Ohio Senate Polls 2022: JD Vance Wins Ohio Senate Race
Vote Counts
- JD Vance: 53.7%
- Tim Ryan: 46.3%
Exit Polls
- Men: Vance 55%, Ryan 44%
- Women: Vance 46%, Ryan 53%
Vance is underperforming DeWine (R) by 7-10 points
Ohio Senate Polls 2022 Average: Tim Ryan (D) 44.6%, JD Vance (R) 52.3%.
Google Search Volume: Tim Ryan 45%, JD Vance 55%
Social Media Sentiments: Tim Ryan -19.4%, Vance -49.4%
When Is the Ohio Senate Race 2022?
The Ohio Senate election will be held on November 8th, 2022 to elect a new member to the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio.
Ohio Senate Candidates 2022
Democratic party candidate Tim Ryan, 49, has been a US Representative for Ohio since 2003. He has been a member of the Subcommittees on Defense, Veteran Affairs, and the Legislative Branch.
Republican party candidate JD Vance, 38, has had a diverse career starting in the US Marine Corps as a journalist between 2003 and 2007, graduating from Yale Law School in 2013, working at Peter Thiel’s VC fund Mithril Capital in 2016, publishing the Hillibilly Elegy in 2016 (which was adapted as a movie directed by Ron Howard). JD Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump.
Ohio Senate Race 2022 Predictions: Who is Gaining?
While Vance is narrowly ahead in the polls, Tim Ryan is ahead on Google Search and Social Media Volumes.
- Polls – Steady
- Google Search – JD Vance
- Social Media Sentiments – JD Vance
Observations and Insights
- JD Vance leads Tim Ryan by 1 point in the Ohio Senate race. In the same state, Incumbent Mike DeWine leads Nan Whaley by 18 points in the Ohio Gubernatorial race.
- Vance is underperforming 2016 Republican candidate Rob Portman by nearly 9 points.
- Why is JD Vance Underperforming Mike DeWine?
- JD Vance has a net favorability rating of 6 points. Mike DeWine has a 24-point net favorability rating
- Tim Ryan has a net favorability rating of 9 points which is higher than JD Vance. DeWine’s rival Nan Whaley is not known to most voters and she suffers from a Negative Favorability rating.
- A combination of a competitive Republican primary and Tim Ryan distancing himself from Joe Biden’s policies have kept the race close.
- Will JD Vance win the race?
- JD Vance is quite likely to win the race given his advantage among key demographic groups
- The advantage is driven by the current high inflation which is most important for nearly half the voters
- Recent election results suggest that Republicans outnumber Democrats and even the Independents classify themselves as moderates making it that much more difficult for Tim Ryan to win the election.
- Unlike the 2016 Ohio Senate Race, more voters are undecided at this point in time. Many of these voters had voted Republican in previous races giving Vance an opportunity to build a bigger lead.
- Vance hasn’t trailed in a single poll in 2 weeks
- Will Tim Ryan win the race?
- Tim Ryan is unlikely to win the race
- Despite his attempts to distance himself from Joe Biden, man voters don’t see it that way.
- While Donald Trump and Abortion are major reasons to vote for Tim Ryan, that is a reason for a smaller number of voters than those who think the economy is the top factor in voting for a candidate.
- The only scenario for Tim Ryan is if female turnout exceeds historic numbers. If that happens, a combination of Democrats and Independent women could help Ryan win the election.
Ohio Senate Race: The Issues
- For the upcoming Ohio Senate race, the key issues determining the choice of voters are Economic Issues, Threats to Democracy, Immigration, Abortion, National Gun Policies, Crime, Radical Justice, and Climate Change.
- The Republicans and the Independent voters are highly concerned about the Economic Issue. Around 62% of the voters are concerned about the economic condition.
Ohio Senate Polls: Vance vs Ryan Polls
| Average of All Polls | November 8th |
| JD Vance (R) | 52.3% |
| Tim Ryan (D) | 44.6% |
| Civiqs | November 7th |
| JD Vance | 51% |
| Tim Ryan | 46% |
| Research Co | November 6th |
| JD Vance | 52% |
| Tim Ryan | 44% |
| The Trafalgar Group | November 5th |
| JD Vance | 54% |
| Tim Ryan | 44% |
| 2016 Polling Average | October 17th |
| Rob Portman (R) | 55.0% |
| Ted Strickland | 39.3% |
Ohio Senate Race polls: Google Search Trends
- JD Vance: 55%
- Tim Ryan: 45%
Ohio Senate Race Polls: Social Media Sentiment
Last 7 days
- Vance: (-49.4%)
- Tim Ryan: (-19.4%)
Ryan vs Vance Polls: Total Fundraising Details
For the upcoming Ohio Senate election, Tim Ryan has been able to raise a huge fund to support his campaign. As of now the total funds raised by Tim Ryan stands slightly over $21M. Of the total funds raised, Ryan has spent around $18M and is now left with around $3.5M cash in hand.
J D Vance on the other hand has not been able to raise funds as much as raised by Tim Ryan. J D Vance has raised around $3.6M to fund his campaign. Of the $3.6M he has already spent around $3M which leaves him with $600K cash in hand as of June 30th.
Ohio Senate Polls 2022: Outside Spending by the Candidates
Talking about the spending outside the funds raised, J D Vance is way ahead of Tim Ryan. J D Vance has had a spending of over $23 M in 2022. This includes the spending during the Primary election.
In comparison, Tim Ryan’s spending has been around $30,500.
The frontrunner in the primary will go on to contest in the US Senate race in 2022 on the party ticket. As of now, these are the candidates but do watch out for more candidates who may join in in the upcoming future from both parties as the primary is still a long way off.