Karnataka Election Results 2023: Congress Sweeps Karnataka Elections with Historic Mandate
Karnataka Election Results 2023: the Congress party has secured the biggest mandate in Karnataka since 1989, clinching a staggering 135 seats out of the total 224 assembly seats.
Karnataka Exit Poll 2023 (Average of Polls): BJP: 92, INC: 107 seats, JD(s): 23 seats
Karnataka Election Opinion Polls (Average of Polls): BJP: 105 seats, INC: 91 seats, JD(s): 26 seats
Karnataka Election Results 2023: Result Recap
- The Congress party’s strong performance in the Karnataka Assembly elections, securing 135 seats, indicates a clear win and a significant mandate from the electorate.
- The BJP’s reduced tally of 65 seats suggests a setback for the party, which had hoped for a better outcome in the elections.
- D K Shivakumar, the state president of the Congress party, achieved a resounding victory in Kanakapura, receiving over 70 percent of the votes. This win boosts his chances of contending for the chief ministerial position.
- The chief ministerial race is expected to be between D K Shivakumar and former CM Siddaramaiah, the Congress legislature party leader. Siddaramaiah appears to be in a favorable position based on early indications of the numbers game.
- The Congress party’s strong performance can be attributed to its focused campaign on development and welfare programs, resonating with the voters in Karnataka.
- The outcome of the elections signifies a clear mandate for the Congress party, highlighting the people’s endorsement of its policies and leadership.
- The reduced seat count for the BJP reflects the challenges it faced in countering the Congress party’s campaign and capturing the voters’ support.
- The election results demonstrate the potential for a change in leadership in Karnataka, with the Congress party poised to form the government.
Karnataka Election Results 2023: What Did the Exit Polls Say
The Most Accurate Pollster of 2018, CNX: The India TV-CNX exit poll for the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections predicts that Congress may emerge as the single largest party, winning 110-120 seats out of the 224-seat assembly. The ruling BJP is expected to come in second with 80-90 seats, followed by Janata Dal(S) with 20-24 seats. Caste and community-wise vote share projections show Congress securing 72% of Kuruba votes, 19% of Lingayat votes, and 82% of Muslim votes. BJP may receive 70% of Lingayat votes and 52% of OBC votes, while JD(S) is likely to secure 53% of Vokkaliga votes.
Top National Exit Pollster: The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts that Congress will return to power in Karnataka with 122-140 seats, while the BJP will finish second with 62-80 seats. The Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to secure 20-25 seats.
National Pollster Cvoter: The ABP-CVoter Karnataka Exit Poll 2023 predicts that Congress will emerge as the single largest party but fall short of a clear majority with 100-112 assembly seats. The incumbent BJP is expected to win 83-95 seats, losing ground compared to the 2018 election. The Janata Dal (Secular) is projected to secure 21-29 seats, potentially playing the role of kingmaker in the event of a hung assembly.
The South First-Peoples Pulse Exit Poll for the Karnataka Assembly elections 2023 predicts a clear edge for the Congress party, with a possible majority. The Congress is expected to secure 42% of the vote share, translating to 107-119 seats, a 4% increase compared to 2018. The BJP is predicted to win 78-90 seats with a 36% vote share, while the JD(S) may secure 23-29 seats with a 16% vote share. The Congress party’s Siddaramaiah is the top choice for chief minister with 42% of respondents choosing him. The Exit Poll survey was conducted on polling day, May 10, 2023, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
Excluding the above pollsters, the range from other forecasters is
- INC: Ranging from 86 to 135 seats
- BJP: Ranging from 65 to 114 seats
- JD(S): Ranging from 12 to 33 seats
- Others: Ranging from 0 to 6 seats
The majority mark in the 224-member Karnataka Legislative Assembly is 113 seats. Some polls, like News 24-Today’s Chanakya, Times Now-ETG, and Ground Zero Exit Poll, predict a clear majority for INC. However, other polls, such as News Nation-CGS and Republic TV-P MARQ, suggest a hung assembly.
Karnataka Election Results 2023: Pre-Election Analysis
Karnataka Election Prediction 2023: Assembly elections in Karnataka will be held on May 10 and the results will be declared on May 13. For BJP the election will be crucial as this will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In the last Karnataka Assembly election, despite BJP failing to win the majority, it emerged as the single largest party.
A defeat for BJP may hit a major roadblock in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In 2019 BJP won 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Karnataka Election Predictions: Karnataka has 224 Legislative Assembly seats. Karnataka like Odisha is a 3-way fight. The main contestants here are the BJP, Congress, and JD(S). Unlike most other states, the Congress unit in Karnataka is well organized and well funded after being in power for many years.
The BJP on the other hand operates with unusual limitations including limited caste alignments and regional limitations on the account of the JD(S). To complicate matters, Former BJP leader Gali Janardhana Reddy on Christmas announced a political party named ‘Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha’ to serve the people of the Kalyana Karnataka region of seven districts – Bidar, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Kalaburagi, Ballari, and Vijayanagara.
Karnataka Exit Polls 2023: Who is Leading?
- Latest Karnataka Exit Poll: Congress
- Google Trends: BJP
- Social Media Sentiment: JDS
Karnataka Election Ticket Distribution
Bhartiya Janata Party
- Brahmins: 13 candidates
- Lingayats: 67 candidates
- Vokkaligas: 42 candidates
- ST: 17 candidates
- SC: 37 candidates
- OBC: 40 candidates
- Kurubas: 7
- Jain: 1
- Christians: 0
- Muslims: 0
BJP has 11 women candidates while among the top three political parties of the state, BJP is the only party with no Muslim and Christian candidate.
Indian National Congress
- Brahmins: 7 candidates
- Lingayats: 51 candidates
- Vokkaligas: 43 candidates
- ST: 16 candidates
- SC: 35 candidates
- OBC: 40 candidates
- Kurubas: 14 candidates
- Jain: 1 candidate
- Christians: 3 candidates
- Muslims: 12 candidates
Congress has fielded 12 women candidates while has 2nd highest number of Lingayats in the fray after the BJP.
- Brahmins: 2 candidates
- Lingayats: 44 candidates
- Vokkaligas: 54 candidates
- ST: 14 candidates
- SC: 34 candidates
- OBC: 28 candidates
- Kurubas: 10 candidates
- Jain: 1 candidate
- Christians: 1 candidate
- Muslims: 23 candidates
JD(s) fielded more Muslim candidates compared to Congress while 13 women candidates will be on the ballot on JD(s)’s symbol.
2018 Castewise Seats Won
In 2018, Congress had 16 MLAs Lingayat MLAs while BJP had most 38 MLAs. Only 4 Lingayats managed to win on JD(s) ticket. Among Vokkaligas, 11 won on Congress ticket, 8 from the BJP, and 23 from as JD(S) candidate.
10 Brahmin candidates won on the BJP ticket while 4 won on the Congress ticket. Among the Kuruba, 10 Congress candidates won, 2 won as JD(s) candidates, and 1 as a BJP ticket.
BJP had the most SC MLAs, 16, while had 12, and JD(s) had 6. Among ST Seats, the Congress and BJP won eight each, and JD(S) won 1.
Muslim candidates won only on Congress’ ticket. They had 7 Muslim MLAs. One Christian candidate also won on Congress’ ticket.
Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: What Did the Opinion Polls Say?
Here is the summary of 5 different polls released by the local channels in Karnataka:
|ABP News C- Voter||73-85||110-122||21-29|
|News18 & Convergent||105||87||32|
|Zee News & Matrize||103-115||79-91||26-36|
Mean of Polls
- ABP News C-Voter: BJP: 79, INC: 116, JD(s): 25
- TV9 Survey: BJP: 108, INC: 94, JD(s): 21
- Suvarna News(JKB): BJP: 107, INC: 92, JD(s): 23
- News18 & Convergent: BJP: 105, INC: 87, JD(s): 32
- Zee News & Matrize: BJP: 109, INC: 85, JD(s): 31
Opinion Poll Karnataka 2023: Google Trends and Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: 59% (2017 December: 73%)
- Congress: 31% (2017: 23%)
- JDS: 10% (2017: 4%)
Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: -17%
- Congress: -23%
- JDS: -2%
Congress vs BJP Governance Performance
- Per Capita GDP
- Congress (2015-2018): 42.9%
- BJP (2018-2021): 27.2%
- Industry Performance
- Congress (2015-2018): 41.7%
- BJP (2018-2021): 5.1%
- Congress (2015-2018):-2.9%
- BJP (2018-2021): +23.4%
- Power Availability
- Congress (2015-2018):13.0%
- BJP (2018-2021): +1.7%
- Unemployment Rate
- Congress (2018):1.6%
- BJP (2022): +1.8%
- Reading and Numerical Ability (Standard 1 to 3)
- Congress (2018): Better in 2
- BJP (2022): Better in 4
According to the key metrics data compiled by Crowdwisdom360, the state under the leadership of Siddaramaiah and the INC performed better in terms of economy, industrial development, Power availability, and Infrastructure development while the agriculture sector is being better managed by the BJP government.
The state’s growth rate of the Net domestic product under the leadership of Congress was around 43% while during BJP’s rule, it dipped to the growth rate of 27% (from 2017-18 to 2020-21).
Opinion Poll Karnataka 2023: Region-Wise Tally
- Mumbai Karnataka: NDA- 3-7; UPA:- 40-46, JDS-0-2
- Central Karnataka: NDA- 19-23 UPA- 3-7
- Coastal Karnataka: NDA–10-14; UPA- 5-9
- Hyderabad Karnataka: NDA- 2-4; UPA-31-37; JDs- 2-4
- Southern Karnataka: NDA- 10-14, UPA- 26-32, JDS- 15-19
- Banglore: NDA- 6-10, UPA- 16-20, JDS- 1-3
Karnataka Exit Poll 2023: Latest Developments
In a surprising turn of events, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership remains unruffled by the exit polls that predict a looming defeat in the upcoming elections in Karnataka. Despite most pollsters forecasting a challenging outcome, the BJP leaders have found a silver lining in the last-minute surge of voters and are steadfast in their belief of securing an absolute majority in the state.
The BJP, known for its resilience and strategic political maneuvering, has often defied poll predictions in the past. This time is no different, as the party’s leaders display an unwavering confidence that stems from their grassroots support and a surge in support from the electorate in the final stages of the election campaign.
Political pundits and analysts have closely monitored the political landscape in Karnataka, recognizing the BJP’s steadfast commitment to win over voters until the last moment. The party’s dedicated cadre and robust ground-level organization have been working tirelessly to rally support and connect with voters across the state. Their efforts seem to have paid off, with a significant surge in voter turnout observed in the final phase of the campaign.
While the exit polls may indicate a different story, seasoned BJP leaders point out that exit polls are not always accurate in reflecting the true sentiment of the electorate. They argue that the last-minute voter surge has the potential to tilt the scales in their favor, leading to a surprise victory for the party.
Furthermore, the BJP leaders emphasize the enduring appeal of their development-oriented agenda, which resonates strongly with the people of Karnataka. The party’s track record in delivering economic growth, infrastructure development, and effective governance in other states has earned it a considerable reputation among voters. They firmly believe that the electorate will recognize and reward these accomplishments at the ballot box, despite the challenging political climate.
Opinion Poll Karnataka 2023: Key Seats
The political parties entering the political battlefield in Karnataka have announced the names of their candidates. Karnataka has a total of 224 assembly seats, however, there are some key seats that every political enthusiast will have a close watch of.
Varuna will be one of the most closely followed seats. The reason behind this is the candidates. Former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is the Congress candidate. But he has a strong challenge in this seat. Current state housing minister V Somanna — a sitting MLA from Govindaraja Nagar in Bengaluru is pitted against the Y Siddharamaiah. Mr. Siddharamaiah had contested from Chamundeshwari and Badami in 2018 and had won Badami seat. But this time he is contesting from none of the two seats.
Kanakapura is the Congress stronghold and since 1989, the current Congress state President DK Shivakumar has been winning from this seat. Shivakumar is once again contesting from Kanakapura. BJP has fielded R Ashoka from this seat. R Ashoka will be contesting from Padmanaba Nagar and Kanakapura constituencies.
Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is the sitting MLA from this constituency. This seat is highly dominated by the Lingayat voters who have voted in favor of Bommai.
Former Karnataka Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy’s son, Nikhil Kumaraswamy is contesting from this seat. His mother Anitha Kumaraswamy is the current MLA from this seat. BJP has fielded Goutham Gowda from this seat.
Once a JD(s) stronghold, in 2018 BJP candidate J Preetham Gowda won from this seat. This time again, J Preetham Gowda will be contested but the issue is with the JD(s) candidate. Former Minister and son of HD Deve Gowda, H.D. Revanna has threatened to field his wife as an independent candidate if she is not given a ticket for this seat. However, the former CM HD Kumaraswamy is firm in his stand and said that he will field an ordinary worker in Hassan.
Karnataka Opinion Polls 2023: Analysis of Rallies
Insights and analysis:
- The BJP and the Congress are the two main political parties in the state, and both have been relying on their core agendas to attract voters in the assembly elections.
- The BJP is emphasizing national security, while the Congress is promising reservations and various freebies.
- The BJP is also using controversial issues such as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), National Register of Citizens (NRC), and job reservations for Muslims to attract voters.
- The Congress, on the other hand, is focusing on bringing back the Muslim quota, higher reservations for various classes, and cash handouts and freebies.
- The Bajrang Dal controversy has become a major issue in the election campaign, with the Congress promising to ban the organization and the BJP using it to their advantage.
both parties are using populist strategies to appeal to voters, with the BJP emphasizing national security and controversial issues, while the Congress is offering reservations and freebies. The Bajrang Dal controversy has become a polarizing issue in the campaign, with both parties trying to use it to their advantage.
Karnataka Election 2023: What do BJP and Congress Say in their Manifesto
BJP Manifesto Observations and Analysis:
- The BJP manifesto for the Karnataka assembly elections has a mix of promises and freebies targeted toward different sections of society.
- The party has promised three free cooking gas cylinders and half a litre of Nandini milk daily to BPL families and a matching deposit scheme for women of SC/ST households.
- The party has also promised to set up “Atal food centres” and turn Karnataka into a premier hub of electric vehicles by setting up charging stations, supporting startups, and converting BMTC buses into fully electric buses.
- The BJP has set a target to make Karnataka a $1 trillion economy by 2032.
- The focus on developing electric vehicles and setting up charging stations could be seen as a positive step towards promoting sustainable transportation and reducing carbon emissions.
- The matching deposit scheme for women of SC/ST households could help empower and financially support women in these communities.
Congess Manifesto Observations and analysis:
- The party promises to raise job quotas for various groups, provide free power, food grains, and travel, and offer a monthly allowance to unemployed graduates and diploma holders.
- The party also promises to provide a monthly allowance to households led by women and to offer startup funds, subsidies, and soft loans to businesses.
- The Congress manifesto seems to be targeted towards different segments of society, including the unemployed, women, and entrepreneurs.
- The party’s focus on providing freebies and benefits could be seen as an attempt to attract voters who are looking for immediate relief and support.
- However, some critics might argue that the Congress manifesto is not focused enough on creating long-term economic growth and job creation.
- The startup funds and subsidies promised by the party could be seen as a positive step towards promoting entrepreneurship and business development in the state.
Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: FAQs
Karnataka Election 2023 Prediction: Who will be the next CM of Karnataka 2023?
Best CM of Karnataka: Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the top choice for chief minister among 28% of respondents in a recent survey conducted by South First-People’s Pulse. In comparison, the current Chief Minister and BJP leader Basavaraj Bommai is ranked second and preferred by 19%.
Around 18% picked former CM and JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy as their choice for the CM, and around 11% picked BJP candidate BS Yediyurappa. Only 5% of those who were asked chose DK Shivakumar, the president of the Congress party for Karnataka.
36% of respondents said they were considering the party’s Chief Ministerial candidate as the major factor for casting a vote while only 11% of respondents said that the party’s manifesto mattered for them to decide on who they wanted to vote for.
The latest polls show congress in the lead. While in the case of a hung verdict of elections, around 41% of respondents chose a Congress-JDS alliance, in contrast to 38% of those who chose a BJP-JDS coalition.
Corruption leads the chart as the “major concern” for the voters of Karnataka followed by women’s safety and rising inflation. 38% of those who were asked opined that Congress was better for Karnataka’s development while around 36% believe the same for BJP. A majority (54%) of respondents seemed satisfied with their MLA’s performance and wanted them to be re-elected.
How the parties are reacting to the possibility of a hung election verdict?
Since its inception, JDS has been in power twice, that too in a coalition with BJP and congress each time. However, for May 2023, the party has set an ambitious target for itself under ‘Mission 123’ to win at least 123 seats out of the 224 to form an independent government. Despite the party’s strong regional presence and extended campaigning, most polls and surveys are predicting a hung verdict as was the case in 2004, 2008, and 2018. To add to that even political leaders from both BJP and Congress are influencing the voters to not vote for JDS. The BJP has explicitly mentioned that it has no plans to ally with the JDS before or after the polls.
The JDS has a strong hold over the Old Mysore region, Mandya, and Raichur district and is looking to grow beyond it. Kumaraswamy plans to cover most constituencies on his statewide tour “Pancharatna Ratha Yatra” which includes plans to implement quality education, health, housing, farmer welfare, and employment is once chosen to power. While the BJP is focusing intensively on the Old Mysore region (64 seats, it is the incumbent in 13 of them); Bangalore where it has 16 of the 28 seats; and in the Kalyan Karnataka area which has 40 seats
Karnataka Election 2023 Prediction: What are the chances of Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha in the Assembly elections in 2023?
A series of surveys conducted by Crowdwisdom360 suggest that an aggressive anti-Govt position will not help the party as frustration is not widespread. The recommended approach would be focused on delivering on promises. Education and employment seem to be the key issues concerning people. There is increased frustration amongst voters regarding inadequate infrastructure, unemployment, and widespread corruption.
Karnataka Election 2023 prediction: The survey results reflect that KRPP has a very selective presence in the state. Out of the polled seats, KRPP seems to be in lead for Gangavati & Bellary constituencies. It also seems to have a decent presence in the Vijaynagar district.
Opinion Poll Karnataka 2023: Summary of Previous Elections
In 2008, the BJP under the leadership of B. S. Yeddyurappa came to the power for the first time in a southern state. However, the journey of the BJP government in Karnataka was not smooth. CM Yeddyurappa was forced to resign as Chief Minister in July 2011 due to his alleged involvement in a land scam. After that BJP changed two more Chief Ministers.
In 2013, BJP contested the Karnataka election under the leadership of Jagadish Shettar. BS Yeddyurappa formed his own party Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and it was able to dent BJP massively. The party was reduced to just 40 seats. Congress under Siddaramaiah won an absolute majority (122 seats) while JD(s) won the same number of seats as won by BJP.
In 2018, B. S. Yediyurappa was back in BJP and under his leadership party won 104 seats but fell short of the majority by 9 seats. Congress, which won 80 seats formed an alliance with JD(s) that won 37 seats and formed a coalition government headed by HD Kumaraswamy.
The government lasted for 14 months as 16 Legislators from the ruling coalition resigned and 2 independent MLAs switched their support towards BJP. The majority of the house then shrunk to 105 and during the majority test, HD Kumarasamy lost the trust vote by 100–107 in the house.
On 26 July 2019, B.S. Yeddyurappa took oath as the Chief Minister of Karnataka once again. On 26 July 2021, Yediyurappa resigned from Chief Minister’s post, and Basavaraj Bommai was sworn in as the new Chief Minister on 28 July 2021.
Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Caste Wise Voting Patterns in Karnataka Election 2018
The 2018 Karnataka elections concluded with the INC bagging the highest voting share of 38.14% followed by BJP at 36.35% and JDS at 18.3%. The voting share of Congress remained more or less the same as compared to 2013.
The BJP performed well amongst the upper caste (52% voting share), and Lingayat (62% voting share). It also won 18 out of the 22 seats in the coastline region with a 50% voting share. Amongst the OBC voters, the party remained a close second to Congress winning 37% voting share. Interestingly, BJP made great gains in terms of Christian voters bagging around 40% voting share.
Congress on the contrary won a major chunk of the Muslim votes (65%), The party made gains in its voting share from the Dalit and Adivasi communities (48% and 46% of voting shares). The party won around 42% of the voting share of the Hyderabad-Karnataka region. While JDS bagged 25 out of its 37 seats in the South Karnataka region.
Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Demography
Karnataka is the 8th largest state in the country in terms of population. Karnataka’s population in 2022 is estimated to be 6.73 crores with the majority of the population belonging to the Hindu religion.
As per the last census, there are 5.1 crores (84.00%) of the population are Hindu. There is a 7.8 million Muslim population, around 13% of the total population. As per the last census, 1.1 million (1.87%) were Christian, 0.72% were Jains around 440,280, 95,710(0.16%) were Buddhist, 28,773(0.05%) were Sikh and 0.02% were belonging to other religions.0.27 % of the population did not state their religion.
Karnataka has a huge population of Vokhalinga in the southern part of the state and Northern Karnataka has a big population of Lingayat. There are some tribes Nayaka, Soliga, and Yerava.
The major Language spoken in Karnataka is Kannada. There are several caste groups found in the state which speak Konkani and Tamil, Tulu, and Hindi Language.