Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Tina Kotek Elected Governor of Oregon

November 10, 2022

Election Day Update

Vote Counts

Tina Kotek: 46.8%
Christine Drazan: 43.8%
Betsy Johnson: 8.7%

72% of the votes counted.

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: The latest Oregon Governor Polls give the Democrat Tina Kotek a marginal lead.

Oregon Governor Poll Numbers:Johnson: 7.3%, Kotek: 45.7%, Drazan: 43.3%

Google Search Share: Johnson: 18%, Kotek: 42%, Drazan: 40%.
Social Media Sentiment: Drazan: -34.8%, Kotek: -34.4%, Johnson: -19.8%.

The Oregon Governor election will be held on November 8th, 2022 to elect a new governor of Oregon. Incumbent Kate Brown will not be contesting re-elections due to two terms limit.

For the office of Governor, three candidates, namely Tina Kotek (Democrat), Christine Drazan (Republican), and Betsy Johson (Independent) are in the fray.

2022 Oregon Governor Race Predictions: Who is Gaining?

Tina Kotek leads by 2 points with a strong momentum before election day.
Among high-quality pollsters, Kotek leads by 2 points
Over the last 30 days, Drazan has gained 8 points while Tina Kotek has gained 12 points.
On Google, Tina Kotek remains ahead while on Social Media, Kotek appears to have managed negative feelings towards her and is now on par with Drazan

Oregon Governor Race: Who will win the Election?

Tina Kotek is well-placed to win the election after strong pre-election momentum.

Oregon Governor Race Polls: Observations and Insights

Tina Kotek Polls: Why is Tina Kotek In Trouble?
- Tina Kotek had a (-)11% favorability rating in the last two Polls. Drazan was at 0% and Johnson is at (-)18% [Combining Hoffman and Data for Progress Poll]
- The cost of Living in Oregon is also hurting Tina Kotek. Only 30% believe that the state is moving in the right direction. Oregon has had a huge surge in crime* (see table below) which has now become an important issue for voters.
- Homelessness and Healthcare are 3rd on the list, followed by Public education. The abortion issue is 5th on the list which may be a concern for Tina Kotek as the Democratic Party is highly banking on the abortion issue.
- One of the important factors that are hurting Tina Kotek is that just 34% of the registered voters are registered as Democrats, and 40% of the voters are unaffiliated or Independent.
- Tina Kotek will have to win 25-30% of the Unaffiliated/ Independent vote to win the election. She is (-)29% among these voters. Drazan is at (-)6% while Johnson is at (-10%)
Where is Tina Kotek underperforming Ron Wyden (D)?
- Among Independent voters, Kotek is Underperforming fellow Democrat Senator Ron Wyden by 15 points
- Among those older than 45, Kotek is underperforming by 11 points
- Among those with a College education, Kotek is underperforming by 11 points
Could Tina Kotek Still win? Johnson may be bleeding Independent voters from Drazan
- No new polls have been released during the last few days but Kotek appears to have a slim edge over Drazan even as Johnson loses momentum. Tina Kotek has gained the most from Betsy Johnson
- Ironically, a lot of Tina Kotek’s gains came after Joe Biden’s visit to Oregon. Consequently, The Civics poll suggests that Democrats are now fully behind Tina Kotek which means that Johnson is now restricted to bleeding votes among Independent voters. In fact, one could argue that Johnson’s presence is helping Kotek
- The latest debate is an example, the anti-Kotek sentiment was absorbed by Johnson and overall, Tina Kotek ended with much better social media sentiments than Drazan.
- Tina Kotek’s Arithmetic could be as follows- Base of 34% Democrats plus 20% from unaffiliated voters tallying to a total of 42%. She will then have to hope that Johnson wins at least 15% of the vote to win the election by a narrow margin.
Could Drazan Win the Oregon Governor Race?
- A major factor that favors Christine Drazan is the unpopularity of the Democrat Governor. The incumbent governor is the most unpopular Governor in the United States. This factor may have a negative influence on the chances of Democrat Tina Kotek. Just 40% approve of the job being done by Kate Brown, and 56% disapprove of her job
- Drazan could start with about 32% (Base of Republican voters – Data for Progress). She will need to win about 30% of the Independent voters to end above 42% and win the race.
- As things stand today, Drazan has a better chance than Tina Kotek to win the race but not enough to call the race in her favor.
Where is Johnson hurting Drazan?
- Tina Kotek has a Net favorability of (-11) while Ron Wyden is at +12. On Favorability alone, Kotek trails Wyden by 10 points. Yet, Christine Drazan leads fellow Republican Senate Candidate Jo Rae Perkins by just 3 points.
- Among Independent voters, Kotek’s favorability is just 32, 20 points lower than Ron Wyden. Only 43% of Independent voters have a negative opinion of Drazan, In theory, she should poll most of the rest but she polls only 60% of these voters with the rest voting for Betsy Johnson
- Drazan will need to persuade voters of Johnson that they are better off voting for her. That should safely deliver the race to her.

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Latest Tina Kotek Polls

Average of all Polls	Nov 8th
*Kotek (D)*	*45.7%*
*Drazan (R)*	*43.3%*
*Johnson (I)*	*7.3%*
Data for Progress	Nov 1st-6th
*Kotek (D)*	*48%*
*Drazan (R)*	*44%*
*Johnson (I)*	7%
Nelson Research	Oct 31 – Nov 2
*Kotek (D)*	*43%*
*Drazan (R)*	*45%*
*Johnson (I)*	6%
Emerson	Oct 31-Nov 1
*Kotek (D)*	*46%*
*Drazan (R)*	*41%*
*Johnson (I)*	9%

Oregon’s performance under Kate Brown

Personal Income per Capita Growth – Better than National Average
Homicide Mortality – Lower than National Average
Annual Health Insurance (for an average 40-year-old) – Lower than the National Average

Tina Kotek’s Priorities

Tina Kotek promises to end the homelessness of veterans, families with children, unaccompanied young adults, and people 65 years and older by 2025.
Tina Kotek promises to impart medically-accurate sex education in school and also ensure safe reproductive health care for women.
Help Oregon’s workers to grow professionally by providing them with training and education through community colleges.
Help police and security officers gain training and transform them to match international standards of safety and justice.
Increase the age to purchase semi-automatic rifles from 18 to 21 and require a complete background check before issuing an arms license.

Christine Drazan’s Priorities

Fight for job growth in Oregon and ensure the protection of the family budget.
Declare homelessness as a state of Emergency and work towards expanding the housing provider.
Bring back the provision of government accountability and transparency.
Keep politics out of the classroom and teach our students how to think, not what to think.
End Governor Kate Brown’s mass prisoner release program.

Oregon Governor Election Polls: Google Search, Kotek vs Drazan vs Johnson

Google Search Volume: Last 7 Days

Tina Kotek: 42% (Steady)
Christine Drazan: 40% (Increased)
Betsy Johnson: 18% (Decreased)

Net Social Media Sentiment: Last 7 Days

Kotek: -34.4% (Steady)
Drazan: -34.8% (Improved)
Johnson: -19.8% (Steady)

Oregon Governor 2022 Candidate Profile

The Republican Candidate Christine Drazan, 50, is an Oregon House of Representatives from the 39th district. She was elected in the year 2019. She was born in Klamath Falls, Oregon. On January 4, 2022, Christine Drazan announced that she was running for the Republican nomination in the 2022 gubernatorial election. She resigned as Oregon House Representative on January 31st.

Tina Kotek, 56, the Democratic Party candidate is the longest-serving Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. She has been the speaker from 2013 to 2022. Before being elected as the Speaker, Kotek worked as the policy director of Children First for Oregon. On September 1, 2021, Kotek declared her candidacy for Governor in the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election.

The independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, 71, is the oldest among the three candidates running for the Governor’s office. Before 2021, Betsy Johnson was a Democratic but after 2021 she became an independent voter. Professionally she is an American aviator, entrepreneur, and politician. She served in the Oregon House of Representatives from the 1st and 31st districts from 2001 to 2005. She was also part of the Oregon Senate from the 16th district from 2005 to 2021. After leaving Democratic Party, Betsy Johnson, on October 14, 2021, announced that she was going to run as an independent in the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Oregon Governor Election: Cash in hand

Tina Kotek: $1.75 Million
Christine Drazan: $1.47 Million
Betsy Johnson: $4.12 Million

Oregon Governor Polls: Analysis of Voting Segments

29% of the population in Oregon lives in rural areas, and most of them vote Republican.

The median age of the population is 39 years of age. The ratio of the female population is 51% and males with 49% as per the current data. More than 40% of adults above 25 have a college degree, and many of them vote Democrat.

The large urban population without college degrees as well as a large rural population that typically favors republicans makes Oregon a swing state this election season.

White: 85%
Black: 2%
Others: 13%

As per the United State census, the total population of Oregon was 4,237,256 by 2020, and compared to the last census conducted in 2010 it has increased up to 10.17%.

According to the 2020 census, 13% of Oregon’s population is of Hispanic or Latino origin. In Oregon, the Mexican population is up to 10%, Puerto Rican 0.3%, and Cuban 0.1%. Portland is Oregon’s most diverse area while there are high concentrations of Mexican-Americans in Jefferson and Malheur counties.

The majority of the population is situated in Portland as it is located in the metro area. Oregon ranks 12th among the Asian American population and 10th among the Native American population. Oregon has one of the lowest populations of African American origin. This makes Oregon the 39th most densely populated state.

As per 2004 data, Oregon’s foreign-born population exceeds 300,000 and accounts for almost 9% of the total population.

There are five major ancestries living in Oregon: German 19%, Irish 11%, English 11%, American 5%, and Norwegian 3%.