Florida Senate Polls 2022: Marco Rubio Beats Demings by a Huge Margin

November 9, 2022

Election Day Updates

Counting

Marco Rubio: 56.7%
Val Demings: 42.3%

Exit Polls

Men: Rubio 60%, Demings 39%
Women: Rubio 50%, Women 49%

Florida Senate Polls 2022: Marco Rubio: 52%, Val Demings: 42%
Google Search Share: Val Demings: 47%, Marco Rubio: 53%

Social Media Sentiment: Marco Rubio: -65.1%, Val Demings: +10.7%

CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Marco Rubio likely to win by a 10% margin

When Is the Florida Senate Race?

The United States Florida Senate Election will be held on November 8th, 2022 to elect a member of the United States to represent the state of Florida. Both the Senate seats of the state of Florida are currently held by Republicans.

2022 Florida Senate Race Prediction: Who is Gaining?

Polls: Steady
Google Search: Rubio
Social Media Sentiment: Demings

Florida Senate Polls: Observations and Insights

Rubio leads Demings 48-43 and is performing better than the average Republican in the last 6 elections. Here are some key findings from the latest Florida Atlantic University Survey
- Rubio is Tied with Demings among Independent voters
- Demings leads Rubio among those who feel Healthcare, Education, Housing, Abortion, and threats to democracy are top issues. Rubio leads Demings among those who feel Inflation, Crime and Immigration are top issues.
- In terms of issues, both candidates lead in issues that are important to 50% of the voters. However, Demings trails overall because of Rubio’s lead on Inflation.
- Demings is surprisingly struggling among Black voters leading 67-28. Rubio on the other hand is leading Demings by just 3 points among Hispanic voters
- Rubio also leads among College graduates, a segment that the Democrats have usually performed well.
How has Google Search share changed over the months?
- August, Rubio 38%, Demings 62%
- September, Rubio 57%, Demings 43%
- October, Rubio 51%, Demings 49%
- October 2016, Rubio 87%, Murphy 13%
Rubio is likely to win
- He has a huge lead amongst Men that should win him the election. Demings has made some headway amongst women but she needs to move a lot more younger women to be able to beat Rubio.
- Demings suffers from relatively poor awareness levels. Patrick Murphy was ahead of Rubio on Google search in 2016 while Demings trails Rubio by 20%.
- Lastly, the super-high inflation has turned away many voters from the Democrats. It is unlikely they will vote for the Democratic party in the Mid-terms

Florida Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest General Election Polls

Average of Polls	November 8th
*Marco Rubio*	*52%*
*Val Demings*	*41.6%*

Research Co	November 6th
*Marco Rubio*	*52%*
*Val Demings*	*42%*

Data for Progress	November 6th
*Marco Rubio*	*55%*
*Val Demings*	*43%*

Amber Integrated	November 2nd
*Marco Rubio*	*49%*
*Val Demings*	*40%*

2018 Senate Election Polls	September 2018
*Marco Rubio (R)*	*45.7%*
*Patrick Murphy (D)*	*39.0%*

Average of Last 6 Federal Elections	2016-2020
*Republicans*	*51.2%*
*Democrats*	*47.4%*

Read: Latest Florida Governor Polls

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Google Search Volume Share

Last 7 days

Marco Rubio: 53%
Val Demings: 47%

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments

Last 7 days

Marco Rubio: -65.1%
Val Demings: +10.7%

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Funding

Marco Rubio: $13.1m
Val Demings: $13.2m

Florida Senate Polls 2022: Latest Campaign News

Florida Senate Polls: Demographics of Florida

As per the 2020 Census figures

White American: 51.5%
Hispanic American: 26.5%
African American: 14.5%
Others: 7.5%

70% of the State’s denizens identify as Christian and 3% identify as Jews. The two largest congregations are Protestants at 46% and Catholics at 21%.

Most of Florida’s Hispanics are Cubans. In fact, Florida as a state due to its close proximity to Cuba has the highest proportion of Cuban Americans in the country. Most of the community is well known for its antipathy to Communism or Socialism due to most of the community being forced to migrate due to the actions of the Communist government of Cuba.

There’s a large chunk of Puerto Ricans in Florida, especially in the Orlando Metro area. They moved to Florida due to its cultural similarities, the poor economic conditions in Puerto Rico, and after Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2018. The remaining Latino population is very diverse, hailing from various countries in South America including Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, etc.

Florida has been crowned as one of the best places to retire due to its weather and beaches. Thus the state also has a large retiree population. 20% of the population is over 65 years of age.

Florida Senate Polls 2022: Party Registration

Florida has been a reliable swing state since 1992 fiercely contested between the 2 major parties.

In the last 20 years, the Republican party has grown more powerful in Florida and has been able to win over most state-level elected offices. Currently, except for the Agriculture Commissioner, it holds nearly each and every single office in the state including the 2 Senate seats and 16/27 US House Representative Seats.

As per the latest figures released by the Florida Secretary of State:-