Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Who Will Win Karnataka Election in 2023?
Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Congress: 90-92 seats, BJP: 94-96 seats, JD(s): 33-35 seats
Google Search Volume: BJP: 37% Congress: 56% JD(s): 7%
Karnataka 2023 Election Prediction: Congress has the edge but BJP is likely to make gains in Rural Karnataka
2023 will be a critical year for the BJP as it defends in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka while attempting to defeat the incumbent Congress Governments in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The next election for the legislative assembly of Karnataka will be held in the month of May 2023.
Karnataka has 224 Legislative Assembly seats. Karnataka like Odisha is a 3-way fight. The main contestants here are the BJP, Congress, and JD(S). Unlike most other states, the Congress unit in Karnataka is well organized and well funded after being in power for many years. The BJP on the other hand operates with unusual limitations including limited caste alignments and regional limitations on the account of the JD(S). To complicate matters, Former BJP leader Gali Janardhana Reddy on Christmas announced a political party named ‘Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha’ to serve the people of the Kalyana Karnataka region of seven districts – Bidar, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Kalaburagi, Ballari, and Vijayanagara.
Karnataka Election 2023 Date: Likely to be held between May 5th and May 20th of 2023
Karnataka 2023 Election Prediction: Who is Leading?
- Latest Karnataka Opinion Poll: BJP
- Google Trends: Congress
- Social Media Sentiment: JDS
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Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Observation and Insights
- The Polls show a huge variance between the two major parties’ seat forecasts and that itself means that the election will be closely fought.
- In the latest survey, 30% of the respondents approved of the incumbent BJP government in Karnataka, and 24% disapproved of the same.
- There are about 20 highly vulnerable BJP seats and another 9 JD(S) seats that could swing to the Congress party. These 29 could take the Congress party closer to 100 while also keeping BJP close to 100. This would then make the JD(S) once again a critical factor in the next Government formation.
Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll
| Average of Polls | 27th March 2023 |
| BJP | 94-96 |
| Congress | 90-92 |
| JDS | 33-35 |
| Karnataka TV Poll | Mar 26 |
| BJP | 107 |
| Congress | 75 |
| JDS | 36 |
| Lok Poll | Mar 10th |
| BJP | 77-83 |
| Congress | 116-122 |
| JDS | 21-27 |
| Karnataka TV | Jan 25th |
| BJP | 99 |
| Congress | 79 |
| JDS | 41 |
**Seats of the Independents/other parties not included.
Google Trends
- BJP: 37% (2017 December: 73%)
- Congress: 56% (2017: 23%)
- JDS: 7% (2017: 4%)
Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: -34%
- Congress: -30%
- JDS: -10%
Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Who will be the next CM of Karnataka 2023?
Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the top choice for chief minister among 28% of respondents in a recent survey conducted by South First-People’s Pulse. In comparison, the current Chief Minister and BJP leader Basavaraj Bommai is ranked second and preferred by 19%.
Around 18% picked former CM and JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy as their choice for the CM, and around 11% picked BJP candidate BS Yediyurappa. Only 5% of those who were asked chose DK Shivakumar, the president of the Congress party for Karnataka.
36% of respondents said they were considering the party’s Chief Ministerial candidate as the major factor for casting a vote while only 11% of respondents said that the party’s manifesto mattered for them to decide on who they wanted to vote for.
The latest polls show congress in the lead. While in the case of a hung verdict of elections, around 41% of respondents chose a Congress-JDS alliance, in contrast to 38% of those who chose a BJP-JDS coalition.
Corruption leads the chart as the “major concern” for the voters of Karnataka followed by women’s safety and rising inflation. 38% of those who were asked opined that Congress was better for Karnataka’s development while around 36% believe the same for BJP. A majority (54%) of respondents seemed satisfied with their MLA’s performance and wanted them to be re-elected.
How the parties are reacting to the possibility of a hung election verdict?
Since its inception, JDS has been in power twice, that too in a coalition with BJP and congress each time. However, for May 2023, the party has set an ambitious target for itself under ‘Mission 123’ to win at least 123 seats out of the 224 to form an independent government. Despite the party’s strong regional presence and extended campaigning, most polls and surveys are predicting a hung verdict as was the case in 2004, 2008, and 2018. To add to that even political leaders from both BJP and Congress are influencing the voters to not vote for JDS. The BJP has explicitly mentioned that it has no plans to form an alliance with the JDS before or after the polls.
The JDS has a strong hold over the Old Mysore region, Mandya, and Raichur district and is looking to grow beyond it. Kumaraswamy plans to cover most constituencies on his statewide tour “Pancharatna Ratha Yatra” which includes plans to implement quality education, health, housing, farmer welfare, and employment is once chosen to power. While the BJP is focusing intensively on the Old Mysore region (64 seats, it is the incumbent in 13 of them); Bangalore where it has 16 of the 28 seats; and in the Kalyan Karnataka area which has 40 seats
What are the chances of Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha in the Assembly elections in 2023?
A series of surveys conducted by Crowdwisdom360 suggest that an aggressive anti-Govt position will not help the party as frustration is not widespread. The recommended approach would be focused on delivering on promises. Education and employment seem to be the key issues concerning people. There is increased frustration amongst voters regarding inadequate infrastructure, unemployment, and widespread corruption. The survey results reflect that KRPP has a very selective presence in the state. Out of the polled seats, KRPP seems to be in lead for Gangavati & Bellary constituencies. It also seems to have a decent presence in the Vijaynagar district.
Karnataka Assembly Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Congress vs BJP Governance Performance
- Per Capita GDP
- Congress (2015-2018):42.9%
- BJP (2018-2021): 27.2%
- Industry Performance
- Congress (2015-2018):41.7%
- BJP (2018-2021): 5.1%
- Foodgrains
- Congress (2015-2018):-2.9%
- BJP (2018-2021): +23.4%
- Power Availability
- Congress (2015-2018):13.0%
- BJP (2018-2021): +1.7%
- Unemployment Rate
- Congress (2018):1.6%
- BJP (2022): +1.8%
- Reading and Numerical Ability (Standard 1 to 3)
- Congress (2018): Better in 2
- BJP (2022): Better in 4
According to the key metrics data compiled by crowdwisdom360, the state under the leadership of Siddaramaiah and the INC performed better in terms of economy, industrial development, Power availability, and Infrastructure development while the agriculture sector is being better managed by the BJP government.
The state’s growth rate of the Net domestic product under the leadership of Congress was around 43% while during BJP’s rule, it dipped to the growth rate of 27% (from 2017-18 to 2020-21).
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Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Raichur Seat Predictions
- Raichur-
- Devdurga Seat: JDS (67%)
- Maski: INC (67%)
- Raichur Rural: INC (66%)
- Sindhanur: JDS (58%)
**Data compiled from surveys conducted by crowdwisdom360
Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: About the Party
Bhartiya Janata Party
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a significant presence in Karnataka’s politics. In the 2018 Karnataka state assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 104 out of 224 seats, but fell short of the majority required to form the government. However, they were able to form the government in Karnataka in 2019 after several members of the Congress-JD(S) coalition defected to the BJP.
Currently, the BJP is the ruling party in Karnataka. The BJP has been focusing on implementing their development agenda in the state and has been launching various programs and initiatives to achieve this goal. They have also been focusing on strengthening their organizational structure in the state to ensure their continued dominance in the upcoming state assembly elections in 2023.
Congress
The Indian National Congress is one of the major political parties in Karnataka and has a significant presence in the state’s politics. In the 2018 Karnataka state assembly elections, the Congress won 80 seats and formed a coalition government with the Janata Dal (Secular) party.
The Congress has been focusing on issues such as unemployment, farmers’ welfare, and economic growth in the state. They have been critical of the BJP-led government’s policies and have been highlighting what they perceive as failures of the government in addressing these issues.
Recently, Congress has been facing internal struggles in the state, with factionalism and leadership issues affecting the party’s stability. However, the Congress is expected to contest the upcoming Karnataka state assembly elections in 2023 with renewed vigor and is likely to emerge as a major contender for power in the state.
Janata Dal (Secular)
The Janata Dal (Secular) or JDS is a regional political party in Karnataka that has been a significant player in the state’s politics. The party was formed in 1999, and its base is primarily in the southern parts of Karnataka.
In the 2018 Karnataka state assembly elections, the JDS won 37 seats and formed a coalition government with the Indian National Congress. However, the coalition government collapsed in 2019 after several of its members defected to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which resulted in the BJP forming the government in Karnataka.
The JDS has been focusing on issues such as farmers’ welfare, rural development, and social justice. The party has been critical of the BJP-led government’s policies and has been advocating for an alternative development model that focuses on the welfare of marginalized communities.
The JDS is expected to contest the upcoming Karnataka state assembly elections in 2023 and is likely to play a significant role in the formation of the next government in the state.
Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Demography
Karnataka is the 8th largest state in the country in terms of population. Karnataka’s population in 2022 is estimated to be 6.73 crores with the majority of the population belonging to the Hindu religion.
As per the last census, there are 5.1 crores (84.00%) of the population are Hindu. There is a 7.8 million Muslim population, around 13% of the total population. As per the last census, 1.1 million (1.87%) were Christian, 0.72% were Jains around 440,280, 95,710(0.16%) were Buddhist, 28,773(0.05%) were Sikh and 0.02% were belonging to other religions.0.27 % of the population did not state their religion.
Karnataka has a huge population of Vokhalinga in the southern part of the state and Northern Karnataka has a big population of Lingayat. There are some tribes Nayaka, Soliga, and Yerava.
The major Language spoken in Karnataka is Kannada. There are several caste groups found in the state which speak Konkani and Tamil, Tulu, and Hindi Language.
Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections
In 2008, the BJP under the leadership of B. S. Yeddyurappa came to the power for the first time in a southern state. However, the journey of the BJP government in Karnataka was not smooth. CM Yeddyurappa was forced to resign as Chief Minister in July 2011 due to his alleged involvement in a land scam. After that BJP changed two more Chief Ministers.
In 2013, BJP contested the Karnataka election under the leadership of Jagadish Shettar. BS Yeddyurappa formed his own party Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and it was able to dent BJP massively. The party was reduced to just 40 seats. Congress under Siddaramaiah won an absolute majority (122 seats) while JD(s) won the same number of seats as won by BJP.
In 2018, B. S. Yediyurappa was back in BJP and under his leadership party won 104 seats but fell short of the majority by 9 seats. Congress, which won 80 seats formed an alliance with JD(s) that won 37 seats and formed a coalition government headed by HD Kumaraswamy.
The government lasted for 14 months as 16 Legislators from the ruling coalition resigned and 2 independent MLAs switched their support towards BJP. The majority of the house then shrunk to 105 and during the majority test, HD Kumarasamy lost the trust vote by 100–107 in the house.
On 26 July 2019, B.S. Yeddyurappa took oath as the Chief Minister of Karnataka once again. On 26 July 2021, Yediyurappa resigned from Chief Minister’s post, and Basavaraj Bommai was sworn in as the new Chief Minister on 28 July 2021.
Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Caste Wise Voting Patterns in Karnataka Election 2018
The 2018 Karnataka elections concluded with the INC bagging the highest voting share of 38.14% followed by BJP at 36.35% and JDS at 18.3%. The voting share of Congress remained more or less the same as compared to 2013.
The BJP performed well amongst the upper caste (52% voting share), and Lingayat (62% voting share). It also won 18 out of the 22 seats in the coastline region with a 50% voting share. Amongst the OBC voters, the party remained a close second to Congress winning 37% voting share. Interestingly, BJP made great gains in terms of Christian voters bagging around 40% voting share.
Congress on the contrary won a major chunk of the Muslim votes (65%), The party made gains in its voting share from the Dalit and Adivasi communities (48% and 46% of voting shares). The party won around 42% of the voting share of the Hyderabad-Karnataka region. While JDS bagged 25 out of its 37 seats in the South Karnataka region.
