent vote share and 146 seats. Its ally, the newly formed İyi (Good) party, led by Meral Akşener, won an impressive 10 percent of the vote and 43 seats. Kurdish HDP (Peoples’ Democratic Party) contested the elections on its own and managed to pass the 10 percent threshold for entering parliament, winning 11.7 percent of the vote (67 seats).

Turkey Election Polls: Demographic Division

Turkey has a population of around 85.2 million as per the latest data (31 December 2022). The median age of the Turkish population is 33.5 years. Around 22% of the population falls in the 0–14 age bracket while the population over the age of 65 is 9.9%.

The population is mainly comprised of Turkish people, who make up 75% of the total population, while Kurdish make up 18%. Other ethnic groups take up the remaining 17% of the total population. The main religion, followed by 99.8% of the population, is Islam, while other religions are followed by the minute .02% of the population.

Ankara is the capital of Turkiye but the city with the largest population in Tukey is Istanbul. The cities with the most population in Turkey (Top 5) are: